The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

In this episode, Cate and Dave dive into a topic that’s top of mind for many aspiring homeowners and investors—how to increase borrowing capacity. Whether you’re buying your first property, refinancing, or growing a portfolio, understanding what affects your borrowing power can help you make smarter decisions. Being aware of how banks consider the various elements of each applicant's scenario will enable you to plan your future decisions alongside your strategic mortgage broker with more clarity.

  In today's show, the Duo will cover:

• How Lenders Assess Borrowing Capacity: Dave explains that borrowing capacity isn’t just about your income—it’s about how you structure your finances, manage debts, and work with a strategic mortgage broker. Income is assessed post-tax, with potential reductions (shading) applied to bonuses, rental income, and commissions. Even with online calculators, complexity with income means real results can differ widely.
• Impact of Existing Debts: Lenders assess credit cards, personal loans, car leases, HECS, and child support (to name a few). Importantly, they apply a buffer rate of +3% on current and proposed loans to ensure you can cope with future rate rises.
• Lender Policy: Every lender has different rules. Some are more generous with specific incomes or professions. Dave stresses that understanding lender policy requires an intimate understanding of the various lender's offerings and requirements—it’s complex and ever-changing. A good, strategic mortgage broker can tailor strategies across more than forty lenders to improve outcomes and enable their clients to reach their purchasing and money goal effectively. "The key is knowing where the levers are", says Dave.
• Living Expenses: A major focus that Dave shares with us is the deep scrutiny on personal spending, especially since the Banking Royal Commission. Lenders no longer rely solely on HEM (Household Expenditure Measure); instead, they require detailed breakdowns across 15 expense categories—from groceries and utilities to insurance, childcare, and entertainment. Cate and Dave delve into these segments in detail in this show.
• Practical Ways to Improve Capacity: Trimming even $500–$1,000 in monthly expenses can significantly boost how much you can borrow. Dave shares insights into how lenders assess discretionary vs non-discretionary expenses and what can realistically be cut if needed—highlighted by the now-famous "Wagyu and Shiraz" court ruling.
• HEM Benchmarks: While no longer dominant, HEM (Household Expenditure Measure) still plays an important role. If your declared expenses are much higher, borrowing power can be significantly impacted. If they’re lower but justified, some lenders may accept your declared living expenses. Being familiar with the information that lenders scrutinise helps borrowers understand what influences lender's decisions around borrowing capacity.

Understanding borrowing capacity is more than numbers—it’s strategy. Stay tuned for future episodes covering additional tactics to boost borrowing power and make the most of your financial potential.

  .... and our gold nuggets!

Dave Johnston's gold nugget: having a conversation with your strategic mortgage broker about your goals, timing and opportunities to improve your circumstances and to make your goals achievable. "One element you can control is reducing your living expenses."

Cate Bakos's gold nugget: "I would implore anyone to identify a good mortgage broker and see what they can produce for you." From understanding loan options to getting a tailored solution applicable to your scenario - most people don't understand how complex their scenario could be to lenders. 

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/04/07/increasing-borrowing-capacity-1/

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Dave hosts this episode with Sarah's great listener question.

Sarah writes in;  "Melbourne will need to turn around at some point after underperforming. With this, there’s been an increase (or at least it seems like it) in marketing/spruiking around purchasing off-the-plan luxury apartments targeting down-sizer owner occupiers. I know someone who has bought into the Jam Factory complex with an SMSF after being lured in by the prospect of huge gains over the next decade. The same is happening in Brisbane where people are being told there’s still plenty of growth ahead of the Olympics. Should buyers be wary or will the eventual turnaround see apartments outperform? OTP or established? Or would you stick to houses instead?  How to identify a spruiker over a genuine buyer’s agent, and how we identify the start of FOMO."

Lastly, Sarah asks, "When is outer suburban a better investment than inner city or fringe?" 

Cate shares a sad experience that her uber driver talked to her about on a long drive. He had been encouraged to purchase an SMSF investment property by a mortgage broker who recommended a commercially-zoned, off-the-plan apartment. There were many red flags for this investor who received some very poor advice.  Dave reminds our listeners that in this scenario, the buyer was not receiving any independent advice, and this is crucial.

When will Melbourne turn a corner? Melbourne is showing early signs of a market turnaround, but we encourage her to revert to our Melbourne episode we recorded recently on whether mean reversion was a reliable theory for investors to rely upon. 

