The Transfer Flow Podcast

Ted Knutson, a former professional gambler, shares his picks for every Premier League match this weekend and explains why you shouldn’t chase the action on weeks where the total bet number is small. He then goes over some of the reads he shared on social media earlier this week. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:16 - Bet105

02:28 - Brighton v Chelsea

04:04 - The best players are only worth so much to lines, even Messi and Ronaldo

04:43 - Leicester v Arsenal

06:24 - Fulham v Forest

06:55 - Southampton v Bournemouth

07:45 - Aston Villa v Ipswich

08:33 - Man City v Newcastle

11:08 - West Ham v Brentford

12:07 - Crystal Palace v Everton

13:14 - DON’T chase the action

14:23 - Liverpool v Wolves

15:00 - Tottenham v United

16:57 - Running totals and new bet size

17:56 - Ted’s recent reads on Plymouth and AC Milan

21:11 - More about The Transfer Flow

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On today's episode, Patrick is joined by Neel Shelat to discuss all things Champions League from Tuesday's slate of games. They start with the big one, Real Madrid's 3-2 victory over Manchester City. Where were the new transfers, what went wrong for both teams, and can City bounce back in the 2nd leg? After discussing the other games from Tuesday, the conversation switches to the Saudi Pro league and the market opportunities for smart teams. Should more European clubs be trying to get players BACK from Saudi? The episode ends with Kai Havertz' season ending injury. Should Arsenal have made a move in January? Enjoy!

Neel's article on Man City's huge January window: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/manchester-city-spent-180m-planning-for-the-future

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:04 - Neel’s Manchester City transfer article

03:17 - Marmoush is the biggest impact for this season

04:35 - These transfers were meant to rejuvenate an aging squad

05:16 - The transfers did not play early

05:53 - The start of the game + Real Madrid’s initial plan

07:29 - City should have taken more advantage of Madrid’s poor start

07:49 - City have forgotten how to close out games

09:48 - The pressing in this game was staggeringly incompetent

10:35 - Bellingham grew as the game went on

11:18 - Their 2020 matchup and the similarities between the games

12:42 - City’s intensity dropped in the second half

14:49 - The threat of Vinicius vs. De Bruyne

15:42 - Will City become more of a transition side with Marmoush?

17:28 - City must score early in the 2nd leg

18:28 - Quick roundup of Tuesday’s UCL games

18:55 - Juventus vs. PSV

21:33 - Dortmund vs Sporting + the transition to Kovac

24:42 - Opportunities for teams in the Saudi Pro League

25:46 - How many foreign players in the Saudi Pro League?

26:58 - Teams are maxed out - No more huge market movement

27:48 - Fofana example + the opportunity to get players to improve European teams

28:49 - Teams have to be careful with wages

31:08 - Players now have to be careful about getting replaced in a few years time

32:29 - The difference between Saudi and the Chinese Super League

35:16 - Kai Havertz out for the season for Arsenal

36:04 - The timing of moves matters

37:31 - Rotating players to avoid injuries during long seasons

39:06 - Arsenal have ran their stars into the ground

39:45 - Options to replace Havertz + players returning from injury for Arsenal

40:42 - Arteta needs to think about his 13/14 key player rotation + Using Arsenal’s great academy

42:16 - The amount of games are not going to go down ($$$$$$)

42:55 - Where to find Neel

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On today’s episode, Ted and Patrick breakdown every match in the Knockout phase of the Champions League. They start with the biggest match of the round, Real Madrid vs. Manchester City. Both teams have clear weaknesses, but who will be able to take advantage of them the most? Then they get into Ousmane Dembele, is he the best player in the world right now? Stay tuned to see the hosts live reaction to Feyenoord sacking Brian Priske, underrated matches to watch this round, and some stories from Ted. The episode ends with predictions for EVERY matchup and some behind the scenes footage. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Nicolas Cage is a Coppola?

