The Science of Politics

Many Members of Congress are electorally vulnerable this year. Do they have to moderate to survive? They may have another strategy: going local, pointing to their constituency service and the local interests they are serving. Jaclyn Kaslovsky finds that House members facing difficult elections spend more time at home, introduce more locally focused bills, and shift to serving their constituents. They de-emphasize national policymaking rather than dramatically changing their positions.

Voters now associate brands and lifestyle choices with each partisan side, meaning candidates can use ostensibly non-political signals like attending NASCAR and eating Chick-fil-a to show their loyalties. When do these candidate symbols translate into ideological reputations? Can candidates use the other parties' symbols to attract their voters? Levi Allen finds that voters can intuit partisanship from symbols like cowboy boots and a truck but rely more on partisan and policy information when it is available. Yet a Republican candidate drinking Starbucks and driving a Prius can cost him with Republicans without helping him with Democrats.

Headlines showed U.S. debt passing the $40 trillion mark and bond market jitters. But addressing the debt's quick rise is not a top priority for either party. Were they ever fiscally responsible or were they just paying lip service? And why has it moved even further down the agenda? Derek Epp finds that both parties introduce measures that increase spending and vote to expand the deficit. Republicans do cast more show votes for deficit reduction, but not when they count for policy.

Housing advocates have won state policy changes and a new federal law. But can they overcome publics that still blame landlords and developers for rising prices. Christopher Elmendorf finds that housing opinions aren’t just a problem of people wanting fewer renters in their backyard. Instead, the public fundamentally misunderstands supply and demand: they don’t believe that more supply would lower prices and instead favor crackdowns on the suppliers.

Candidates affiliated with (or sympathetic to) the Democratic Socialists of America (the DSA) have recently won several Democratic primaries. Although this rise of the left takes a different form, it draws from prior social movements and Bernie Sanders' presidential candidacies. David Purucker has been both a close observer and a participant. He studied how the DSA makes decisions and organizes. Its electoral role draws from its relationship with the labor movement and other liberal causes. He says this year will raise a lot of questions about how the group responds to electoral success and failure.

Candidates celebrate when their campaigns are funded by small contributions. Small donors are playing far greater roles in American politics but they are not having the positive envisioned effects. Ray La Raja and Zach Albert find that small donors are just as advantaged, partisan, and extreme as larger donors, but more impulsive, empowering show horse celebrities and norm breakers over consensus-building lawmakers. They want to redirect reformers’ energy toward strengthening political parties and emphasizing local representation.

We fear that legislatures are gridlocked and performative, rather than focused on actually passing new laws. But some legislators are consistently more effective than others, at the state and national levels. Can we train legislators to be more effective at advancing their bills? Mackenzie Dobson finds that training programs for state legislators don’t make them more effective than their untrained colleagues. Most of the factors that make legislators more effective are structural: the competition between the parties and the positions they hold. Some of the common advice, find bipartisan partners and become an issue area expert, may not work everywhere.

Elite polarization may be helping young people sort out their politics but it could also make them misperceive how the other side lives. Delia Baldassarri finds that millennial and gen Z are now aligning their issue positions with partisanship as much as older generations. They are choosing their party more based on cultural and moral issues and, up to now, that’s been helping Democrats. But partisans assume that the other side has more stereotypical social groups and extreme views than they do. So polarization has confused us about how divided we are.

The Supreme Court’s voting rights decision is upending the midterm election and raising concerns about its role in democratic backsliding. Thomas Keck finds that the Court has rarely helped maintain democratic guardrails in threatening periods. But the Roberts Court had been showing a mixed record until recently. Albert Rivero finds that election law cases at the Supreme Court lead to more party-line voting, but the cases have stood out less as the Court has become more partisan across the board.

Economic inequality is high and rising, without much political response. Most stay that's because our political institutions overrepresent the views of the rich. But Andrew Taylor finds that poor Americans don’t prioritize solving inequality or redistributive policy. They want their representatives to focus more on distributive politics and constituency service and that’s what they do. It's a corrective to a lot of common social science assumptions.