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Merry Christmas to our listeners!

AI's Role in Real Estate Investment...

"AI, and particularly generative AI, is a game-changer in real estate investment, even for the average Australian investor."

Mike and Dave explore some of the immediate scope that AI can offer, from generating realistic property images, to creating detailed market reports, and even forecasting future property value trends based on a range of complex factors.

Understanding Generative AI vs. Traditional Machine Learning....

Mike ponders the power of capturing a series of ‘photographic memories’, and details how AI has aided him with his quantity surveying data and identification of trends. Moving forward, can AI predict sentiment? It’s an interesting thought-experiment.

Dave contrasts the take-up of Chat GPT against other advancements such as the World Wide Web, Facebook, and the telephone.

How does AI already exist in the property world? The Trio ponder…

Mike shares some of the practical applications of generative AI for investors

“These AI tools are user-friendly and are designed with the layperson in mind. They can analyse your financial goals and suggest investment strategies, almost like having a personal investment advisor powered by AI."

But Dave reminds listeners that information found on the internet shouldn’t be blindly trusted. Cate talks about the risks to businesses when it comes to AI mistakes.

Can AI predict an outperformance property? Or is this a task that requires human touch? Tune in to find out what the Trio each think.

Cate shares the last paragraph of the episode, which was generated by AI: “AI, and specifically generative AI, is transforming how Australians invest in real estate. It's making sophisticated investment analysis more accessible to everyone."


....And our gold suggests!


Dave Johnston’s gold nugget - Dave ponders the limitations and contradictions associated with AI predicting the best property in the country.


Mike Mortlock’s gold nugget - Mike points out that many price models models and capital growth predictions are often wrong, and he wonders how AI will tackle irrational human behaviour.


Cate Bakos’s gold nugget - Cate challenges the usefulness of chat boxes and scripts when it comes to disingenuous scripting and important client communication.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/12/24/ai-the-future-of-property-investment/

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The November data is out! The headline figures prove that the 'middle sized cities' are still out-performing; Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane. And Melbourne disappointed with the first negative month in a while.

We have seen a new peak in house prices in Australia and for the combined capitals; we have seen a new record high for house prices. Cate and Mike marvel at the volatility, and in particular the disproportionate declines that our markets have experienced in recent years. And Dave pulls apart the weaknesses in median prices when it comes to data segmentation associated with houses versus units.

Have the Victorian regions bounced back? Maybe. But how does wage price index correlate? "If you want a job, work from home. if you want a career, come back to the office." Do you agree with this quote? And how has WFH impacted Australian property?

Cate delves into investor-led sales and how the segmented data is captured. And she asks when policy makers will recognise the rate of investor sales.

The Trio focus on rental increases and vacancy rates; despite the rate of growth relaxing, rental growth is still broadly in positive territory for most cities. And when we consider our new arrivals, and policy around skills, it's questionable that our services-inflation woes are being accurately addressed.

Mike asks Cate about new listings, and she points out a few points of interest in relation to the relationship between new listings and buyer demand. Cate talks about the impact of the most recent cash rate increase and the typical hallmarks of December market conditions.

Mike steers us through the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index. There have been a few subtle changes, and the Trio attempt to understand the broad attitudes towards timing the market and economic outlook.

Personal, unsecured loans have tricked up and Cate is troubled. Tune in to hear more...

And Dave covers loan approvals, mortgages and decreasing refinancing numbers. Dave reports that this is the lowest read since May 2022.

Lastly, Cate and Dave touch on Sydney vs Melbourne price disparity and some of the reasons why Sydneysiders are taking advantage of the Melbourne market.

And... time for our gold nuggets...

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: For all of those budding purchasers who are focusing on 2024 as their year... take advantage of the buying conditions in the early part of the year. Agents are talking about increased listing volumes and the supply/demand ratio may favour buyers.

