Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news central bank bosses have been out warning of inflation and economic stress.

But first in the US, their Thanksgiving holiday has brought forward some key data releases. First up, the headline jobless claims numbers came in sharply lower than expected, indicating the American labour market isn't done yet showing its resilience. However we should note that the actual claim levels were higher than the seasonally adjusted levels even if not as high as was expected. There are now 1.65 mln people on these benefits, also quite a jump. But this is only back to September levels.

Second, mortgage applications rose marginally last week, but again only with the benefit of seasonal adjustment. Benchmark mortgage interest rates continued to move lower, now to 7.29% plus points, the lowest rate in two months. That is down -15 bps in just one week.

Also falling were new durable goods orders in October. After rising a good +4.0% in September, they fell a sharpish -5.4% on October so a net loss overall. Year-on-year they are only up +0.9%. Capital goods orders were up +1.6% however on that basis.

Going the other way, a current survey of year-ahead inflation expectations rose to a 7-month high of 4.5% in November, up from the preliminary estimate of 4.4% and above 4.2% in the prior month. That is according to a final reading of the University of Michigan survey. The last actual US CPI reading was at 3.2% in October and the November report is due on December 13 NZT.

In Canada, their central bank boss has signaled an end to rate hikes, saying "interest rates may now be restrictive enough to get us back to price stability".

But in Australia, their new central bank governor is singing a different tune. She is warning that the inflation challenge they face is increasingly homegrown and demand driven.

In China, one of their largest shadow banks warned it’s “severely insolvent,” with a debt pile more than two times higher than assets, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg. Liquidity has dried up and the recoverable amount from asset disposals is expected to be low, the company said. China's retail-dominated equity markets are vulnerable to fake news and rumour and authorities are on edge. It never helps when there are also major real stresses.

China isn't the only region of financial industry stress. In its Financial Stability Report, the ECB is warning that they too see "early signs of stress".

And from left-field, perhaps should note that the price of uranium is soaring again as global demand spikes for clean energy projects. We haven't seen these price levels since 2008. Thermal coal on the other hand is retreating.

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from yesterday, now at 4.43%. 

The price of gold will start today just on US$1990/oz and down -US$10/oz from this time yesterday.

Oil prices have fallen a sharpish -US$2.50 to be just under US$7/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at US$79.50/bbl. And this is happening after pricing in the OPEC+ production cut extensions expected to come in the weekend, although it now seems to have been delayed a day or so.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.7 USc and marginally firmer from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 69.6.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,389 and down -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been moderate however at just on +/- 2.6%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.