Cate agrees with Sarah's concerns that there has been an increase in marketing and spruiking in many of our markets. She offers some reasons for this, touching on some lucrative developer incentives and hard conditions for high density developments.  Sarah's example of South Yarra's Jam Factory complex is a case in point. Cate and Dave delve into the reasons why this investor's purchase was less successful than planned. Scarcity counts for so much, and Dave implores investors to conduct thorough pricing research before they sign on the dotted line. Mike discusses the sub-optimal precedent set on valuations as other investors in the same block sell, and he also discusses the risks associated with struggling rents in a high density building.

Limited visibility into recent historical prices is a key threat to accurate pricing analysis for off-the-plan purchasers. Understanding this invisible section of the property market is essential for those who are circling off-the-plan. 

Will apartments turn around? "There are apartments and there are apartments", says Cate. She explores some of the apartment types she favours and lists some of the important apartment criterion she adheres to. From outdoor space to orientation, there are many points to tick off the list, however a very important task relates to following up the strata manager. 

How can buyers identify a spruiker? Mike has some clever tips and questions for the investor to ask their advisor. A red flag also appears when the advisor is reluctant to work with any of the other professionals in the investor's circle. If the advisor is insisting on using only their professional contacts, this could be a red flag. 

How do you identify the start of FOMO? The Trio share some of the leading indicators to look out for. But is it artificial heat? How can a buyer get in before the herd? Tune in to find out... 

And lastly, Sarah asks, "When is outer-suburban a better investment than inner-city or fringe?" This is a big question, and it comes down to so many factors. An experienced property planner and/or an experienced buyers agent can walk an investor through this important decision. 

Thank you to Sarah for providing us with such a diverse range of great questions for this episode! 

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/30/spruikers-and-off-the-plan-risk/

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In this episode of the Property Trio, Dave, Cate and Mike delve into the concept of mean reversion in property investment, particularly focusing on the Melbourne market. If a market experiences a prolonged flat or declining period, should it eventually revert to its historical trajectory?  Dave explains the theory of mean reversion, and its implications for property prices.

"One month of data does not indicate a trend" as Dave correctly states. 

The Trio look at some examples where mean reversion has actually played out in property markets.  Dave circles in on Sydney's property market pre and post 2000 as a textbook example of a city that exhibited mean reversion. Despite a challenging (and long) period of stagnation, Sydney did bounce back and 'resumed' it's historical trajectory.

Mike cites the Perth market, and specifically, the cooling of this city's capital growth sprint following the mining industry boom. Did Perth demonstrate that the mean reversion theory didn't work? And as Mike ponders, how long does it take for mean reversion to kick in?   

Show notes: 

Mike shares some of his data on specific suburbs in Melbourne that exhibit significant growth gaps and the Trio consider the reliability of this analysis for selecting performing markets. Mike highlighted the local government areas that have demonstrated significant growth gaps, but how much can investors rely on data alone? Cate applies her local knowledge and offers some explanations for some of Mike's data findings. And Dave considers the growth gap and the dollar value shortfall for each of the picks in Mike's list.   

"Data is a tool. It has strengths and limitations." 

Why haven't some of the bluechip suburbs reverted to the mean? The conversation highlights both successful and cautionary examples of mean reversion, providing insights for investors on potential opportunities and risks in the current market.

The Trio discuss the implications of market predictions, the significance of blue chip locations, and the impact of government policies on property prices. The conversation also highlights the importance of understanding economic indicators and the need for investors to be selective in their strategies.  The Trio emphasise that while mean reversion is a powerful concept, it is not guaranteed, and investors should seek local expertise to navigate the complexities of the market.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/24/mean-reversion/

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This week, Dave and Cate enjoy sharing the Monthly Market Update while Mike is cycling through Thailand for a very special charity ride. The duo unpack the February indices.... and they circle Melbourne and canvas the coalface, the metrics and some of the growth drivers. One month isn't a trend, but Cate and Dave have certainly experienced an uptick in activity and buyer sentiment since the auction season started in 2025.

February can be a fully month, and Cate explains how some of this pent-up energy after a long Christmas break can often show peaks in this short month. The regions continue to hold firm and Dave and Cate chat about market segmentation. Trends emerge when markets transition, and the duo consider some of the key differences between 2024 and 2025.

Rental rates continue to broadly moderate. "We've had a perfect correlation between our rental growth and the amount of air time that politicians get to discuss the rental crisis." Darwin has continued to surprise though and the duo consider the highs of 2021's rental movement in Darwin and the cause of this incredible spike.