00:54 - Champions League Playoffs

01:31 - Real Madrid v Man City

02:25 - City are a coin flip and Pep vs Ancelotti

04:57 - How both teams will approach this game

05:53 - Ederson is the best long-ball goalkeeper in the world

07:38 - Madrid can’t press, but their ability to play out from pressure is elite

08:28 - Madrid Derby reactions

09:45 - Dani Ceballos is Madrid’s best player at the moment

11:25 - Patrick vs Rodri, who wins right now?

12:04 - Real Madrid have the worst defensive record in the UCL, why did they make no moves?

15:36 - But surely Real Madrid could have done SOMETHING?

17:10 - Football nepotism = Genepotism

18:24 - Brest vs PSG + Dembele is the form player in the world right now

19:26 - Dembele’s positional change

20:40 - How his ability to use both feet impacts defenders

21:22 - The drastic xG difference

24:55 - Juventus vs PSV

26:16 - Sporting v Dortmund

27:21 - One to watch for potential summer transfers

28:56 - Brugge v Atalanta

29:46 - Atalanta play a very unique style

30:34 - How is Gasperini doing this?

31:36 - The oddities of Italian coaches + a story from Ted

32:52 - Celtic v Bayern Munich

35:21 - Do Celtic have it in them?

36:11 - Feyenoord v AC Milan

37:42 - Milan’s season is becoming more and more unhinged

38:50 - Zlatan not being a bit, he’s just weird

40:01 - Should be a fun contest between managers?

41:27 - Breaking news - Priske sacked mid recording + Reactions

43:32 - Monaco v Benfica is sneaky fun

44:41 - Can Benfica replicate their form?

46:41 - A ton of young, exciting players in this game

49:22 - Predictions for EVERY matchup

51:53 - Behind the scenes - Andre 3000, Australians, and a cliffhanger from Ted

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On today’s episode, Patrick is joined by José C. Pérez to discuss the end of the transfer window. They start with Man City’s spending spree this January and the addition of Nico Gonzalez. Is he their Rodri replacement? The conversation moves to Aston Villa, where the guys try to make sense of their additions. How will Unai Emery use his new firepower? Next, Arsenal and Liverpool both made no moves, but does this mean the Gunners are throwing in the towel? Then comes La Liga, whose teams spent far less this window than the other big leagues. Real Madrid also made no moves, despite a squad that needs upgrades. Is it a sign of things to come across Europe, or is it only due to their financial regulations? The episode finishes with discussion of AC Milan’s moves this window, including Joao Felix, and Como and Rennais both making a TON of moves. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:37 - Man City have spent BIG this window

02:14 - Have City neglected their needs for a while?

04:43 - City’s press has rapidly declined

06:22 - An aging squad + Rodri’s injury

07:56 - Nico Gonzalez history and escaping Barcelona’s grasp

09:18 - City need a more positional version of Gonzalez

10:42 - Physicality and similarities to Rodri

13:27 - Jose’s thoughts on Aston Villa’s window

16:43 - Similarities between Rashford and Malen

17:59 - Asensio’s quality, but do they have enough defensive presence?

19:36 - Why did Liverpool and Arsenal make no moves?

21:24 - Are Arsenal throwing in the towel?

22:46 - Why did La Liga make so few moves?

25:03 - Why are Real Madrid making no moves if they have the money?

27:17 - Why are Madrid averse to spending on defenders?

27:51 - A historic spending spree coming?

30:22 - Serie A went MAD

30:47 - Conceicao and AC Milan’s window

31:51 - How does Joao Felix fit in?

33:05 - Kyle Walker as a conventional RB?

34:33 - Does the Santiago Gimenez make sense?

36:52 - What will Conceicao’s style look like?

37:51 - Como and Rennes make a TON of moves

40:21 - A mix of reloading on talent and trying to win now?

42:09 - Should they have done fewer transfers, given how hard it is to interchange squads?

44:28 - Where can people find Jose?

