Toronto and Vancouver home sales fell nearly 50% in the month of December. The comps are going to look awful from now until March. Is the Fed looking in the rearview mirror? Why the jobs data is lagging and why it's possible inflation can come down quicker than we might expect. Another recession signal just flashed red.

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Liquidity is scarce to end the year. Stocks are down, bond yields are rising once again. Delinquencies are set to rise. The boys discuss the outlook for 2023 and provide some forecasts on possible scenarios.

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Canada added over 800,000 people to the population, the largest increase going back to the 1970s. The economic machine that is immigrating people and selling them housing continues to churn. CPI inflation remains rather sticky, leaving the Bank of Canada with some difficult decisions in January. Stock market volatility remains elevated as recession risks remain firmly anchored.

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National home prices continue to slide lower, now down 16% since peaking in March. US headline inflation continues to move lower but the Fed ain't pivoting! More rate hikes from the US, Europe and England this week. Could passive investors see little to no returns for several decades?

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The Bank of Canada raised rates another 50bps, however they are now signaling a pause is in order. What are the implications for markets moving forward? More stress in the housing market, government spending sprees, and the probabilities of a financial crisis.

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Canadian GDP growth slows ahead of Bank of Canada rate hike next week. Is the Bank of Canada nearing the end of their rate hike cycle? Retail sales are flat over the past few years and housing is now falling. Jerome Powell readies the market for an easing, bond yields fall as growth slows.

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Bank of Canada says half of fixed payment variable rate mortgages have reached their trigger rates and this means that about 13% of all outstanding mortgages are interest only, paying no principal. Meanwhile, the BC Government introduces more housing changes. And China is back into lockdown threatening the outlook for oil demand.

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National house prices slid lower in October, bringing the total price decline to 15% since peaking earlier this year. Some lenders are starting to lay off staff as mortgage applications dry up. While inflation has peaked, recent data suggests it remains quite sticky at 6.9% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the lads discuss the ongoing fraud story of FTX.

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Romspen, one of Canada’s prominent private mortgage lenders with $3.2-billion in assets under management, is freezing investor redemptions, citing some trouble with loan repayments. Anecdotal evidence is piling up for a hard landing in Canada. Everywhere you look there is something blowing up, including FTX which was the worlds second largest crypto currency exchange. Inflation continues to turn lower with US CPI dropping more than expected in October.

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The Fed raised rates another 75bps and says there is still work to be done. Keith makes the case for a hard landing in the months ahead. Big tech stocks continue to get crushed. Meanwhile, the Canadian government has promised to ramp up immigration targets to 500,000 by 2025, with part of the objective to support the housing market. Affordable housing be damned!

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