You’ll hear me lovingly describe Caroline Levy as someone that confidently dances to the beat of their own drum, but what I was referring to was my belief that the most successful people in business have conviction when others don't. Because don’t get it twisted…building conviction isn’t for the faint of heart. Yet, those courageous enough to go through the journey will find that if it’s coupled with passion…the result is electrifying. That statement I think perfectly quantifies Caroline Levy’s renowned career as one of the top equity analysts in the consumer space, trusted board member of brands like CELSIUS Holdings, Health-Ade, and Athletic Brewing, and overall strategic thinker that’s uncovered key consumer trends well before they became mainstream. Sounds right up my alley, right? So, I knew our conversation was going to be electric, but it honestly even exceeded my lofty expectations. Despite covering a ton of categorical ground in a relatively short amount of time…you can expect of deep conversation that spans from the dynamic energy drinks market to the emerging gut health functional beverage space…and even the disruptive non-alcoholic beer category. Moreover, we share our thoughts on why CPG brands should be focusing more on delivering value over volume. Finally, Caroline and I put on our economist hats…look into our CPG crystal balls and share some thoughts around the near-term outlook for beverage deals. But those are just some of the interesting topics we talked about in this episode...

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Amazon continues to expand its market leadership as the number one retailer of supplements ahead of even physical retail chains like Walmart. In the last year, Amazon has generated about $13 billion in categorical sales…up around 15% YoY. But the word "Amazon" also has created such a visceral reaction amongst much of the legacy supplement industry ecosystem. Depending on the person’s perspective you’re asking, you’ll get a slightly different reason for why they blame Amazon for the demise of the supplement industry (or should I say the previous version of the supplement industry they are nostalgic about). See…what I noticed starting in the mid-2010s was a collection of legacy supplement industry stakeholders growing continually more frantic about changing power dynamics. In fact, fear was quickly building that any semblance of yesteryear’s much tighter gatekept supplement industry ecosystem would soon be extinct. So, what do you do if you’re a cash cow generating legacy supplement industry player losing your gatekeeping powers? You utilize those massive internal resources to put leverage on who you believe ruined the “good ole days.” In terms of “how” these legacy supplement industry stakeholders are deploying those massive internal resources against Amazon…it's both backchanneling and then public-facing "compliance marketing" strategy. Regardless, it all rolls up into these previous gatekeepers calling on Amazon to reign in supplement industry bad actors by suggesting the online marketplace implement more and more compliance hurdles. This effort was arguably successful twice in 2021…as Amazon updated its requirements for listing dietary supplements on the platform. But that doesn’t appear to be enough…because there has been an uptick of public-facing pressure towards Amazon by these legacy supplement industry stakeholders. And even if Amazon hasn’t responded yet…this strategy might have done one better by indirectly getting the FDA’s attention, hence the three separate warning letters sent to Amazon from 8/18/23 to 12/20/23. But to help add some depth to the compliance side and balance my business perspective, I asked Brian Yam, who has two decades of regulatory affairs and quality assurance experience across every side of the supplement industry, to join me in a recent conversation. We deeply examined topics such as why the FDA is placing pressure on Amazon, if this could eventually lead to a market-bending precedent across today’s retail models, why FDA might be more effective placing proxy enforcement pressure elsewhere, plus we go talk about the under the radar short- and long-term possible implications to all supplement industry stakeholders.

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14 months after co-founding the private equity firm Skky Partners, Kim Kardashian finally took a bit of her own advice to "get your f*cking azz up and work." It was recently announced that the first capital investment for Skky Partners will be to acquire a “significant minority stake” in truffle-infused hot sauce and condiment brand TRUFF. Now…stick with me here for a moment because I’m going to connect some dots that will lead to a future Kim K investment. Skky Partners notes that food and beverage CPG won’t be its exclusive investment focus, but this TRUFF deal got me thinking about how Oprah loves truffles. Oprah also has her annual “favorite things” list, but this is about Kim K. So, what’s one of her favorite things from this year? In a Vogue interview, she shouted out Mid-Day Squares.

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In my world, hearing about (this or that) successful brand or person launching a new energy drink has become an almost weekly occurrence. I could understand how a casual market observer could easily get desensitized to it…or maybe even a bit dismissive like some pundits seem to have gotten about the trending functional beverage category. But I’ve tried to pride myself on deciphering what’s noise from who’s actually making music. When the energy drink brand Juvee launched in October 2022, I could tell there was some intent behind pairing the right audience and right product…plus choosing to launch with (and continue to support early) instant delivery partners like GoPuff. Additionally, what I believed was the smart decision to not make Juvee explicitly about the esports/gaming market despite having unique provenance within the hardcore of that growing niche market. But it was after an industry friend in common connected me with Sam Keene, Co-Founder of Juvee…that all my earlier thoughts started to make a lot more sense. In our conversation, Sam and I cover everything from how his early years at Red Bull had an outsized impact on the creation of Juvee a handful of years later. We also share insights about the growing importance of having an established audience/community when building within the CPG industry. Additionally, we talked through the interesting details behind last month’s acquisition of Juvee by the beverage portfolio Sprecher Brewing. Moreover, we explore what Sam’s most excited about post-deal…from the Juvee growth plan to his new CMO role being able to bring stories to life for each of the Sprecher brands. But those are just some of the interesting topics we talked about in this episode...