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On today’s episode, Ted and Patrick discuss Arsenal’s 5-1 victory over Manchester City. Have Arsenal’s academy kids saved their season? Then comes Aston Villa, who have acquired Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio on loan. Why have they agreed to pay the rumoured 75% of Rashford’s wages? Next, Tottenham’s search for defenders and the loan addition of Mathys Tel from Bayern Munich. Why would spurs agree to a loan deal if it only helps Bayern? The episode ends with discussion of Evan Ferguson’s loan move to West Ham, Brighton stockpiling assets, and the atmosphere at the Arsenal/Man City game. Stick around for behind the scenes footage with discussion of Japanese game shows, Natalie Portman, and Kumail Nanjiani.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:50 - Arsenal thrash Man City

03:14 - Teams are teeing off on the City press this year

05:03 - Lewis-Skelly and the Arsenal kids SAVED their season

06:08 - Nwaneri and Lewis-Skelly don’t look like kids

07:03 - How good Academy players influence the rest of the squad

08:09 - They’re mentally ahead of the curve

09:55 - Not every youngster is capable of this

10:33 - Will Lewis-Skelly stay at left-back?

12:36 - Arsenal are in win now mode

15:27 - Marcus Rashford and Asensio to Aston Villa

16:49 - Why are they paying 75% of Rashford wages?

17:37 - Villa are focusing on the Champions League

18:55 - Villa love a big name from a big club

20:24 - Tottenham’s search for defenders

20:36 - Palace turns down 70M for Guehi? And Brighton turned down 90M for Mitoma?

22:40 - Spurs sign Tel on a straight loan… WHY?

24:02 - Spurs sign Kevin Danso as well, is he a backup?

26:20 - Will Spurs try a back 3? + Back 3’s this season

28:28 - Brighton and Fabian Hurzeler

29:27 - Teams can save themselves money by having design

30:00 - Brighton let Evan Ferguson join West Ham on loan

30:42 - What would you want Ferguson’s buy option to be here?

33:01 - He’s going to a coach who knows him

34:10 - What would Brighton hope to get for him in the summer?

36:24 - Brighton are stockpiling forwards

38:03 - Brighton have everything in place, but Hurzeler might not be the coach for the job

38:41 - City fans complaining about the Arsenal atmosphere

39:47 - It’s part of wearing the crown

40:19 - The Arsenal/Man City games have become a real rivalry

42:48 - PSG have ruined their rivalry with Marseille

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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, shares his picks for EPL Matchday 24. He shares why he's taking Bournemouth over Liverpool, betting on Ipswich, and staying away from Arsenal v Man City.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:40 - Find the best Prices at Bet105

01:40 - The BEST Super Bowl promo

02:22 - Forest v Brighton

04:31 - Bournemouth v Liverpool

07:23 - Newcastle v Fulham

09:02 - Everton v Leicester

10:46 - Ipswich v Southampton

12:19 - Wolves v Aston Villa

14:36 - United v Crystal Palace

15:00 - Brentford v Tottenham

16:23 - Arsenal v Manchester City

18:43 - Chelsea v West Ham

20:19 - How much Ted has in play this weekend

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On this episode, Patick is joined by Hayden Van Brewer to discuss the latest transfer rumours around Europe. They start with Garnacho leaving Manchester United and look at the best potential landing spots. Does he fit in better at Chelsea, or should Napoli make a serious run at him? Next comes Brian Brobbey, who has been linked with West Ham this January. Does he fit in well with Graham Potters system and what skillset would he bring? The conversation turns to Victor Boniface, who has an offer from Saudi side Al Nassr. Could he make a difference on a top European team instead? We finish up with Rayan Cherki being linked to Newcastle and Albert Gronbaek's move to Southampton. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:11 - Garnacho appears DONE at Manchester United

02:33 - Clubs interested in Garnacho

04:11 - How he fits at Chelsea

05:20 - Whats a better fit, Chelsea or Napoli?

07:09 - The creativity at Chelsea suits Garnacho

08:01 - What about his defensive side?

09:26 - Garnacho is still only 21 + Amorim’s system needs money

11:16 - Brian Brobbey linked with West Ham

12:06 - Brobbey is a physical specimen + his skillset

13:39 - A replacement for Antonio?

