Thinkers & Ideas

In Survive, Reset, Thrive: Leading Breakthrough Growth Strategy in Volatile Times, Rebecca Homkes guides leaders on how to turn uncertainty into opportunity.

Homkes teaches business strategy at the London Business School, is on the faculty of Duke Corporate Education, and consults major companies on strategy. She has developed a framework for leading through uncertainty based on three principles: setting up the firm for continuity through shocks (survive), making strategic choices for growth as the situation changes (reset), and ensuring implementation of the new business model (thrive).

Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Homkes discusses how to thrive under uncertainty and how her framework applies in the context of the AI revolution.

Key topics discussed: 

02:11 | How uncertainty affects strategy

03:40 | The survive, reset, thrive framework

05:20 | How to survive a shock

09:20 | How to reset for a new environment

14:42 | How to execute so you can thrive in the long term

19:12 | The creative vs. competitive aspects of strategy

24:11 | How algorithms and AI will affect strategy and the strategy process

27:49 | Applying this framework in your personal life

At the BCG Henderson Institute, we aim to bring forward-looking leaders the ideas and inspirations that will shape their next game. To honor this mission—and celebrate the 100th episode of our Thinkers & Ideas podcast—we welcomed three leading futurists to discuss the evolution of business and society.

Rita McGrath is a professor of management at Columbia Business School, and has been ranked among the top 10 management thinkers globally by Thinkers50 for years. Gary Shteyngart, a professor of writing at Columbia University is also a New York Times bestselling author of science fiction novels. Esther Dyson, founder of Wellville, is an investor, writer, and expert on all things tech, space, and health.

Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, they discuss their complementary perspectives on the future. They also divulge their methods for making predictions, providing valuable hints for how business leaders can use similar approaches to shape their perspectives and strategies.

Key topics discussed: 

02:06 | Revisiting past predictions about the future

05:08 | The digital age

08:16 | Social media and a technology-centred society

12:47 | Methods for sensing the future”

17:23 | Harnessing the power of science fiction

22:31 | Using metaphors

24:41 | Bringing together these future-sensing methods

31:07 | Predictions about what is coming next

Additional inspirations from Rita McGrath, Gary Shteyngart, and Esther Dyson:

• Seeing Around Corners: How to Spot Inflection Points in Business Before They Happen By Rita McGrath(Harper Business, 2019)
• Super Sad True Love Story: A Novel By Gary Shteyngart (Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2011)
• Release 2.0: A Design for Living in the Digital Age By Esther Dyson (Broadway, 1997)

In Look Again: The Power of Noticing What Was Always There, Cass Sunstein, together with his co-author Tali Sharot, discusses the importance of reevaluating the familiar to discover new insights.

Sunstein has long been at the forefront of behavioral economics. He is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School and served as the administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Obama administration. He has authored numerous best sellers, such as Nudge and The World According to Star Wars., In his new book, he explores the effects of habituation—ceasing to notice the familiar.

Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Sunstein discusses the perils of habituation and how to see the unseen. He also identifies ways that company leaders can strategically avoid habituation to ensure their organizations do not get stuck in mental models that limit adaptability to new trends and challenges.

Key topics discussed: 

01:09 | How habituation works

04:25 | What dishabituation is

08:18 | How to see the unseen

13:51 | How corporations should think about (dis-)habituation

22:08 | Breaking free from a mental model

24:21 | Personal strategies for dishabituation

Additional inspirations from Cass Sunstein:

• Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment; co-authored by Daniel Kahneman and Olivier Sibony (Little Brown Spark, 2021)
• The World According to Star Wars (Dey Street Books, 2016)
• Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness; co-authored by Richard Thaler (Penguin Books, 2009)

In Why We Die: The New Science of Ageing and the Quest for Immortality, Venki Ramakrishnan explores the current research on and prospects for human longevity.