Dave Johnston's gold nugget: Dave emphasis the attractive conditions that buyers could face in Melbourne, Sydney and Darwin in the early months of 2024.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/12/18/ep-236-november-market-update/

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A lovely listener, Zak has written in to the the Trio. He and his partner have worked hard as young professionals and have acquired two properties; each with high 80's LVRs. One is a boutique apartment in Melbourne's leafy inner south/east, and the other is a character brick house in beautiful pocket of Ballarat. But despite their strong incomes and dedication to their financial goals, their borrowing capacity has precluded them from further investing for now. The question he has is, "how is it that some individuals (often in their early to mid thirties) are able to amass large portfolios of (say) 10+ properties?"

Can it really be done, or is it a mirage?

The Trio enjoy unpacking this one. Dave starts with some possible explanations for how these young multi-property portfolio investors manage it, and he also shares some interesting data direct from the ATO about the percentage of multi-property investors. Scarce indeed!

"Let's talk about the psyche of someone who wants ten-plus properties". Cate sheds light on what drove her to pursue a quick succession of investment property purchases when she was younger. Mike leads the conversation around ego-metrics too.

The Trio challenge some of the mirages out there that investors claim as 'investments', and Cate talks about the headache factor of a large portfolio, particularly when she considers upkeep on interstate holdings.

Mike challenges Dave to share some of the alternative financing sources that our listener duo could consider to break past their borrowing capacity constraint. Dave delves into cashflow and buffers, and he talks about risk and where it is relevant when it comes to multi-property investors.

Dave and Cate agree on one key ingredient that can certainly optimise an investor's chances of attaining a multi-property portfolio... and it's time.

Lastly, our gold nuggets……

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Forget the white noise! Just stick to the simple stuff. There's no tricks. Set a plan based on what you want your retirement to look like.

Dave Johnston's gold nugget: Work out how much passive income you need for retirement (in rent), work out the total property value you are aiming to purchase, and consider the number of properties that this represents. Shut out the superfluous noise and don't worry about what others are investing in.

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Time is your best ingredient, so don't sit around waiting to jump into property. When you can, you should.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/12/11/unravelling-the-mystery-of-how-investors-amass-ten-plus-properties/

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What does it take to become a great strategic mortgage broker?

"You need to listen with intent", says Dave. There is so much more to effective mortgage broking than just having a good grasp of numbers and a sharp recall of loan products.

The most successful professional advisors ask seven times more questions than the average advisor.

Cate weighs in with a comment about how a good advisor can deliver an answer. She also talks about the privilege of being a trusted advisor. And Cate doesn't worry about scripts and dialogue. It's all about listening and asking the right questions.

The ability to notice body language and the EQ required in a role like this is intriguing. Tune in to hear more!

Why is mortgage strategy so much more important than rate? Dave runs our listeners through all of the important considerations in the mortgage strategy.

What are some of the technical skills required to be a SMB (strategic mortgage broker)?

Mike challenges Dave about the Royal Commission and the change in legislation for Responsible Lending. Dave sets the record straight! And he shares some good stats too. Cate and Dave discuss the broker commissions and the practical reasons why SMB's maintain good, ongoing relationships with their clients.

Dave and Mike discuss the processes required to mitigate the consumer's risk when it comes to deposits and settlements. Deadlines and clauses govern a lot of tasks, and attention to detail is critical. Dave shares some of the worst case scenarios.

Lastly, our gold nuggets……

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike recalls witnessing mortgage brokers and accountants arguing about add-backs and servicing calculations. This early awakening showed Mike the value of a good quality mortgage broker.

Dave Johnston's gold nugget: Dave reminds listeners that he has hardly mentioned interest rates in this episode. Strategic mortgage broking goes so much beyond rate.

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: "If you win them on rate, you'll lose them on rate". Cate relays an important message about the importance of looking beyond offering the cheapest rate.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/12/04/unveiling-the-secrets-of-elite-strategic-mortgage-brokers/

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Cate talks candidly about buyer's agency and how she found her way into this space. Is a university degree essential? Important? And what other past experiences help a BA on their journey? Tune in to find out.

Mike also speaks about some of the impressive BA's he's met and interviewed, and he considers the importance of analytical skills, soft-skills and diverse backgrounds.

The Trio ponder the challenges of adapting to BA-life. From long/late hours to liability, deadlines to negotiation pressure, the role is nothing short of dull. As Mike says, "It's nowhere near as glamorous as it seems."

