The Weekly Trend

In this episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan break down a market sitting near all-time highs despite significant damage beneath the surface, with nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks more than 20% below their own all-time highs. They discuss the continued leadership from technology and semiconductors, the potential for breadth to finally expand, and whether beaten-down areas of the market can catch up or the strongest trends simply keep getting stronger. The conversation also examines washed-out breadth readings, bearish investor sentiment, rising money-market allocations, higher oil and interest rates, widening credit spreads, a strengthening dollar, and the surprising resilience of Bitcoin. With Q4 historically one of the stronger seasonal periods, they consider whether the recent flush has run its course or whether the cap-weighted indexes still have some catching down to do.

In this episode of The Weekly Trend, David Zarling and Ian McMillan examine a market sending dramatically different signals above and below the surface. The S&P 500 remains near its highs while the Nasdaq, technology, and several areas of semiconductor leadership push toward or into new highs, but underneath the indexes, breadth has deteriorated sharply, with a large percentage of stocks already experiencing significant corrections. David and Ian break down whether this washout is setting the stage for a broadening Q4 rally or whether the weakness underneath the surface eventually pulls the major indexes lower. They discuss semiconductor leadership, AI and software, FANG and MAG stocks, struggling small and mid caps, rising CCC credit spreads, industrials and materials testing key technical levels, and the continued pressure from rising interest rates. They also check in on Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, Ethereum, the U.S. dollar, and several important relative-strength relationships as they look for clues about what comes next.

In Episode 314, David Zarling and Ian McMillan break down a market that continues to frustrate investors with months of sideways price action despite the major indexes remaining relatively close to their highs. They dig into deteriorating breadth, extremely low stock correlations, elevated dispersion, bearish sentiment, and the growing number of S&P 500 stocks already experiencing meaningful corrections beneath the surface. The conversation also covers energy’s continued leadership, fading international and small-cap relative strength, improving action in parts of crypto, and the remarkably small number of stocks that have cleared their June highs and gone on to new all-time highs. With the S&P, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 essentially going nowhere since May, they debate whether the market is simply consolidating within an uptrend, setting up for a broader “flush and go,” or slowly wearing investors out while waiting for price action to finally prove the next move.

  In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss market breadth and the dispersion between stocks within the S&P 500 and the index itself, sector performance and more specifically how Energy continues to outperform, treasury yields, credit spreads, volatility, and seasonality.  

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the continued sideways move in the S&P 500, dispersion analysis of stocks within the S&P 500, cryptocurrencies that are showing strength, international equities, whether we are going to see areas that lead early in the year taking back the reins to end the year, and which areas of transports are looking the best. 

In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the rough look out of the Russell 2000, the poor performance out of Industrials except for Marine Shipping. They also discuss the potential failed breakdown in long-term U.S. Treasuries, Cryptocurrencies, Semiconductors, and market breadth. 

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the Russell 2000, Basic Materials areas of the market like FCX, Copper Miners, Gold Miners, Silver Miners, and the relative charts of the miners to the physical metal. They also discuss the recent price action in Biotechnology, Energy, and Regional Banks and how areas like that can sometimes perk up towards the end of a market cycle, U.S. Treasuries, interest rates, and risk on/risk off metrics in the fixed income markets. 

In this week's episodeIn this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 is still above the range and 7600, equal-weight to cap-weighted relationships, the strength out of marine transportation stocks, market breadth, interest rate cycles, gambling versus investing, and real estate cycles. 

In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the S&P 500 getting above 7600, areas of the market that have led so far out of the range, precious metals, precious metals miners, fixed income, and credit spreads. 

 In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the inability of  broad financials, insurance, and healthcare to hold gains made earlier in the week, how European financials and larger global banks continue to stand out, interesting relative relationships, like growth versus value and micro caps versus mega caps. They also discuss the breakdown in long-term US treasuries, recent pullback in the US Dollar, and the continued back and forth between the Magnificent Seven constituents.