The Playbook Podcast

Donald Trump has been complaining to members and guests at Mar-a-Lago that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis still hasn’t joined the other 2024 hopefuls in pronouncing that he won’t run for president if Trump runs.

And, the toughest trial Rep. Kevin McCarthy faces on his way to becoming House speaker isn’t reclaiming the majority. It’s what comes afterward.” That’s the blunt takeaway from Olivia Beavers’ big piece this morning drawing on interviews with more than 40 Republicans, which “point to two worrisome factions for McCarthy in a future vote for speaker: conservatives and wild cards.” 

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Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Earlier this year, the Biden administration forecast that the annual rate of inflation would be 2 percent. On Wednesday the Labor Department reported that inflation hit 6.2 percent, the biggest spike in prices since 1990, and the news is reverberating across every aspect of American politics. 

And, while the reconciliation bill, government funding and the debt limit will all play starring roles in the Senate between now and New Year’s Eve, don’t sleep on the drama over the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

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Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

We spend a lot of time in the weeds of congressional negotiations on the major legislation President Joe Biden, with some bipartisan help, is slowly moving through the system. At times it has all seemed pretty normal: 69 votes for an infrastructure package in the Senate that was hailed by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a less tidy but still pretty typical process of wrangling Democrats together for the much more partisan climate and social welfare reconciliation bill. Even Tuesday’s results in the off-year election in Virginia, which sent a message to the new president about overreach, were perfectly in line with recent history. 

But there were two stories Tuesday that reminded us of how, outside of the (relatively) routine sausage-making on Capitol Hill, some enormously worrisome undercurrents remain in American politics.

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Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

All eyes are on Sean Parnell when he testifies today for the second and final time in an ugly child custody battle with his estranged wife, Laurie Snell. Though Parnell unequivocally denied abusing his wife and children on the stand Monday, the Republican Senate candidate in Pennsylvania is starting to bleed high-level support, two sources familiar with the matter told Playbook. 

The Jan. 6 panel issued subpoenas Monday to a half-dozen Trump advisers, including campaign manager Bill Stepien, campaign senior adviser Jason Miller, national executive assistant to the campaign Angela McCallum and former national security adviser Michael Flynn.

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Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Congress is out this week and the Biden administration will spend much of the next few days promoting the benefits of BIF, making the case for the reconciliation bill and pushing parents and schools to get kids vaccinated.

So enjoy a brief window of calm in between last week’s Virginia and BIF news and the holiday insanity coming to Congress.

The must-read of the day to get prepared for what’s coming is this WSJ piece by Nick Timiraos, Natalie Andrews and Ian Talley on the obstacles looming for Biden.

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Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

The House adjourned just after 10 p.m. on Thursday night as Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team struggled to round up votes to pass the twin infrastructure and Build Back Better bills. Democratic leadership announced the House will be back in session at 8 a.m. and votes would happen today.

— One reason for Democrats to be optimistic today: “[M]any in the caucus are set to embark on overseas trips ahead of next week’s recess.” A deadline, in other words, could help push them to act.

— One reason for Democrats to be pessimistic: “But party leaders’ failure to corral the votes they need on Thursday — after several exhausting weeks spent hashing out many of the same issues — has left some Democrats privately wondering how they’ll pull it off on Friday.”

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Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Following an embarrassing election night for Democrats, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her caucus have redoubled their efforts to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIF) and Build Back Better package (BBB) through their chamber this week. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer announced Wednesday night that both bills could even see a floor vote as soon as today.

For now, the GOP sweep in Virginia and Dems’ razor-thin victory in New Jersey seem to have done what months of negotiations on the Hill could not: force moderates and progressives into line on passing both bills.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

 New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is still too close to call as you wake up this morning. With 88% of the expected vote in, incumbent Phil Murphy is trailing Republican Jack Ciattarelli by just over 1,000 votes. 

President Joe returned from Europe overnight to a Washington where politics has been completely upended since he left six days ago. 

Before he departed, Biden told House Democrats, “I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that the House and Senate majorities and my presidency will be determined by what happens in the next week.” He meant inaction on his two legislative priorities, leaving Europe with no congressional backing for his climate proposals, and potential defeats in one or more crucial elections Tuesday that would make everything worse. Biden may have been prescient.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Terry McAuliffe’s final message was almost entirely negative, focused on tying his opponent to Trump. Glenn Youngkin’s pitch was more complicated. He spent far more time advocating for job training programs, fixing the Virginia DMV, eliminating the state’s grocery tax and admiringly name-checking George W. Bush than he did talking about how he would ban critical race theory (a topic he’s leaned on plenty during the campaign to activate the MAGA base, despite the fact it’s not being taught in schools).

Still, Virginia is a blue state that Joe Biden won by 10 points, and the obvious intensity gap on display in the final days can be deceiving.

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Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.

Could prescription drug pricing reform make it into the reconciliation bill after all? Senate and House Democrats and the White House came close to reaching a deal on the issue Sunday, report Burgess Everett, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Heather Caygle. The plan in the works would allow some Medicare negotiations with pharmaceutical companies — but if it comes together, it would still be much narrower than many Democrats initially intended.

And, the race for governor in Virginia heads into the final stretch. The final polls: FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker has Youngkin surging into a slight lead, now up by an average of 0.6 points.

Raghu Manavalan is the host of POLITICO's Playbook.
Jenny Ament is the senior producer for POLITICO Audio. 
Irene Noguchi is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.