Dave reminds us of the stagnant nature of rental growth in the ten years prior to COVID however, and cites Pete Koulizos's claim that rents have merely been playing catch up.  Household formation rates have increased of late though, and in tandem with the normalisation of overseas migration, it's little wonder that the rental growth rate has slowed.

We've seen a slight increase in our vacancy rates across the board with the exception of Darwin and Hobart. Sample size and seasonality are two reasons for the variable vacancy rates for these two smaller cities.

Total property listings tell us a lot about the overall state of the markets. Sydney's growth is substantial, and in spite of the additional stock levels. However, Perth's stock count is down, signalling a significant switch in the supply/demand ratio.

What's happening with Canberra? ...and what explains the change? Tune in to find out! 

And the duo consider the tough contraction of old listings in the three highest performing markets of 2024 and they consider the correlation. 

What does the distressed listing data tell us about Victoria in particular? Keeping a perspective on these numbers is vital though; and as gross numbers, the distressed listing count is not as alarming as some may fear.

The Westpac consumer sentiment data shows a subtle change following the interest rate cut, but it's "Time to buy a major household item" that registers the largest movement over the past month. Time to buy a dwelling is a great discussion point when looking at longer range changes, however.  Dave references a segmented consumer sentiment though though, and it shows Victoria surging and WA pairing back substantially. The house price expectations index is still quite high at 145, signalling that people anticipate prices to keep rising. And the interest rate expectations index suggests that consumers are even more optimistic about cash rate movements.

New loan commitments aren't showing enormous changes over the past quarter, but Christmas timing may have a bit to do with this.

Cate circles in on personal lending, including vehicles and they consider the impact of financial hardship and the need for some households to turn to unsecured credit. 

And wage price index figures give us some interesting insights to discuss. A breakdown in the key industries leading the pack show up some of the recent shifts. The seasonally adjusted wage price index rose 0.7% in this quarter; a figure that is much inline with the RBA's target band for inflation 

Lastly, some positive news in the GDP figures give Dave and Cate a degree of optimism about our RBA's fight on inflation and our domestic economy. All of this is a welcome reprieve when talk of recession has been drifting above us like a dark cloud.  We hope our listeners have enjoyed the show and we're cheering Mike on from the sidelines!

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/17/ep-301-feb-2025-market-update/

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Dave hosts our 300th show today, and it's a particularly special episode because we commemorate Mike's 100th episode in the Trio. What's changed in the data, the economy and the Australian property market since we started recording together?

They recall the impact of COVID on the studio and the recording setup too.  The first statistic that Dave shares is quite startling. Australian residential real estate has grown from $6.95 trillion dollars to over $11 trillion dollars.

Mike recalls some of the events over the last six years, from recession to home builder initiatives, to COVID and the frightening property forecasts that were thrown around.... and not to mention the toilet paper supply chain debacle.

Capital city versus regional city performance is noteworthy. Cate reflects on the pattern that emerged over the recent national market downturns. Post-COVID is an interesting period because the regions have continued to outperform. 

Rental growth over the last five years has outstripped recent historical levels. The Trio step through some of the contributing economic, legislative and social factors that contributed to this. They also consider the impact on rental yields across the nation. 

Mike recalls the 33% increase in the material price inputs, global supply chain woes and he cites the Freightos Baltic index peaks during the latter stages of COVID. The construction industry remains the highest for insolvencies in the country though, and Mike considers the impact on the government's housing accord targets. And Mike shares some interesting data on domestic renovations. 

Cate considers the impact of the trade shortage on the market conditions for the various market segments, and she notes the two speed market for renovated vs unrenovated products. 

The Trio chat about the cash rate moves over this period and some of the unprecedented changes that resulted and Dave sheds light on some of the fixed rate trends he's observed, including an insight into buyer behaviours. 

Referencing the new lending for investment purposes chart; "This chart is a perfect reflection of credit policy!", Cate says.  Dave walks our listeners through some of the historical interventions into credit supply, and how this has impacted our markets over the years.

Thank you to our listeners. We've loved recording these last 300 episodes for you! 

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/10/300th-episode/

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Cate hosts today's show and she opens the conversation Kim's listener question as follows.

"I would love to hear more about what to do with property portfolios for those nearing retirement. Do we transfer to our kids, sell some off or live on the rent and sell off when we are really old?" But as Dave points out, this is quite a big question, and not one that can be answered in under a minute. The critical question to ponder is whether the plan aligns with an investor's retirement goals. Determining when an investor has acquired enough property to cease the acquisition phase is something that can only be done well when the plan is clear, and takes into account all steps from accumulation through to retirement. From timing to risk profile, tax implications and projected rental incomes and values, and knowing who to turn to for advice, there is much to cover in answering this question. And that's not to mention the family home!

