Thinkers & Ideas

In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World, Hal Brands illuminates the historical patterns we must understand in order to better navigate the geopolitical rivalries of the present.

Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is also a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. In his new book, he traces the arc from World War I to today’s rivalries between the United States and China, and between NATO and Russia.

In his conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses why the 20th and 21st centuries are the Eurasian (rather than the American) Era, how today’s rivalries among great powers differ from those of the past, and what global business must pay attention to in navigating current geopolitical tensions.

Key topics discussed: 

01:28 | The 20th and 21st centuries as the Eurasian era

05:32 | The “historic achievement” of the Cold War

08:34 | How today’s rivalries among great powers are different

13:14 | The future of Eurasia

15:59 | How global businesses can operate in a polarized geopolitical world

20:13 | Reasons to be optimistic vs. pessimistic about the future

Additional inspirations from Hal Brands:

• Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, co-authored by Michael Beckley (W. W. Norton & Company, 2022)
• The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order, co-authored by Charles Edel (Yale University Press, 2019)
• The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us about Great-Power Rivalry Today (Yale University Press, 2019)
• What Good Is Grand Strategy?: Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman to George W. Bush (Cornell University Press, 2014)

In The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters, Dame Diane Coyle argues that traditional measures like GDP no longer capture economic realities.

Coyle is the Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge. She is also the director of the Productivity Institute, a fellow of the Office for National Statistics, and a member of the UK’s Competition Commission. Drawing on her deep expertise, she proposes an alternative framework for measuring productivity that enables better policymaking.

In her conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, she discusses the shortcomings of GDP—such as a lack of accounting for immaterial goods or natural capital, alternative measures of progress, and how corporate leaders should rethink their approach to measurement.

Key topics discussed: 

01:32 | The shortcomings of GDP as a measure of productivity

09:14 | The issues of inflated GDP statements

11:12 | Alternative measures of productivity and progress

13:47 | A time-based approach to measuring productivity

16:39 | How productivity measurement works in practice

18:57 | Implications for corporate leaders

Additional inspirations from Diane Coyle:

• Cogs and Monsters: What Economics Is, and What It Should Be (Princeton University Press, 2021)
• GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History (Princeton University Press, 2015)
• The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters (Princeton University Press, 2009)
• Sex, Drugs and Economics: An Unconventional Intro to Economics (Texere, 2002)

In Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that the nature of international power has fundamentally shifted from military might to economic statecraft.

Fishman is a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and an adjunct professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia. Previously, he served at the US State Department, leading work on economic sanctions. In his new book, he examines how governments—particularly the US’s—are increasingly using financial tools, regulatory measures, and targeted sanctions to shape international relations, secure strategic advantages, and resolve conflicts.

In his conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses the history of sanctions, how the US came to wield them so powerfully, how diplomatic back channels are navigated in applying them—and what is important for making them effective in enforcing the desired governance changes.

Key topics discussed: 

02:05 | The history of chokepoints and US dominance over them

08:45 | The role of businesses in economic diplomacy

12:17 | Navigating diplomatic back channels

15:32 | The role of technology and export controls

19:45 | Oil price caps as an innovation in sanctions design

23:10 | The effectiveness of sanctions in enforcing governance changes

27:44 | On the origins of this book

Additional inspirations from Edward Fishman:

• Foreign Affairs: How Trump Could Dethrone the Dollar (April 8, 2025)

In There's Nothing Like This: The Strategic Genius of Taylor Swift, Kevin Evers examines the singer-songwriter's remarkable career success from a business strategy perspective.

Evers is a senior editor at Harvard Business Review, where he has edited bestselling and award-winning books on high performance, creativity, innovation, digital disruption, marketing, and strategy.

In discussion with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, they cover the scale and longevity of Swift's success, the strategic moves and innovations that have driven her rise and staying power, her ability to reinvent herself and connect with fans in new ways, and lessons for strategists and companies.

In Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier, Matthew C. Weinzierl and Brendan Rosseau discuss the discuss the history, the present, and the future of the space economy.

Weinzierl is the Joseph and Jacqueline Elbling professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School and founder of the Economics of Space project at HBS. Rosseau is an Orbital Launch strategy manager at the American space technology company Blue Origin. Together, they provide in-depth academic and practitioner perspectives on the space economy.

In their conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, they discuss the central governance vs. market-driven models of the space economy, the geopolitics of space, and whether the first trillionaire will be an asteroid miner.

Key topics discussed: 

02:03 | The three phases of the space economy

05:28 | Central governance vs. market-driven model of the space economy

08:23 | Geopolitics of space

11:33 | The market structure of the space economy (on Earth)

17:14 | Space junk

21:03 | Asteroid mining

23:47 | How to make space interesting again

In The Corporation in the Twenty-First Century: Why (Almost) Everything We Are Told About Business Is Wrong, John Kay provides a novel perspective on the evolution of the contemporary corporation.

One of the UK’s leading economists, Kay is a fellow of St John’s College, Oxford. He was the first dean of Oxford’s Saïd Business School and has held chairs at London Business School, the University of Oxford, and the London School of Economics and director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Kay discusses the essence of the modern corporation, the changing relationship of capital and labour, the gap between the our historic concept of the corporation and the current reality and the forces that have and will further shape the corporation including sustainability, geopolitics, and technology.