What extra skills can give BA's an edge? Great question, Dave. The Trio move on to buyer's agency training.

"It's not the piece of paper you want, it's the knowledge." Cate shares her thoughts on some of the pathways that BA's can learn. She also talks about specific past roles that will be complementary for aspiring BA's.

The Trio tackle the training backgrounds and previous jobs that can be problematic for new BA's. Can leopards change their spots? It's an interesting debate.

Cate shares a short experience she had when she was in 'gardening leave' in a government organisation and she draws upon the disparity between that role and the world she works in.

And Mike reminds Cate that she was a rubbish dining companion when her clients called during a work dinner.

Dave dares to ask Cate about some of the short courses available that concern her. Tune in to hear more!

Lastly, our gold nuggets……

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike splits his answer into two. For aspiring BA's, they really need to take the training seriously. He cautions people to do a lot of research. And for consumers who are looking to select a buyer's agent; put a great checklist together and be prepared to quiz them hard.

Dave Johnston's gold nugget: Dave feels consumers should ask for a BA with at least two years' experience in a BA firm.

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: #askforexperience

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/11/27/becoming-a-buyers-advocate/

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Mike has prepared some industry-first data and the Trio deep-dive into it for our listeners this week.

Dave's overview of this special city spans it's impressive performance of late, and the uniqueness of Perth when it comes to the house to unit ratio. Mike also weighs in with some interesting history about WA's quest for independence.

66% of Western Australians voted to leave the commonwealth in a 1931 referendum, but for technical reasons, the vote didn't initiate change.

The mineral wealth stands WA disproportionately from other states in terms of federal funds allocated per state and territory, and Dave delves into the state budget and the revenue generated by WA. With WA accounting for half of the nation's exports, this important statistic is very telling when it comes to understanding what drivers influence markets.

Mike's data compared Q1 2022 to Q1 2023 and found that WA had moved from the 4th most popular state for investors to 2nd in that 12 months. In real terms, it was a 22.49% change in favour of WA with every state except the ACT declining in favour over that period. WA represented 9.38% of all residential investor activity in Q1 2022, and jumped to a whopping 22.49% in Q1 2023 second only to QLD at 37.97%. Despite this recent renaissance, Cate reminds listeners that for the 14-year period starting 2007 to the end of 2020, the Perth property market essentially stayed flat. At the start of 2007 Perth had the highest median house value of Australia’s eight capitals, and at the end of the next 168 months, it went nowhere, while house values actually doubled in Sydney.

Mike's insights into population changes are fascinating.. tune in to find out!

Reading the iron ore crystal ball is no mean feat, but Dave shares his outlook. The Trio share their concerns for investors who are rushing in without understanding the volatility and drivers of a market like Perth. Timing the entry and exit is never an easy thing to do. As Dave points out, an over-reliance on mining is a risk.

Lastly, our gold nuggets……

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: It's important to be heavily researched on the location as best you can. Thinking about resale and retirement should be a key consideration also.

Dave Johnston's gold nugget: "The most important economy to be across is your own economy. Ultimately you need to make decisions that are right for you."

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: The tyranny of distance needs to be factored in to any investor's interstate purchase decisions. Long term buy and hold plans need to be consider the maintenance burden that long distance renovating can create.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/11/20/perth-property-gold-rush/

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The October data has Perth leading the chart, but as Dave reports, the mid-sized capitals are the capitals that are showing us the strongest results. There is a correlation between growth and listing rates though.

Listings have jumped in Spring for Sydney and Melbourne, supporting Dave's correlation theory. Cate identifies data integrity issues, citing Hobart's data as an example. All it would take is a disproportionate number of listings at either end of the market to skew a data set in a city as tight as Hobart.

The Trio ponder foreign buyer disincentives and taxes, in particular the impact on Australia with other countries applying new taxes and restrictions. Dave notes the rate of immigration Australia is currently experiencing and notes that it's at an all-time high, hence putting additional pressure on housing. Yet, as Cate says, we need more people in this high inflationary environment to assist with providing services. Such a difficult balance!

