Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the IMF reckons the way the Aussie home loan market is structured accentuates mortgage rate pain.

But first in the US, consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead remained steady at 3% for a third consecutive month in March, holding at three-year lows. For three years ahead they rose marginally to 2.9% whereas for five years ahead they slipped to 2.6%. None of these are 'bad' levels but they are not quite where the US Fed would like them to be.

The actual current March US CPI inflation level will be revealed on Thursday, NZT

Noticeable improvements recently in German industrial production, the US ISM PMI, and the Caixin factory PMI have combined to shift the expectations for the copper price sharply higher. It is now back to levels we last saw in May 2022, and first saw in November 2010. It is an upswing that has been unexpected.

But the same is not true for steel prices. Excess Chinese production and export dumping has driven the cost of rebar down to 2017 levels. Their stuttering domestic construction industry is having world-wide impacts in this important corner of the steel industry. Iron ore prices are now at yearly lows too.

In Hong Kong, a winding up order is being sought by its major lender for Shimao Group Holdings, just another Chinese property developer that has hit the debt wall. What is interesting about this is that the lender is China Construction Bank, one of China's four pillar banks and state-owned of course. Shimano has projects across much of China, but only one in Hong Kong. When Beijing turns against you, you are toast.

In Australia, February new lending data shows that the number of loans issued for the purchase or construction of a new home over the past year is holding at its lowest level in more than 20 years. Values are up of course, but the number isn't.

The IMF has released an analysis that shows Australian households are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than virtually any other consumers globally because of the combination of the dominance of variable-rate mortgages, high levels of household debt and lax lending rules. New Zealand is up there too, but not because of high variable-rate lending

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42% and up +2 bps from yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today a little higher by +US$6 from this time yesterday at US$2335/oz and yet another all-time high.

Oil prices have slipped -US$1 to just on US$85.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now down a bit less at just under US$90/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at just over 60.3 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are softer at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are fractionally firmer at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 69.3 and up slightly.

The bitcoin price starts today firmer at US$71,715 and up +2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.