What are the various options for investors holding property once they reach retirement? Mike walks our listeners through seven different approaches, and there are no right or wrong options.

The Trio talk about the pros and cons of handing property down to our children. Cate touches on bequests and philanthropic opportunities, including a wonderful story about a home in Melbourne's inner north that was donated to a local charity.

Selling some vs holding all.... Dave talks through the complexity of each option, and the benefits of holding for as long as possible. "Just because you've hit retirement, it doesn't mean you need to sell." Maintenance, trades and the challenges of holding properties into retirement are serious considerations though. The Trio discuss the ways that investors can approach divesting once the decision to sell has been made.

When is property investing not a good idea? Cate talks about the mistake that some investors make when they leave investing too late in life. Once a property acquisition gets between an investor and their retirement plans, the aspiration can become a nightmare.

And lastly, Dave steps our listeners through the task of gathering our professionals in our corner. From selecting the right people, to discussing their retirement plans and lifestyle dreams with our advisors, it is abundantly clear that having a clear and documented plan is essential.

.... and our gold nuggets!

Cate's gold nugget: Rather than helping their kids, (who may not need help), how could investors help their grandchildren?

Dave's gold nugget: Dave recommends investors sit down with an expert and properly model out their plan. Working through planning with a financial planner, including retirement and beyond (including estate planning) is important. The nuances associated with transition into retirement are enormous and they deserve professional advice.

Mike's gold nugget: There are so many combinations and possibilities for investors to consider, but Mike recommends some strategic modelling for investors to optimise their opportunities.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/03/03/approachig-retirement-listener-question/

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Cate hosts today's show and she opens the conversation with the most recent interest rate cut. What could it mean for the property market? And will we see consecutive cuts in the short-term?

Dave shares his perspective on Melbourne's anaemic property performance and he contrasts this miserable growth against some of the other capital cities. Looking at 10 years of data shows the following: 

• Melbourne, in contrast to other cities, experienced most of its growth pre-2020, with very little price appreciation in recent years. 
• Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide have seen the vast majority of their price appreciation occur from 2020 onwards.  
• Adelaide and Brisbane have been the major out-performers over the past decade. 
• Sydney saw strong growth pre-2020 and has since experienced more moderate gains since. 

Key indicators for Melbourne being at a turning point are interesting, and Mike chats about rental yields, and relative affordability, but what do the Trio think about the adoption of the mean reversion theory?

Cate shares her thoughts about Melbourne's strengthening yield and in particular, the reason for the decay of rental stock over recent years.  There is no doubt about it, rental yields play an important role in investor decision-making.

Home Buyer sentiment is another important key indicator, and this has jumped recently in Victoria. This has been in stark contrast to Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide where it has fallen significantly. 

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Survey “time to buy a dwelling” index nationally reached 89.9 in January, its highest level in nearly three years. Sentiment counts for a lot, but as Mike points out, "Sentiment is a tricky thing". Can large waves of buyer's agents skew a market? Can an artificial environment drive price movement when a disproportionate number of buyers agents all compete? Cate talks about the scenarios where this may be the case, but she feels that owner-occupiers are more likely to move markets. Fear of missing out is a genuine concern for many prospective upgraders and first homebuyers.

How have Melbourne’s median property values changed over the past few years, and what does this tell us about where the market is headed? Dave leads our listeners through some great contrasts between capital cities. Intrastate migration has played a role too. 

Mike touches on dwelling value to income ratios and the Trio consider the pull of affordability and job opportunity in other cities, both regional and capital.

Is now a good time for investors and homebuyers to consider Melbourne? Tune in to find out! 

.... and our gold nuggets! 

Mike's gold nugget: In a sea of positive data points, the sentiment remains the interesting one to follow. Mike feels this will become a more robust indicator of price growth. 

Dave's gold nugget: Dave maintains that 2026 is going to be the year for Melbourne! But he reminds listeners that they should make the right decisions based on what is right for their own personal economy. 

Cate's gold nugget: League ladders change all the time. There is no fixed order for performance of cities and history has shown us how this has alternated over the years. 