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Goodbye activewear brands just selling apparel and/or footwear. Hello activewear brands that are no longer constrained by their original categorical boundaries. From Nike to lululemon to Alo, these activewear brands aren’t just selling apparel…they’re selling a lifestyle. But I’ve started to pay closer attention to the strategic decisions at Alo of late because the brand keeps moving further into my domain…which is the emerging and intersecting categories of functional food, beverage, and nutritional supplements. I’m not going to provide all the product extension breadcrumbs here, but Alo reportedly started to originally develop a line of ingestible beauty and wellness supplements in 2019. With the pandemic-aided “work-from-home athleisure fashion trend” powering those next few years, Alo smartly put that project on the proverbial focus back burner. Then, in August 2023…Alo officially launched its Stackable Wellness System. The initial three ingestible beauty and wellness supplement SKUs were all utilizing a single-serving gel pack format…containing vitamins, minerals, and “hormone-balancing” adaptogens that addressed daily needs in skincare, immunity, and physical recovery. Along with the fact that most of these products sold out on Day 1, Alo also created a retail partnership with Sephora to sell its beauty and wellness segment. Feeling good from early feedback on its product extension strategy, Alo decided to double-down on the Stackable Wellness System last month by introducing five more SKUs…this time in the traditional capsule format. Those now eight SKUs of the Alo Stackable Wellness System (great or not) are only the entry fee to compete in the market. Instead, winners/losers in the broader consumer goods space (let alone CPG) are largely determined by what you build off those great products. This is why the smartest companies are focused less on product-based differentiation, as they know that competing on that alone will only provide a transient advantage. With today’s fast-follower low barriers-to-entry supplement business landscape, your best product features are too easy to copy and an insufficient defensible moat. The solution is having a bold strategic narrative…because that enables brands to create a unique story that will guide their entire internal and external business activity. Alo is a brand with a bold strategic narrative. In today’s marketplace, younger consumers are increasingly looking for visionary brands that are radically and bravely changing both our individual and global cultures with exciting and bold new lifestyle choices. It’s that strategic narrative boldness that attracts these younger consumers, but also provides a distinctiveness that’s highly defensible from competitive landscape perspective. By continually and almost gradually changing shape to predict its customers’ needs, Alo seeks to seamlessly become truly essential, visible, and celebrated parts of its customers’ lives without them even realizing it.

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When legacy CPG brands hear about trending movements like leveraging upcycled ingredients, I imagine all the oldheads sitting in a conference room acting like a scene from The Office. Oh…but then there’s the 117-year-old family-owned Spangler Candy Company, that’s headquartered in the great state of Ohio. See...the candy maker must have recently instituted “bring your Gen Z granddaughter or grandson to workday” because it just invented the perfect circularity strategy. The Spangler Candy Company produces arguably the most beloved Valentine’s Day product…those candy conversation hearts. Sweethearts are individually stamped with phrases using specialized but antiquated equipment. This printing process often creates mistakes like blurry or splotchy words. This year, the brand is spinning those mistakes as intentional, upcycling those unreadable candies into their own dedicated “Situationships” box so that young people can “give the gift as blurry as their relationships.”

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Premier Protein just confidently deployed a product strategy that could be key to its future growth…now it just needs to get the execution details right! BellRing Brands (NYSE: BRBR) is a portfolio that owns a collection of convenient nutrition brands like Premier Protein and Dymatize Nutrition, which was previously wholly-owned by Post Holdings. A fast-paced and busy lifestyle is pushing consumers to switch to quick and healthy meal options. This has resulted in above average categorical growth rates and increased household penetration of RTD protein shakes that promote active lifestyles. Additionally, powders are becoming more mainstream, and category proliferation has created an environment where more consumers are purchasing both every day and performance nutrition positioned protein products at grocery stores and mass retailers. Bellring Brands had a strong 2024 Q1 with net sales reaching $430.4 million, which was up 18.7% YoY. Premier Protein (~83% of BellRing Brands total revenue) grew 18.9% YoY, which came from large volume increases. Dymatize Nutrition was up 20.9% YoY also stemming from volume increases. Moreover, I provide three deep dives into the functional CPG portfolio's "hero SKU families" of Premier Protein RTD protein shakes and Premier Protein and Dymatize protein powders. As I’ve detailed in the past, Premier Protein has been partnering with the biggest and most reputable players in the industry to make large CAPEX investments…which has now given them a scalable, regionally diverse supply chain that will enable many years of robust growth. And you might be thinking, “what does that have to do with Premier Protein deploying a new product strategy?” Premier Protein has dabbled in a seasonal flavor strategy (on and off) for years, but it’s the recent Salted Caramel Popcorn launch that I believe signals that they’re advancing into a more dynamic LTO flavor strategy. This “drop culture” mentality is used A LOT within the performance nutrition powders (and energy drinks), but never in the protein beverage space. Why? Well…Premier Protein isn’t the only brand that has been dealing with manufacturing capacity constraints around aseptic low acid processing to produce RTD shakes over the last several years. That is an industrywide challenge…which means every other competitor doesn’t have enough capacity for its already top-selling products, so they will continue being gun shy on launching new innovations (flavors or ingredient decks) when the format would the same. That then makes Premier Protein having enough manufacturing capacity to not only meet its expected growth, but allow for innovation aggressiveness, a competitive advantage.