Ramakrishnan leads a group at the MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology in Cambridge, England. For his research on the structure and function of ribosomes, he won the 2009 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. From 2015 to 2020, he served as president of the Royal Society. In his new book, Ramakrishnan explains the mechanisms of aging and their potential impacts on life expectancy, health span, and lifespan.

Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Ramakrishnan discusses the likely social, economic, and ethical implications of increasing longevity as well as the specific efforts researchers are making to prolong healthy life—and how close they are to achieving a breakthrough. He shines a light on a set of technologies which could be every bit as impactful as artificial intelligence, which therefore also deserve our attention.

Key topics discussed: 

02:28 | Life expectancy vs. health span vs. maximum lifespan

08:21 | Mechanisms of aging

13:25 | Potential interventions for promoting longevity

18:27 | How close are we to a longevity breakthrough?

24:02 | Societal and ethical implications

28:48 | The art of communicating complex idea

Additional inspirations from Venki Ramakrishnan:

• The Most Promising Ways to Stop Ageing (New Scientist Interview, 2024)
• The Story of Deciphering the Ribosome (The Royal Society Talk, 2020)
• Gene Machine: The Race to Decipher the Secrets of the Ribosome (Basic Books, 2018)

In Making Sense of Chaos: A better economics for a better world, J. Doyne Farmer challenges traditional economic models, which rely on simplistic assumptions and fail to provide accurate predictions.

Farmer, a complex systems scientist at the University of Oxford and the Santa Fe Institute, argues that with technological advances in data science and computing, we are now able to apply complex systems thinking to build models that more accurately capture reality and enable us to make better predictions about the economy.

Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Farmer discusses the limitations of standard models of economics as well as the consequences of such limitations. He proposes an alternative based on complex systems thinking and agent-based modeling—and describes how it can be applied in various fields, including business.

Key topics discussed: 

01:42 | Limitations of the standard model of economics

04:44 | How complex systems thinking works

09:01 | Consequences of using inadequate economic models

12:44 | Agent-based modeling as a powerful alternative

19:02 | Leveraging alternative modeling techniques in business

24:59 | How CEOs can start embracing complexity thinking

In Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI, Ethan Mollick explains how to engage with AI as a co-worker, a co-teacher, and a coach.

Mollick is a professor of management at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, where he studies and teaches innovation and entrepreneurship. In his new book, he discusses the profound impacts AI will have on business and education, using many examples of AI in action. His book challenges us to utilize AI’s enormous power without losing our human identity, to learn from it without being misled, and to harness its gifts to create a better human future.

Together with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Mollick discusses how to train people to use AI effectively, whether AI will substitute or complement workers, and how businesses can move beyond a short-term efficiency gains perspective to generate value with AI in the long term.

 Key topics discussed: 

02:27 | The four rules for living with AI

09:04 | Educating people to use AI effectively

10:47 | What experiments reveal about where AI adds (and destroys) value at work

12:45 | Substituting (vs. complementing) workers with AI

14:14 | Generating value with AI in the long-term

17:10 | Bringing about the social change in organizations alongside the tech change

20:48 | AI regulation

27:18 | How AI will transform education

Additional inspirations from Ethan Mollick:

• One Useful Thing (Substack)
• The Unicorn’s Shadow: Combating the Dangerous Myths That Hold Back Startups, Founders, and Investors (Wharton School Press, 2020)
• Changing the Game: How Video Games Are Transforming the Future of Business - Co-authored by David Edery (FT Press, 2008)

In The Intelligence of Intuition, Gerd Gigerenzer challenges a commonly held view of intuition—namely, that it is somehow inferior to logical rationality.

Gigerenzer is director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy at the University of Potsdam, director emeritus of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, and an expert on human decision-making. He argues that intuition is a form of unconscious intelligence shaped experience and evolution in dealing with uncertain and dynamic situations—situations for which logic and algorithms are often ill-fitted. As leaders deal with uncertainty and complexity and embrace new AI technologies, they must not forget the power of intuition.

Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Gigerenzer explores the power of intuition, when to use it in business, and how to cultivate and employ it.

Key topics discussed: 

01:23 | Difference between intuition and rationality

04:49 | Role of heuristics

06:29 | Why intuition is often looked down upon

08:06 | Power of intuition

15:21 | How to use intuition in business

18:45 | Distinguishing right intuition from wrong intuition

25:12 | Considering how AI use intuition

Additional inspirations from Gerd Gigerenzer:

• How to Stay Smart in a Smart World: Why Human Intelligence Still Beats Algorithms (The MIT Press, 2022)
• Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious (Penguin Books, 2008)
• Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You (Simon & Schuster, 2003)

In Climate Capitalism: Winning the Global Race to Zero Emissions, Akshat Rathi tells the stories of people around the world who are building impactful solutions to tackle climate change.

Rathi is a senior reporter for Bloomberg News, focusing on climate and energy. He also hosts the weekly Zero podcast, in which he talks to the people leading the fight for a zero-emissions future. In his new book, Rathi argues that the best way to cut carbon pollution is by harnessing capitalism. Combating climate change requires a combination of smart policies, financing, technological innovations, and leadership—without killing markets or competition.

Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Rathi discusses the essence of climate capitalism, how to scale up individual success stories, and how to navigate the challenging political context.

 Key topics discussed: 

02:09 | Definition of climate capitalism

07:19 | Success stories: Chinese EVs, Orsted

11:31 | The need to combine tech, policies, and finance

12:52 | How to scale case studies to big solutions

16:24 | Navigating a polarized political context

18:45 | Making climate solutions profitable

24:06 | Where CEOs should start

In Slow Down: The Degrowth Manifesto, Kohei Saito explores the relationship between capitalism and the climate crisis. He argues, controversially, that to have any chance of achieving true sustainability, we must move to a system which deemphasizes growth, adopts different metrics of progress, expands the commons, and places value on goods and services which are not currently considered as part of the economy, like caregiving and nature.

Saito is an associate professor of philosophy at the University of Tokyo and a recipient of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science prize, which is awarded to the top scholar in Japan under the age of 45. His book, published previously in Japan, became an unexpected bestseller, shipping more than half a million copies to date.

Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of BCG Henderson Institute, Saito discusses the arguments for fundamental economic system change, explores the feasibility of less radical alternatives, and assesses implications for business leaders. The book’s propositions will likely seem very radical to many of our business listeners—but as Saito notes, sometimes utopian ideas can be a stimulus for generating new thinking for complex intractable topics like climate change.

Key topics discussed: 

01:50 | Defining the problem and the need for system-level change

06:21 | The relation between capitalism and technological progress

08:41 | Exploring alternative, less radical solutions

13:32 | The need for a new measurement of economic and social progress

17:08 | The feasibility of a transition to a new system

21:41 | Implications for business leaders

25:35 | Reasons to remain hopeful

In Higher Ground: How Businesses Can Do the Right Thing in a Turbulent World, Alison Taylor explores how companies can navigate the complexity of modern business ethics.

Taylor, a clinical associate professor at NYU Stern, has spent decades advising large multinational companies on risk, corruption, sustainability, and organizational culture. In her new book, she combines her experience with vivid case studies to guide companies toward reaching what she describes as the “higher ground”—a space where companies can act ethically and achieve long-term strategic advantage.

Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of BCG Henderson Institute, Taylor discusses why good governance is now more important than ever, how leaders can navigate a polarized political landscape, and how businesses can build trust.

Key topics discussed: 

02:44 | The rising importance of internal governance

06:10 | Common traps of internal governance

07:55 | Best practices for deploying purpose

10:53 | Businesses taking political stances

14:58 | Importance of trust and traps in pursuing it

17:12 | Solutions for businesses to pursue

24:15 | How to apply these lessons in your own work