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Produced while being an affiliate at PIBBSS[1]. The work was done initially with funding from a Lightspeed Grant, and then continued while at PIBBSS. Work done in collaboration with @Paul Riechers, @Lucas Teixeira, @Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel, and Sarah Marzen. Paul was a MATS scholar during some portion of this work. Thanks to Paul, Lucas, Alexander, and @Guillaume Corlouer for suggestions on this writeup.
Introduction.What computational structure are we building into LLMs when we train them on next-token prediction? In this post we present evidence that this structure is given by the meta-dynamics of belief updating over hidden states of the data-generating process. We'll explain exactly what this means in the post. We are excited by these results because
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Outline:
(02:17) Theoretical Framework
(04:25) Do Transformers Learn a Model of the World?
(06:03) The Structure of Belief State Updating
(08:37) The Mixed-State Presentation
(12:34) Experiment and Results
(12:38) Experimental Design
(14:08) The Data-Generating Process and MSP
(16:26) The Results!
(18:06) Limitations and Next Steps
(18:10) Limitations
(20:35) Next Steps
The original text contained 10 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
Source:
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
By LessWrongProduced while being an affiliate at PIBBSS[1]. The work was done initially with funding from a Lightspeed Grant, and then continued while at PIBBSS. Work done in collaboration with @Paul Riechers, @Lucas Teixeira, @Alexander Gietelink Oldenziel, and Sarah Marzen. Paul was a MATS scholar during some portion of this work. Thanks to Paul, Lucas, Alexander, and @Guillaume Corlouer for suggestions on this writeup.
Introduction.What computational structure are we building into LLMs when we train them on next-token prediction? In this post we present evidence that this structure is given by the meta-dynamics of belief updating over hidden states of the data-generating process. We'll explain exactly what this means in the post. We are excited by these results because
---
Outline:
(02:17) Theoretical Framework
(04:25) Do Transformers Learn a Model of the World?
(06:03) The Structure of Belief State Updating
(08:37) The Mixed-State Presentation
(12:34) Experiment and Results
(12:38) Experimental Design
(14:08) The Data-Generating Process and MSP
(16:26) The Results!
(18:06) Limitations and Next Steps
(18:10) Limitations
(20:35) Next Steps
The original text contained 10 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
Source:
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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