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/24/is-melbourne-about-to-turn/

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This week, Mike hosts the monthly market update and kicks off with a segment about Darwin. But, as Cate states, data points don't make a trend line. Darwin's recent performance may be noteworthy, but historical data suggests that Darwin's median property price is still less than what it was a decade ago. 

And while talking data, Mike promises our listeners some exciting data on mean reversion, (specifically in relation to Melbourne).... stay tuned! 

The Trio unpack the January indices.... is Perth's growth slowing? Melbourne and Sydney's negative median price movement is evident in the data, but does this correlate to what is happening at the coal face. 

Cate discusses the month of January, and the challenges that January's data brings. This sunny month is not typically a high-activity month for property, but what is different about 2025? Speculation about interest rate cuts is potentially fuelling some markets, and the Trio are keeping a keen eye on Melbourne's possible change in sentiment. 

The combined regions outperformed the combined capitals both quarterly and annually. The Trio unpack some of the reasons why this has occurred of late, and why this may be an ongoing trend. 

Rental rates have certainly slowed, and as the rolling annual averages rolls through, it's evident that some cities are no longer applying rental increases currently. Adelaide seems to still be leading the chase, but there is no doubt that the heady days of post-COVID have eased in relation to rental increases. Cate ponders the newsfeed changes too. Daily news about housing affordability has subsided notably.

Rental yields are climbing, but with interest rates sitting above 6%pa,, cashflow neutral still remains elusive. Are buyers still searching for positive cashflow property? The Trio talk about the viability of this, as well as the challenges.

The Westpac consumer sentiment data illustrates what the Trio are experiencing at their individual coal faces. From House price expectations to Time to buy a dwelling, and in particular, Interest rate expectations, the metrics suggest there is a change in the air.  Cate says, "The data shows that there is a renewed sense of hope that we'll have easing rates, and an expectation that this will correlate with rising house prices." Mike makes the point that Australians indulging in travel has played a strong part in our economic outlook too.

ANZ Roy Morgan's consumer sentiment chart is a bonus for our listeners and we've popped it in our show notes. The impact of economic and environmental challenges is not lost on the Trio and the chart illustrates consumer sentiment reactions to challenges such as bushfires and various lockdowns.

The conversation around tariffs and US politics is not one that can be avoided. How will our resource-rich property markets respond to some of the recent news from America?

One of the burning discussions is about interest rates. Dave chats about some of the key considerations that the RBA apply when determining whether to move rates. Low unemployment, productivity, currency challenges and inflation are just some of the key items that are being watched. 

And the last conversation is about politics and policies... how could 2025's Federal election change things up in the property market? 

Cate closes the episode with a reference to the inflation figures, market expectations for a cut, and the implication of the cash rate decision this month. It's a cracking episode and we hope our listeners enjoy!  

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/17/ep-297-jan-2025-market-update/

Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

Cate hosts today's listener question episode and Matthew writes in with his question; "I'm currently seeking to purchase an investment property in Melbourne, with a max budget of $1.2 million (as advised by my mortgage broker). I'd appreciate your opinion on what you consider to be the optimal investment-grade asset."

The Trio each chat about the price points that they see investors circling when selecting an investment property budget. Unsurprisingly, Cate and Dave's client budgets are broadly aligned, but Mike's Quantity Surveying clients have budgets that are closer to the median price that the ATO has reported. Why are Cate and Dave's clients spending (on average) more than a typical investor? Personal plans, including stepping stone investments, holiday houses and future homes come into discussion. It's some of these quirks to traditional investment models that differ from median prices.

Can investors have it all? Growth, easy cashflow and future opportunities? Perhaps not, but Mike takes our listeners through the steps that investors go through when determining their strategy.

Cate talks about the rewards that a capital growth asset can provide, particularly through a higher rate of rental growth, but she reiterates that this benefit is dependent on time.

Matthew’s two options he’s come up with are as follows: Option 1: A single fronted two-bedroom cottage in the inner northern suburbs, such as Coburg, Preston, Pascoe Vale etc.  
 
Option 2: A three to four-bedroom freestanding home in the Bayside suburbs of Cheltenham, Chelsea etc. 

Cate describes the challenges that Matthew's brief will face, and she details some of the examples that Matthew has suggested. Finding renovated products is more costly in this climate due to builder shortages and materials cost increases. Aside from the price, Cate also points out that negative cashflow needs to be well-understood by an investor who is circling a house in the Melbourne market, (and several other markets also).

"'Sanity checking' these cashflows is an essential first step", says Dave. Aligning the purchase with the retirement goals is the next step, and only then can investors start boiling down to specific locations and dwelling types. This approach will hold an investor in good stead, regardless of the city that they are targeting.

