The Weekly Trend

 In this week's episode Ian and Kevin discuss the continued strength out of Semiconductors and Technology, while other areas of the market failed to reach or surpass previous highs. They also discuss the strength out of Asia while Latin America cools off, Bitcoin, Small Caps, and that they would like to see risk-on behavior continued in the fixed income space. 

In Episode 295 of the Weekly Trend podcast, David and Ian break down the market’s stunning return to new all-time highs, unpacking what the sharp V-shaped recovery means for investors, advisors, and anyone still waiting for a pullback that may never come. They explore the significance of the S&P 500 reclaiming its 200-day moving average, the psychology of chasing strength after a fast rebound, why weak breadth still deserves attention, and how leadership from semiconductors, AI, crypto, and other high-beta areas may be signaling a renewed risk-on environment. The conversation also dives into the limits of narrative-driven investing, the value of technical analysis during fast-moving market shifts, and how their rules-based Adaptive Select ETF responded by moving back into participation after a brief defensive period. 

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 being back above a 200 day moving average, where do you start with reconstructing your portfolio, the strength out of semiconductors and other risk-on areas of the market. They also discuss how software, private credit, Bitcoin, MAGS, and FNGS continue to lag. Other topics discussed are International equities and is the move in oil and energy over? 

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 moving below 6500, continued strength early in the week followed by weakness moving into the weekend, Magnificent Seven and mega-cap tech leading to the downside again, the relationship between energy stocks and oil, international areas holding up well on a relative basis, and what they are seeing in fixed income and commodities.  

 In this week's episode Ian and Kevin discuss the major indices now below their 200-day moving averages, what it would look like if the S&P 500 does not find support at 6500, the rough look for long-term treasuries and fixed income in general, trade-weighted U.S. Dollar fighting to get back above 100, the performance out of energy and how that parallels 2022 behavior, and how international equities need to find support.  

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the bullish engulfing candles witnessed on Monday, but no follow-through in sight with the S&P back below 6800. They also discuss the relationship between oil and energy prices, when else have we seen Financials be the worst performer to start the year, breadth deterioration, what it means if XLP breaks down while outperforming the rest of the market on a relative basis, fixed income and interest rates, international equities, and what is going on with Private Credit. Also discussed is precious metals, precious metals miners, changes in membership of the S&P 500, and cryptocurrency. 

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the continued chop in the S&P 500, bearish sentiment, retail buying, energy stocks with the increase in oil prices, support and resistance, theses for the range in the S&P 500 being further consolidation and then a move higher, or the forming of a market top.  

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 continuing to be rangebound, sector rotation and industry performance during different points of the market cycle. They also discuss what it would look like if there is a mid-year 8-12% correction which would be perfectly normal with mid-term year seasonality. Other topics discussed is cryptocurrencies, Nvidia earnings reaction, materials and miners, microcaps, international equities, interest rates, private credit, and the U.S. Dollar.  

 In this week's episode David and Kevin discuss the S&P 500 continuing to be within a tight range, bearish market sentiment with large amounts of short selling, what would happen if the Magnificent 7 and software begin to participate to the upside, the continued strength internationally, precious metals, continued strength in value sectors, and what could conflict in Iran mean for the market.  

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P remaining range-bound, differentiation between S&P 500 performance and the average performance of it's constituents. They also discuss market breadth, sentiment, the continued drawdown in software, how homebuilders are starting to look interesting along with transportation stocks even with the rough week for trucking stocks. They also discuss seasonality moving into the second half of February, interest rates and what a move lower in rates might mean for the broader market.