Key topics discussed: 

01:56 | The essence of a 21st century corporation

05:53 | The changing roles of workers and capital

12:26 | Limits to corporate scale

16:00 | Forces that will shape the future of corporations sustainability, geopolitics, technology

21:50 | The impact of AI on the nature of the corporation

24:12 | Implications for managers

Additional inspirations from John Kay:

• Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers (W.W. Norton & Company, 2020)
• The Long and the Short of It: A guide to finance and investment for normally intelligent people who aren’t in the industry (IPS - Profile Books, 2016)
• Other People's Money: The Real Business of Finance (PublicAffairs, 2015)
• Obliquity: Why Our Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly (Profile Books GB, 2011)

In Uncertainty and Enterprise: Venturing Beyond the Known, Amar Bhidé revisits and modernizes the concept of Knightian uncertainty. Introduced more than 100 years ago, the concept offers great potential for better understanding corporate decision-making.

A renowned expert on innovation, entrepreneurship, and finance, Bhidé is a professor of Health Policy at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, as well as a professor emeritus of Business at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.

In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Bhidé discusses the important distinction between repeated and unique events, the relationship between uncertainty and imagination, how corporations can use persuasive narratives and social routes to navigate the future, and whether AI will help or hinder these practices.

Key topics discussed:

01:16 | The definition of uncertainty

04:49 | The relation between uncertainty and imagination

09:32 | The power of corporate routines

15:57 | The changing nature of uncertainty

17:25 | How AI impacts uncertainty

21:02 | Corporate implications

22:38 | Implications for business education

Additional inspirations from Amar Bhidé:

• A Call for Judgment: Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy (Oxford University Press, 2010)
• The Venturesome Economy: How Innovation Sustains Prosperity in a More Connected World (Princeton University Press, 2008)
• The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses (Oxford University Press, 2000)
• Flourishing in an Uncertain World: How Entrepreneurs Overcome Doubts and Disagreements (The Kansas City Public Library Lecture, 2025)

In The M&A Failure Trap: Why Most Mergers and Acquisitions Fail and How the Few Succeed, Baruch Lev and Feng Gu provide a wealth of evidence on the success and failure factors of acquisitions.

Lev, professor emeritus of Accounting and Finance at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Gu, professor of Accounting and Law at the State University of New York, have analyzed more than 40,000 acquisitions over the past four decades. This has not only allowed them to understand the reasons why 75% of deals fail but also to develop a scorecard that can help decision-makers assess the likelihood of acquisition success ex ante.

In their conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Lev and Gu discuss how to measure acquisition success, how to curb overconfidence on the side of the acquirer, and key lessons for CEOs seeking inorganic growth.

Key topics discussed:

[02:45] How mergers and acquisitions have changed

[05:00] Judging the success or failure of acquisitions

[08:16] Drivers of acquisition failure

[14:41] Patterns of successful acquisitions

[17:27] Overconfidence and its causes

[19:51] Managerial implications

In Mindmasters: The Data-Driven Science of Predicting and Changing Human Behavior, Sandra Matz explores what our digital footprints reveal about us and how these insights are used to influence our daily decisions.

Matz is the David W. Zalaznick Associate Professor of Business at Columbia Business School, where she also serves as co-director of the Center for Advanced Technology and Human Performance. Using her background in psychology and computer science, Matz investigates the intricate connections between our digital and real lives and how these are shaped by technology.

In her conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Matz discusses the power of psychological profiling, highlights the harms as well as benefits of the personalization it enables, and outlines implications for businesses and regulators, including the possibility of entirely new business models.

Key topics discussed: 

[01:10] Power of psychological profiling

[05:05] Scale and impact of big data–based psychological profiling

[09:06] Benefits and harms of personalization

[16:05] Challenges of regulating profiling and personalization

[17:57] Ramifications of the AI-driven content revolution

[23:20] Implications for businesses

[28:37] How to manage your data footprint

Additional inspirations from Sandra Matz: 

• Psychological Targeting: What Your Digital Footprints Reveal About You (TED Talk, 2019)

In The Unaccountability Machine: Why Big Systems Make Terrible Decisions and How the World Lost Its Mind, Dan Davies examines why companies and governments systematically generate outcomes that everyone involved claims they do not want.

Davies is an economist, writer, and former investment banker known for his insightful analysis of finance, corporate governance, and decision-making systems. He has written extensively on topics such as financial fraud, accountability in organizations, and the intersections of economics and management. His latest book combines cybernetics theory and real-world examples to explain how decisions are increasingly made not by accountable individuals, but by systems.

In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Davies describes the pathologies of failing decision-making systems, explains why we tend not to learn from past mistakes, and outlines why he worries that AI might not improve our capability to make decisions unless we carefully redesign decision systems to tap its potential.

Key topics discussed: 

01:03 | Unintended outcomes generated by decision-making systems

07:08 | What we can learn from the theory of cybernetics

09:49 | Pathologies of failing information systems

11:49 | Why we make the same mistakes again and again

14:41 | How AI may impact decision-making

16:39 | Steps toward improving our decision-making systems

Additional inspirations from Dan Davies:

• The Brompton: Engineering for Change, co-authored by William Butler-Adams (The Experiment, 2022)
• Lying for Money: How Legendary Frauds Reveal the Workings of the World (Scribner, 2021)
• Back of Mind (Substack)