Are the mid-cities thriving because they are more affordable right now? And what impact is the return to the city by the tree-changers and sea-changers having on the data? Cate explains... Cate shares some insights into investor-led sales, and she also talks about which buyers are soaking up these investor sales. Check out our Resources below for more. No real respite in store for renters in most cities, unfortunately. The Trio note that the vacancy rates are as low as they've seen in their time.

At this stage, there is no real stimulus on the horizon that is likely to change this issue for renters. Dave cites some scary stats. But as Cate points out, household formation rates may return to former levels as house-sharers re-band, young adults move back 'home', and singles re-partner.

Listing activity is up nationally, but the Trio discuss the drivers for this, the differential compared to past years, and the overall resilience of the market.

Mike wonders whether the number of Perth sales could be initiated by vendors who have been practising Loss Aversion. Are they happy to sell, now that values have finally returned? And the opposite of Loss Aversion is a Distressed Sale Cate and Dave point out the fact that the states that the media report are 'in crisis' are not showing large numbers of distressed sales, relative to total listings.

In Mike's words, "Media beat-up?" Maybe.

Total housing lending fell 7.8%, but it's still 1.5% higher than a year ago. The 'mortgage wars' we saw in past months are not quite as rampant as they were. Dave proposes we'll see some competition in refinances.

Will APRA bring down the buffer? Tune in to hear Dave's thoughts....

And... time for our gold nuggets... Cate Bakos's gold nugget: New listing activity for the remainder of the year..... most markets slow down for Christmas break. So, for anyone who is thinking that 2023 has a few exciting listings to come out; we only have a couple of week's new listings remaining.

Dave Johnston's gold nugget: It's a good buying time in Melbourne and Sydney with rising stock levels. Dave feels that this 'purple patch' opportunity for buyers will continue.

Show Notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/11/13/ep-231-october-market-update/

Got a question for the trio? https://forms.com//form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

A great listener question prompts today's show. Sam writes;

"We brought our 4 bed 2 bath mid century family in Greensborough area in mid 2021 for 1 mil approx. Since then the price has fallen then risen, and generic real estate apps pricing it at around the same value. The house is older style, has good bones but over time we would love to undertake a moderate renovation. The property is in a good family friendly/school zone, and with the right modifications there is immediate reasons to move from this property. We are getting close to 80%LVR, which I understand is a threshold for accessing finance. The original plan was to build our plan out with two more 600k investment properties."

From accessing equity to balancing investing versus renovating, Sam has a handful of great questions for The Trio.

Dave unpacks the question about unleashing equity.

"Cash-Out" loans are something they could consider, and as Dave explains, equity access isn't limited to those borrowers who need to stretch to 90% loan to value levels.

The question of mortgage insurance is an interesting one, and both Cate and Dave share some interesting insights, along with some exciting new loan products to suit today's market.

The mechanics of accessing equity can vary. Dave explains how investors can sensibly approach this task, from examples, process steps, and timeframe expectations. The important point Dave makes relates to renovations, though. And how many listeners have heard of "as-if complete" valuations? Dave and Mike share some special tips.

Investment versus lifestyle conundrum is something that strikes often, and Dave works through some of the questions that investors need to think through. Cate debates where she would invest the money.

Cash-outs versus progressive drawdowns... Dave walks our listeners through some of the options. And is there a magic number for LVR's and equity access? Tune in to find out.

Lastly, our gold nuggets……

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Identifying the strategy is essential. "Ruthlessly efficient decisions!" And Mike shares "SIC Building syndrome".... something to google!

Dave Johnston's gold nugget: Some situations warrant a good property plan, and Sam's questions could constitute this. Informed and educated decisions are the best decisions.

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: CMA's are just automated valuation tools that can sometimes get things horribly wrong. Algorithms can't always recognise important factors. Getting a proper appraisal with some science backing the data up is a great approach when working out what a property is genuinely worth.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/11/06/listener-question-renovate-or-invest/

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Cate kicks off the episode with some quirky title types that can be sometimes found for apartments. Particularly when considering an Art Deco era apartment, buyers need to brace themselves for Company Share and Stratum titles. They are generally cheaper products, but they come with danger for some borrowers. Cate explains the differences between these types and she expands on why buyers need to exercise caution when deposit funds on hand are less than 40%.