14:53 - Would he fit in with Graham Potter?

16:51 - Why did he not work at Leipzig?

18:36 - Victor Boniface linked with Saudi

19:49 - Boniface could be a difference maker for a Europa/Champions League side

21:15 - Is the market wary of players with injury history?

23:41 - How do pro teams look at a players trends and injury concerns?

26:45 - Rashford linked to Barcelona, but he has lots of miles on his legs

27:33 - We’ve talked about this with Kobie Mainoo

28:20 - Is there a market opportunity? Or are older players too risky?

30:35 - Looking where others aren’t gives you the most chance to find an edge

32:01 - Rayan Cherki on the Market, linked with Newcastle

33:22 - Could Newcastle convert him like Joelinton?

34:36 - His skillset would help Newcastle unlock defenses

35:32 - Too much of a weakness in the press?

37:11 - A good partner for Aleksander Isak

37:40 - What club would suit Cherki the best?

39:35 - Albert Gronbaek to Southampton

40:30 - Gronbaek’s skillset

41:51 - The dutchification of The Transfer Flow

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On this episode, Ted and Patrick start by discussing Manchester City's 3-1 win over Chelsea this weekend. Khusanov struggled, Marmoush excelled, and Robert Sanchez needs to be replaced. The conversation turns to who will finish the Champions League spots. Can Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Forest overtake City and Chelsea, or will the giants regain their form? To round out the episode Patrick and Ted take a look at some transfer rumours. They start with Patrick Dorgu being linked to United, how he fits, and what his price should be. Then, 18-year-old Sverre Nypan has interest from many clubs. Is a move to Arsenal in the cards, or could he prefer a lower league before making the jump to the EPL? Make sure to stay tuned until the end of the episode for a behind the scenes look at Sir Alex Ferguson stories, Ted's invite to a Party, and Billy Beane.

Tickets for the party Ted mentions: https://zalevska.webflow.io/korporatyv-eng?fbclid=PAY2xjawIEdFpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABpop_xpK7gZiFyk8r-GL6W8n5Y_LZ3Q48xOv1TUyL7ZqeWPEp0htiwhz2Uw_aem_jG_OuTl6kQHs3Yp94__tJw

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:07 - Man City v Chelsea + Khusanov’s rough start

02:33 - Haaland’s creation during the game

03:10 - Gvardiol and a continuing theme for Pep

04:16 - Marmoush fit in instantly

06:00 - 2 teams who want to play with control, but neither had it

06:37 - What does this performance mean for Chelsea?

07:53 - Sanchez has the yips

08:36 - A change at keeper is surely coming

10:02 - Maresca has Chelsea playing to the level of their talent

11:31 - The importance of asking questions in football

13:01 - 2 instances where Ted called out bad transfers

15:06 - GM’s and DoF’s should be in the media regularly

16:09 - The race for Champions League spots in the Premier League

16:45 - Ted disagrees with Patrick

17:20 - Bournemouth's form despite an injury crisis

17:52 - Are Forest in trouble?

18:37 - Can Bournemouth add any players?

19:44 - City still have problems defensively and with the press

20:56 - Can city rebuild their press?

22:47 - So who makes it into the top 5?

23:59 - Who falls out of the CL spots?

25:07 - The second team out?

26:37 - Newcastle are the most fragile of the contenders

27:56 - Everything but the title race should be interesting to follow

28:35 - Patrick Dorgu to United?

29:25 - How much is he worth?

30:03 - He has traits to succeed in the EPL and at United

30:42 - He sometimes is able to coast, which hurts him

32:02 - He fits into a tough position at United

33:39 - Should they buy back Alvara Carreras instead?

34:39 - It looks like Garnacho will be gone eventually

35:12 - Sverre Nypan rumours

36:10 - Other Norwegian youngsters

37:05 - Nypan’s skillset + Does a weak league hurt him?

38:22 - What’s a comfortable price?

39:15 - Arsenal’s history of developing young talent

41:43 - The Premier League is back to attracting the best young talent

42:46 - Trying out new hosts!

