(11/16/23) This will be The Year of the Magnificent Seven--those dominant stocks that have powered the markets, responsible for 112% of this year's gains. Markets are working through earnings season; Target & WalMart: A tale of Two Retailers. Markets are returning to overbought conditions, ripe for a pullback. Best opportunities to add exposure will likely be post-Thanksgiving. The problem with easing financial conditions for the Fed: heighten exuberance leads to more spending & inflation. 20- Fed speakers this week made no mention of this. Recession will occur when employment turns sour. Fed guidance to markets: Not saying anything for a while, positioning to be "right," regardless of outcome. Why would the Fed cut rates? That's the Fed's conundrum. What does the Fed know that they're not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system. SEG-1: The Year of the Magnificent Seven SEG-2: The Fed's Problem w Easing Financial Conditions SEG-3: The Fed's Inflation Conundrum SEG-4: What Does the Fed Know They're not Telling Us? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blvFign-AWA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=10s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "When Not-so-Bad News is Good" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdv5qsINM00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Fed IS Done Raising Rates" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC87RoUuH3w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=42s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Employment Is Sending Signals: Recession Or Normalization?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/employment-is-sending-signals-recession-or-normalization/ "Speculator Or Investor? What’s The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FAANGstocks #MagnificentSeven #FederalReserve #CPI #Inflation #EconomicSentiment #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/16/23) Markets continue to work through earnings season; WalMart missed guidance in reporting their earnings estimates for the year. This has been a good year for WalMart vs Target, which had a great day yesterday: Target, too, missed earnings estimates, but not as badly as feared. Target stock was up 20% as a result. WalMart has had a great year, but will git hit a bit harder today on weaker forward-looking guidance. Markets have had a sharp advance over the last few days; as the end of the month approaches, and everyone thought markets would go lower, with bearish, negative sentiment, markets are now overbought, and there is a good chance for at least some consolidation or an outright pullback. When that happens, that's your opportunity to put some capital to work.  Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton --------  Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdv5qsINM00&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #EarningsSeason #Target #WalMart #MarketConsolidation #MarketPullback #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/15/23) What if Congress conducted its business in the fighting ring? Democracy is now Idiocracy. Market response to weaker CPI numbers results in a rally, and the Fed is done with raising rates. But...lower inflation numbers will be an encouragement for more sonsumer spending and elevate market moods, resulting in inflation. Markets rally through the 100-DMA, becoming key support. Markets are now over bought after retracing 78.6% of losses from the highs of Summer. PPI Preview & Christmas Shopping free for wall; don't be surprised by a market stall; bond yields are bouncing around; don't count the consumer down and out just yet. Understanding market sentiment through technical analysis. The need for confirmnation; the Death Cross in the Dow: Headlines and false narratives. Toyota's hybrid Camry; Secure Act 2.0 and changes to 529's: What if the money's not used? Defininf "college expenses," accountable to the IRS. The value of harvesting grant money for college; hiring a grant consultant. SEG-1: Market Response to Weaker CPI SEG-2: Never Rule-out the Consumer SEG-3: Understanding Market Sentiment thru Technical Analysis SEG-4: Changes to 529 Plans under Secure Act 2.0 Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC87RoUuH3w&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=42s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Watch for Pullbacks Toward the 100-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd5I57xSvoo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Economy Slowing More than We Know?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr0oq5N4m3Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Speculator Or Investor? What’s The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #EconomicSentiment #College529 #SecureAct2 #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/15/23) Markets not only held support at the 100-DMA, but smashed through higher on Tuesday. Now, the 100-DMA is the default support level, and any pullback towards that level will be a buying opportunity for the short term. Markets are now in overbought territory, and we're expecting a round of profit taking; don't know what the catalyst might be, but we've now achieved a 78.6% retracement of the entire decline from this Summer's highs. That's good. But, use any dips going forward to rebalance risk in your portfolio, particularly if you were nervousduring October's lows.  Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton --------  Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd5I57xSvoo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketResistance #MarketSupport #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/14/23) This is the last, full week of trading before the holidays hit; What will drive today's CPI number: Home owners' equivalent rent. Can the S&P exceed Friday's high? Markets are turning resistance into support, still no the backs of large cap companies; market is bifurcated vs mid- and small-cap companies. Oil Prices are under pressure; Gold is trading in a flat range. Markets are shrugging off bad news; spending bill needs to be done by Friday; Lance's budget commentary, and what really happens when the government shuts down. Why Home Depot is a bellwether for consumer spending; The economy is likely slowing down even more than we know. Self-checking groceries in inflationary times: Shrinkage goes from 2% to 4%. The collision of what you need vs what you can afford. Shopping on Amazon. If spending is slower, lower earnings and yields will result. The dynamic of economic sentiment and presidential elections. Financial Times poll: Are you better off now? 35% yes/65% no. 82% see rising prices as stressors. What to do about inflation? Stop spending money in Washington.  SEG-1: Last Full Week of Trading Before Holidays SEG-2: Markets Shrugging off Bad News SEG-3: Home Depot: The Bellwether for Consumer Spending SEG-4: Economic Sentiment & Presidential Elections Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr0oq5N4m3Y&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Oil Prices Under Pressure" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7QOZ3OImww&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Recession Fears Return as Bond Rates Drop" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZvwtGypsLQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=31s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Speculator Or Investor? What’s The Difference?