Over the past several months the TTF market has been provided strong reminders of the lack of spare capacity in the event of a major supply shock. This has left a premium embedded in price to remain in place despite storage still at 99% full and structural demand loss still seemingly in place for industrial and residential/commercial demand. We believe this price premium is justified for now with so much time still left in the winter withdrawal season, but that price premium could start to fade as the market gets a better view of December weather and should that weather not appear. We think a further and perhaps more substantial slide in price could ensue if early indications of January weather were to also suggest milder than normal.
 
Speaker:
Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research
 
This podcast was recorded on November 10, 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4548305-0. For more information, please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

TTF price premium supported by weather uncertainty and the constant reminder of supply shocks

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J.P. Morgan hosted its annual Global Markets Conference in Paris on 15-17 May. Judging from the speaker comments and questions from the audience, participants at the conference appeared rather sanguine about the US and global economic outlook. In this podcast the Macro Research team discusses their key takeaways from the sessions and conversations with investors, which covered a range of topics including the prospects for US soft landing, potential divergence between the Fed and other central bank easing cycles, geopolitical risks and the market implications of the US elections. 
 
SpeakersLuis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research Jay Barry, Co-head of US Rates StrategyFabio Bassi, Head of International Rates StrategyMeera Chandan, Co-head of FX StrategyJonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
 
This podcast was recorded on 21 May 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4700544-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4704635-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4700508-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691814-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Key Macro Takeaways from J.P. Morgan’s Global Markets Conference in Paris

LME copper prices have surged nearly 30% year-to-date, jumping above $11,000/mt this morning with COMEX prices in the US still trading at a significant premium to the global LME benchmark. The massive widening of the COMEX/LME copper arb over the last week is more about positioning and inventory tightness in the US specifically and not reflective of a tight broader global refined copper market just yet. We remain structurally medium-term bullish on copper prices over the next two years as constrained mine supply is not going to alleviate quickly but current price levels are running well ahead of global refined market fundamentals at the moment. China’s refined market appears loose as demand is being deferred and delayed amid high copper prices while refined supply has stayed strong. A temporary correction in copper prices could be healthy to kick start Chinese demand and lay the groundwork for another eventual push even higher.
 
Speaker: Gregory Shearer
 
This podcast was recorded on 20 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4701703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. 
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Copper fireworks overshadow a looser-than-expected refined market in China

Arindam Sandilya, Ayako Fujita and Junya Tanase discuss the outlook for Japanese macro, BoJ policy and the Yen.
Speakers:Arindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyAyako Fujita, Economic and Policy Research Junya Tanase, Japan Markets Research
This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691315-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4702881-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global FX and Economics: Significant Yen weakness from domestic policy trade-offs is a future risk

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle
Speakers:Srini Ramaswamy, Managing Director and Co-Head of US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, Executive Director, U.S. Fixed Income Derivatives Research
This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2024. 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4694204-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates: The June-September Treasury futures roll

In lieu of our regular FX podcast, we present a joint webinar recorded earlier this week. Take a seat at the table as  Bruce Kasman, Ayako Fujita, Greg Fuzesi , Meera Chandan and Samantha Azzarello unpack potential policy divergence among global central banks, top macro themes and their impact on future policy rates and currencies.
 
SpeakersMeera Chandan, Global FX StrategyBruce Kasman, Global Head of Economic Research Ayako Fujita, Chief Japan EconomistGreg Fuzesi, Euro Area Economist  
Moderator: Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, Global Research
 
This podcast was recorded on May 9, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4695538-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

TTF price premium supported by weather uncertainty and the constant reminder of supply shocks

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