Matthew has a desire not to buy into a strata asset. What are some of the reasons why investors like to avoid strata? And are all strata properties inferior assets when contrasted to houses? Tune in to find out..

The Trio each share their best tips for Matthew to get his next purchase started in the most optimal way.

Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/10/investor-listener-question-february-2025/

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It's another bumper episode, and we promise we won't keep clocking one hour eps.

Following on from last week's retrospective on how the Trio went with their 2024 predictions, this time they each shared their 2025 predictions.

What will the market do? - Cate thinks that 2025 will be a better market than 2024. Cate guesstimates 7.5% growth, nationally. Mike thinks a slight underperformance is on the cards when contrasting 2025 to 2024. Mike's national growth prediction is 4%, and Dave's prediction for national growth is closely aligned with Mike's, at 3%.

Dave pitches 2026 the year of strong performance.

Capital city top performers - The Trio aren't completely aligned with their top three picks. Cate kicks off with her predictions Adelaide, Perth and Melbourne, (in this order). Cate expands on her reasons and Adelaide's economic health, job growth and irresistible pull for visitors holds it in good stead for Cate. But why has Cate picked Melbourne at number three? Tune in to find out.

Mike's selection is Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.

Dave is very optimistic about Perth's performance this year, but he shares some 2026 confidence in the Melbourne market. His runners up are Adelaide and Melbourne for 2025. 

Regional locations - The Trio have an array of regional locations, including Townsville, Toowoomba, Gold Coast and surrounds. While they are all aligned with their optimism about the QLD regions, NSW and Victoria get a special mention too. Cate comments about the relative affordability and appeal of regional Tasmanian cities too, but she ponders how WA regions will travel in 2025. Dave suggests that regional SA will be in the top three regional performers.

Investor numbers - With rate cuts and higher rental yields, will investor numbers grow from the 2024 numbers? Mike concurs and thinks a 10% increase in investor lending will follow in 2025, while Dave goes into some good detail about specific states and investor numbers. Cate considers the potential affect of share market volatility, and the impact of increasing intergenerational wealth, too.

Government intervention in property market - Cate is doubtful that Victoria will receive any further tightening of rental legislation, and Mike agrees. The spotlight could be on investors if they become too strong a force against first homebuyer numbers. What could happen if the coalition form government? And will APRA consider easing the 3% credit buffer in 2025? Tune in to hear their thoughts.

Developers and building - What incentives will be offered to increase new builds and ease housing affordability? From Rent to Buy, to offering increased returns for new property, Dave has a few ideas. Cate predicts some more cost-effective, private, builders will free up and this could impact our current market segmentation. Cate, Mike and Dave estimate increased building starts for 2025 with some specific percentages each....

Interest rates - the Trio have a bit of fun with this. After last year's predictions, they decided to be much more specific with their predictions. From Rate Tracker data, to election timing and inflation figures, our three muskateers name the months, the retrospective rate movements and the total 2025 net interest rate movement.

Rents/Vacancy rates - Which cities will relax back to historical norms, and which will stay tight? Or will the capital cities all move in sync? The Trio have varied predictions, ensuring they keep it entertaining for the listeners.

Sales volumes - Considering consumer confidence, listing volumes, and vendor-commitment to selling is important when predicting sales volumes. Cate reflects on the year that was, and contrasts some of the situations that vendors will be facing in 2025. What makes vendors sit on their hands? Mike considers some of the challenges we may face. Dave holds greater hope for the back half of 2025, reminding us all that he is anticipating a brighter 2026.

Risks which could impact the market - Cate kicks the discussion off with her concerns; Overseas migration reduction threatening economic prosperity, China and US trade sanctions, Higher oil prices, APRA intervention with investor activity, Stock market corrections, and Unemployment rising faster than forecasted. Mike forewarns us about insurance woes, and in particular in relation to natural disasters He also touches on global conflict and the severe impact conflict can have on the property market. Resource prices, Immigration and Construction undersupply are also on Mike's list. Dave tops up the list with the following: Waning productivity in our nation, Poor political decisions in relation to government debt, More taxes on investors and The breakdown of our relationship with China.

Inflation - The Trio are all very exacting with their predicted figures. Who will get it right? Who will get it wrong?

While it's been lots of fun, it's the conversations that they enjoyed and the thoughts they each generated that make this episode a special one.

Show Notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/03/our-2025-predictions/