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How crazy is it to think that the “Church of Dr. Andrew Huberman” has grown to millions of regular worshippers in only a few short years? And this is at a time when attention spans are getting shorter, Americans’ trust in scientists is declining, and misinformation seems to be rampant...but maybe that’s actually a key part of this recipe for success. Admittedly, I’m not a Huberman Husband or have been indoctrinated into Hubermania (yet)…but it’s the broader cultural phenomenon, that’s powering the “Huberman Effect” which I’m acutely aware of (and been enormously fascinated by). Only a few decades ago, a Christian identity was so common among Americans that it could almost be taken for granted. As recently as the early 1990s, about 90% of U.S. adults identified as Christians. But today, about two-thirds of adults are Christians. The change in America’s religious composition is largely the result of large numbers of adults switching out of the religion in which they were raised to become religiously unaffiliated. But don’t confuse religiously unaffiliated with atheism…because Americans do not suddenly have a lack of belief. The first law of thermodynamics teaches us that energy cannot be created or destroyed, only altered in form. So, if that energy “cannot be destroyed” then where did it go? Christianity began getting replaced with secular institutions like sports, social tribes, and political parties…these communities (and many others) are all brands, and America is a strong believer in brands. But this content will explore how Dr. Andrew Huberman plays into this disruptive cultural phenomenon and why I think entrepreneurs are “missing the forest for the trees” when they think about not only Dr. Andrew Huberman but really any attention-getting personal brand.

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There are rules that need no introduction. They're not documented in books nor authorized by law, and still, they govern our daily lives. The problem with unwritten rules is they’re unwritten…and that leads to misunderstandings, especially in a constantly changing world! Take the supplement industry…there was this unwritten rule that children were generally off limits. That is unless that brand was owned by Big CPG. Then, the “Great Lockdown” happened in 2020! A LOT of converging forces produced a perfect storm of opportunity within the kid’s health supplement market. In the last almost three years, the supplement subcategory has grown by almost 50 percent…and that demand is not expected to slow. What’s next? I expect more kid supplements geared towards brain health and stress support…and don’t be surprised if you start seeing pre-teen health influencers!

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Footwear, apparel, and now nutrition…does the Tom Brady-infused NOBULL have what it takes to build a “complete wellness company”? To be fully honest, it’s been maybe four or five years since I’ve thought deeply about the TB12 brand. While the ideological foundation of the brand was (and still is) compelling, I became disinterested relatively quickly…as the level of execution required to bring that brand distinctiveness to life just wasn’t initially apparent. But my TB12 interest was reinvigorated this week…along with a bolstered belief that it could potentially have an intriguing future, after I read trending news headline. Tom Brady has struck a deal to merge his wellness company, TB12, and his apparel line, Brady Brand, with the sportswear brand NOBULL. The combined company will retain the NOBULL name…and Tom Brady becomes its second-largest shareholder after Mike Repole, who bought a majority stake in the company in July of 2023 through his investment firm, Impact Capital. So, what would an astute businessman like Mike Repole (i.e. turned Vitaminwater and BodyArmor into household beverage names) want with TB12 that was rumored to be generating less than 8-figures in revenue (CPG segment) and was losing tons of money on the bottom line. Firstly (and most obviously), Mike Repole is acquihiring Tom Brady. This isn’t Mike Repole’s first rodeo with this “sports marketing” strategy…as he iterated Gatorade’s playbook in the 2010s after noticing consumers spending more time on social media platforms and becoming more involved with “celebrity” parasocial relationships. So, that’s at least partly why BodyArmor decided to have athlete investors over the typical athlete spokespeople…thus allowing them to leverage their growing authentic microphones and public interest in an athlete’s life away from sports. But beyond the obvious interest in having one the greatest winners of all-time (Tom Brady) on his team, Mike Repole had the same “diamond in the rough” feeling that I got many years ago around the TB12 brand. And no, I’m not talking about the supplement product line…because those (great or not) are only the entry fee to compete in the market. With Tom Brady much more intentionally focused and engaged on business, the holistic wellness methodology of TB12 turns bolder and has more defensible distinctiveness. But then you also align it with the larger NOBULL strategic narrative…plus you can’t forget the added benefit of the CPG industry savviness from Mike Repole, and there’s a real possibility something extremely special could happen within this pursuit towards becoming a billion-dollar “complete wellness company.” From Nike to lululemon to even Alo (which is a brand I’ll discuss further on my channel very soon), these activewear brands aren’t just selling apparel…they’re selling a lifestyle. Reorienting around wellness and adding Tom Brady’s star power gives NOBULL a lot of strategic optionality throughout its ambitious build process…which is great and most likely directs them towards an IPO in the relatively near future.

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