44:27 - Behind the scenes footage (Sir Alex Ferguson story, Ted’s party invite for everyone, and Billy Beane?)

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On episode 9 of Variance Betting, Ted goes over his big results from last week, gives a crash course on discount bookies and Asian Handicaps, and shares his bets for Premier League Matchday 23!

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:10 - Running totals, last weeks recap, and updated bet size

04:29 - New courses coming this summer

05:13 - Why we prefer Discount Bookies + Bet105 promo

08:38 - Why Asian handicap betting?

12:00 - What is Variance Betting?

14:13 - Liverpool v Ipswich

15:34 - Wolves v Arsenal

16:41 - Brighton v Everton

18:17 - Southampton v Newcastle

18:54 - Bournemouth v Forest

19:45 - City v Chelsea

21:58 - Tottenham v Leicester

22:59 - Crystal Palace v Brentford

24:27 - Aston Villa v West Ham

25:47 - Fulham v United

26:45 - Total bets this week

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On this episode, Ted and Patrick roundup Champions League matchday 7 and preview the Wednesday night games. They start with Barcelona's 5-4 comeback over Benfica which featured featured a ton of chaos. The conversation turns to Atletico Madrid's 2-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen and why Julian Alvarez is such a good fit for Atletico. Next comes Bologna's 2-1 upset over Dortmund. Nuri Sahin was sacked, but can the next manager solve Dortmund's problems? In the transfer mill, Yoane Wissa has been linked to Nottingham Forest, but will Brentford sell the 28-year-old? , Ted and Patrick share their thoughts on the huge game between Manchester City and PSG tonight. Both teams are in the danger zone, but can one of them earn a much needed victory? The episode closes with Ted's bets for Wednesday's games, our search for a new host, and 18 simultaneous games next week. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:27 - The chaos of Benfica v Barcelona + Szczęsny tackle

02:56 - Pavlidis hat-trick + Barca’s high line

03:53 - Club Brugge v Juventus bore fest

05:35 - It’s difficult to play this Barca team for the first time

06:11 - Was Raphinha’s goal intentional or an accident?

07:40 - Benfica penalty shouts then Barca’s winning goal in the final minute

09:21 - Pavlidis as a potential transfer target

09:48 - Atletico Madrid v Leverkusen

10:52 - Ted’s recent run on Variance Betting

12:49 - Atletico’s unusual defensive style

13:58 - Alvarez is a perfect fit for Atletico + Griezmann story

15:38 - The winning goal

16:42 - Wissam Ben Yedder and tiny, square players

17:24 - The most interesting thing about Atletico this season

18:12 - Bologna v Dortmund and Nuri Sahin sacking

18:58 - Guirassy panenka penalty

19:45 - Dortmund can’t get out of their own way

20:58 - Roger Schmidt as next Dortmund manager?

21:30 - Would Andoni Iraola make sense?

22:38 - Yoane Wissa linked to Nottingham Forest

24:10 - Wissa’s skillset

24:54 - What should the price be?

26:27 - What would his role be at Forest?

28:51 - Patrick’s love for Thomas Frank

29:37 - PSG vs Man City

30:23 - PSG have struggled against physicality

31:37 - Weaknesses with City

32:51 - PSG have been what the critics say they are

33:33 - Can PSG’s runners trouble City?

34:19 - Marquinhos’ importance to City

35:08 - Real Madrid v Salzburg and Feyenoord v Bayern Munich

35:59 - Clash of styles between Inter Milan and Sparta Prague

36:20 - Arsenal can lock up top 8 vs. Dinamo Zagreb

37:36 - The gap from 26th to 27th may save one of PSG and City

38:07 - 18 games at the same time next week

39:19 - Help us find a Co-host!

40:50 - Subscribe to Variance Betting to increase Ted’s base bet size

#championsleague #barcelona #psg #manchestercity #brentford #nottinghamforest #football #soccer #realmadrid #transfernews #football #soccer #raphinha

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