Can Stratum and Company Share be converted to Strata? Yes, indeed they can, but it's not always straight forward and it's often more than the mere cost of the legal fees and the subdivision.

Dave discusses the options that buyers have when it comes to lending policy restrictions for apartments. Small apartments can wreak havoc for some borrowers, as can apartments with commercial zoning. Dave ponders whether zoning will be altered for office spaces that are being converted to residential products.

Mike's high rise apartment case study is alarming; and it goes to show how rules can be changed within a development. Owning an apartment in a complex is nothing short of complex!

Cate talks about the elephant in the room; strata fees for off the plan apartments. It's a must-listen!

Dave opens Pandora's Box when he asks Cate about the risks of high rise, high density properties. From cladding issues to to Air BnB issues, car stackers, special levies and location woes, Cate drags out her laundry list.

Cate details what it is she loves about boutique blocks. The list is broad, but downsides do exist. Tune in to find out!

And... what do you do if pets aren't allowed in an apartment block?

Lastly, our gold nuggets……

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Too many investors think that low strata fees are attractive, but they need to think about their sinking fund schedule and the long term cost of ignoring important things.

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate also chats about low strata fees. It's a bit of a Goldilocks conundrum. Too low, or too high... there is a sweet spot when it comes to strata fees.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/10/30/all-things-apartments-part-2/

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The Trio kick off this exciting ep by defining where apartments sit in the unit subset, and Dave shares with the listeners his favoured types of apartments. Some of Dave's criterion paves the way for a high-scoring gem... he shares some valuable must-haves and nice-to-haves. Highly sought-after, great allure, attractive land to asset ratio and unbeatable locations!

Dave shares some startling facts about the recent historical capital growth performance of apartments versus houses. Core Logic did a study in August 2022 for the last thirty years across the two data sets. While the data showed that combined capitals exhibited 450% growth for houses, while units only clocked 307%, and for regions the house data set tracked 314%, and units, 213%.

Cate discusses some of the reasons for this relative underperformance and she also chats about the mistakes that some have made in the past when they were aligned to one geographic base and ignored other gentrifying options with strong growth drivers. As Mike says, "Blue chip or bust? It doesn't make sense. Their model doesn't have flexibility."

Will the older style apartments bounce back? Only time will tell, but Cate discusses the 'apartment renaissance' that she's noticed of late, particularly with an aging population.

Mike cracks into the 1,000 Assets Study, specifically a trip down memory lane since 2016. Initially 47% of their investor study were purchasing units. Into 2018/2019, it dropped to 40%, and following this, a huge drop-off surprised Mike, with a recent figure of 18% recorded. Mike puts this down to a few factors, including the pandemic, horrific building defects and cladding issues, and the evolution of investor education. This, coupled with the increasing number of units per building has translated into heightened apartment avoidance for many investors.

Unit complexes are getting bigger and the average count of apartments per building has risen from 61 to 110 over this period. Buyers do tend to red flag huge developments, particularly of late.

"Your job is to help them grow wealth, not to save them tax" is one of Cate's sayings when it comes to accountants recommending new properties.

Cate shares some of the common reasons why buyers have been more fearful about some apartment subsets in recent years. From off the plan risks to lender appetites, there are a few alarm bells that listeners should pay attention to.

But the Trio talk about some of the positive changes they've seen across developments and designs of late. Cate talks about the elephant in the room; strata fees and expensive special levies. It's a must-listen!

And Mike treats our listeners to a chapter on the Rental Loss Index and their subsequent study. From oversupply to high vacancy rates, this insight is particularly powerful for investor insight.

And our gold nuggets……

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate takes a leaf out of the Property Professor's handbook. She urges investors not to purchase off the plan, high-rise apartments.

Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Mike reminds listeners that not all units are bad! They can also have a decent Land to Asset Ratio.

Show Notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2023/10/23/all-things-apartments-part-2/