Expert opinions about future AI development span a wide range, from predictions that we will reach ASI soon and then humanity goes extinct, to predictions that AI progress will plateau soon, resulting in weaker AI that presents much more mundane risks and benefits. However, non-experts often encounter only a single narrative, depending on things like their social circles and social media feed.

In our paper, we propose a taxonomy that divides expert views on AIs into three main clusters. We hope to provide a concise and digestible way to explain the most common views and the crucial disagreements between them.

You can read the paper at: doctrines.ai. Here is a brief summary:

Dominance doctrine. The Dominance doctrine predicts that the first actor to develop sufficiently advanced AI will gain a decisive strategic advantage over all others. This is the natural consequence of two beliefs commonly held [...]

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.