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/speculator-or-investor-whats-the-difference/ "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #HomeDepot #EconomicBellwether #CongressionalSpending #CongressionalBudget #EconomicSentiment #PresidentialElection #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/14/23) Could the S&P rally to last Friday's high? Markets are turning resistance into support, as the climb to year-end continues. Markets remain bifurcated, however, with a disconnect between large cap vs small- and medium-cap stock performance. Oil prices are under pressure, and Gold remains in a flat trading range. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton --------  Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7QOZ3OImww&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketResistance #MarketSupport #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #BifurcatedMarket #Oil #Gold #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/13/23) CPI for October comes out tomorrow; PPI is released on Thursday; we're looking at sloppy trading until after Thanksgiving; how much will the resumption of student loan payments impact consumer spending for the holidays? Bond Yields are dropping in anticipation of recession. Markets on Friday retreated, then tested and surpassed 50-DMA, onward to the 100-DMA. Some stalling expected today; use subsequent rally to reduce portfolio risk. The next Congressional spending battle looms; how to cut spending: Adopt a budget. No budget in place since Obama. We could use a good government shut down for about 45-days or so. 60th Anniversary of The Improv (when comedians were clean AND funny). 2024 Economic Preview: Recession coming? The Employment Conundrum: There have been no new jobs added, just re-hires of pandemic-layoffs. The Door Dash Story: No more customer service. Lance's next gig: Dog Psychologist. SEG-1: CPI/PPI Preview SEG-2: The Next Spending Battle SEG-3: 2024 Economic Preview: Recession or No? SEG-4: Door Dash, Customer Service, & Pet Psychics Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZvwtGypsLQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=31s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Using the Rally to Rebalance Risk" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NYrwVgUNvg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Our previous show is here: "What Would You Give Up to Ensure SS is Around for You?  " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIl7mL-W5gg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "Bond Rates Drop As Recession Fears Return" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Recession #BondYields #Employment #CongressionalSpending #CongressionalBudget #SoftLanding #BondMarket #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/13/23) Markets retested the 50-DMA on Friday, and blasted on through to the 100_DMA. Some stalling is expected this morning, but any subsequent rally should be taken advantage of to rebalance portfolio risks. Expect sloppy trading between now and Thanksgiving. Don't be surprised to see a bit of a makret pullback this week; so, far the NASDAQ is up over 7% for the month, and we're only half-way through. If you were stressing last week at the bottom, use this rally to relance your risk, as we did. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton --------  Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NYrwVgUNvg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #PortfolioRebalancing #RebalancingRisk #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/9/23) Markets continue their winning ways, elongating a string of positive closes; Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak today: What effect will his words have on Bonds? Why do the debt and deficits matter so much now? (Keep in mind the narrative...) Have financial conditions eased or reversed? What will the Fed do next? Meanwhile, Markets to test resistance at 100-DMA. How Robinhood lost its luster, and why there should be commissions on all trades (nothing is free). Meanwhile, DraftKings has kept up: What's the difference between gambling on sports vs stocks? Did Robinhood user ever really know what they were doing? The mistake of assigning value to stock price. The Fed's 'Wait & See' approach will be further revealed in Jerome Powell's speech today. Changing the face of finance with an ever-present Fed; Goldman's Forecast doesn't bear up under scrutiny: Are economists making the same mistake all over again? How to forecast a recession vs 'soft-landing;' we WILL have a recession: The only question is the timing. SEG-1: Why Do Debts & Deficits Matter Now? (when they didn't before)? SEG-2: The Demise of Robinhood & "Free" Trading SEG-3: The Fed's 'Wait-and-See' Approach Effect on Bonds SEG-4: How to Forecast Recession Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXoGYSewzLE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Testing 100-DMA" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa2FoDMtCDI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 And here's Wednesday's "Before the Bell" edition, "Trapped," as referenced in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuDcsA-5pNE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Should You Borrow from Your 401k Plan?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7rpSbyLfl4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=7s  -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/2020-vs-2023-are-economists-making-the-same-mistake/ "Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-bear-market-is-it-dead-or-just-hibernating/ "Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren’t" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/job-and-retail-sales-data-always-good-until-they-arent/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #JeromePowell #FederalDeficit #FederalReserve #Robinhood #DraftKings  #InterestRates #Recession #SoftLanding #BondMarket #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/9/23) Markets added another positive day to their string of winning results, the longest since 2021. Markets have clearly broken the 50-DMA, and are now testing the 100-DMA. Markets are at the top of the downtrend channel, but are also overbought at this point, which suggests we should see a bit of a correction in the near term. We want to see the market hold around the 4,300 level so it can set up for a rally by the end of the year. Earnings seaons continues with 'okay' results, but majority of earnings growth still comes from the Magnificent 7 large-cap companies. Economic data is showing some signs of weakness, but nothing terrible. Money managers will be playing catch-up ahad of year's end, creating a bit of lift to markets.   Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton --------  Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa2FoDMtCDI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 And here's Wednesday's edition, "Trapped," as referenced in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuDcsA-5pNE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #MarketRally #MarketRetest #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #MutualFund #FundDistribution #SantaClausRally #Markets #Money #Investing