In today's epsiode, we dive deep into the economic dynamics shaping the Eurozone focusing on a critical issue: inflation expectations.

We uncover what financial markets can reveal about the of future inflation and also discuss evidence coming from investor and household surveys.

We're thrilled to have Ricardo Reis join us today. Ricardo is the A.W. Phillips Professor at the London School of Economics and an esteemed expert on inflation expectations and inflation-linked financial instruments.

In today's episode we dive into the complex world of state-based international lending. Recent years have seen a resurgence in cross-border state lending, highlighted by the significant financial support Ukraine has received from Western countries and China's growing role as a global lender. Additionally, central bank swap lines have become a common feature after the 2007/08 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Joining us is Christoph Trebesch from the Kiel Institute. Christoph is the Head of the Research Center on International Finance and Macroeconomics and a Professor of Macroeconomics at Kiel University. He will share his expert insights on this critical topic. Don’t miss it!

Join us today as we delve into the results of the European elections and their far-reaching consequences. We have the pleasure of speaking with Sophia Russack from the Centre of European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels. Sophia is an expert in European politics and policy making, making her the perfect guest to shed light on the European election outcomes and their implications. Don't miss this insightful discussion! Tune in now!

The ECB has cut rates by 0.25% in its June meeting for the first time in many years. This happened despite forecasts of inflation having been revised slightly upwards. We review the reasoning behing this decision and the outlook for rates going forward.

Join us for an insightful discussion with Roman Arjona, Chief Economist at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs. We'll delve into the current state and future of Europe's Single Market, exploring how it compares to the US and the challenges it faces in a changing global trade landscape. Roman Arjona, also Vice-Chair of the OECD’s Committee for Industry, Innovation and Entrepreneurship, brings his expertise to shed light on these critical issues.

Join us as we discuss the outlook for ECB policy rates for the upcoming June policy meeting and thereafter. We put perspective on recent Euro Area growth numbers, consumer spending dynamics, and the inflation outlook. While a June rate cut looks likely, uncertainty about policy rates beyond June appears substantial. Currently available data suggest, however, a sequence of rate cuts.

Join our interesting discussion with Prof. Thiess Buettner, Chairman of the Independent Advisory Board of the German Stability Council, about fiscal policy challenges in Germany.

Countries across Europe and the United States have witnessed a significant surge in government debt and interest rates in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Join us as we engage in a conversation with Vítor Gaspar, Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, about possible stability risks confronting government finances and the need to manage these risks.

The neutral rate is relevant for understaning the stance of monetary policy and for the fiscal outlook, as it determines the financing conditions for government debt. We explain how the neutral rate is defined, discuss its economic determinants and provide estimates of how it has changed since the pre-pandemic period. Increased government debt supply appears to have excerted substantial upward pressure on the neutral rate.

We make reference to the following papers:

Thiago Ferreira and Samer Shousha titled “The supply of safe assets and global interest rates” , Journal of International Economics, 2023.

Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi. titled “What explains the decline in r*? Rising income inequality versus demographic shifts.” Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium, 2021.

We review the fiscal position of France, Germany, Italy and Spain, discuss the need for consolidation and how it could be implemented with minimal harm to output.