In this episode, we kick off our book project, "The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You", with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin’s frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions.

Main topics covered:

• Why base rates are the most underused yet powerful tool in investing and life

• How to apply expectations investing and reverse engineer stock prices

• Why multiples are not valuation and how to earn the right to use shortcuts

• Understanding the paradox of skill and why luck matters more when everyone is good

• Lessons investors can apply across fields like business, sports, and personal decision making

• How humility, reference classes, and feedback loops improve judgment

• Reflections on learning, writing, and how AI tools are changing the creative process

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the book
04:00 Michael Mauboussin on base rates and decision making
10:00 Expectations investing and reversing the valuation process
19:00 Multiples are not valuation—understanding shortcuts
28:00 The paradox of skill and why luck matters more than we think
38:00 How to apply these ideas in investing and life
45:00 Closing thoughts and audience feedback on the book project

In this special episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski take you on a deep-dive mixtape journey through the best moments from their past three years of conversations with author and investor Chris Mayer. From the brutal patience required to ride out dead money periods to why the lack of a catalyst might be a feature, not a bug—this episode is packed with timeless investing wisdom. Whether you're chasing a hundred bagger or trying to hold through volatility, Mayer’s philosophy will challenge and inspire you.

🔑 Topics Covered:

• Why “dead money” is often harder than drawdowns

• The real challenge of holding long-term winners

• The myth of catalysts and the power of compounding

• How great businesses reveal their edge over time

• The emotional toll of patience—and how to cultivate it

• Aligning capital with the right investor mindset

• What Buffett’s evolution teaches us about reinvestment risk

• Why most investors can’t handle uncertainty—and how that creates opportunity

• How great investors and great CEOs think in decades, not quarters

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 Intro + Episode Setup
02:07 Dead Money vs. Drawdowns
10:00 Waiting Without a Catalyst
18:15 The Real Test of Holding
25:00 Aligning with Long-Term Capital
35:00 Buffett and Value Investing 2.0
44:00 Management and Short-Term Thinking
50:00 The True Meaning of Patience
54:18 Outro + Closing Thoughts

In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig revisit one of the most popular interviews on Excess Returns—our deep-dive conversation with Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning. But instead of leaning into the usual doom-and-gloom narrative, they unpack the misunderstood lessons at the heart of Howe’s generational theory.

From inflation and leadership to passive investing and community, Matt and Dave explore the deeper patterns shaping our society and markets—and why so many people miss the bigger picture.

🎙️ Topics discussed include:

• Why the Fourth Turning is more about renewal than collapse

• The misunderstood role of inflation in crisis periods

• How generational memory loss fuels leadership failure

• Why passive investing might be the ultimate Millennial move

• Gen X’s emergence as a uniquely flawed (and necessary) leadership class

• How conflict can become the incubator for lasting community

This is not a forecast—it’s a framework. And it might just change how you see the world around you.

In this episode, we highlight the biggest lessons from our Excess Returns interview with renowned strategist Richard Bernstein. We explore the paradox of today’s markets: why they feel easy, and what hard truths may be hiding beneath the surface. From the risks of narrow market leadership to the role of structural flows and investor complacency, Richard shares practical lessons drawn from decades of market experience.

We discuss:

• Why narrow markets may signal greater risk than investors realize

• The danger of mistaking easy markets for safe ones

• How structural flows can prop up markets despite rising risks

• The behavioral traps investors fall into during seemingly easy times

• What history teaches us about mispricings and market resilience

Whether you’re focused on protecting capital or positioning for the next cycle, this conversation offers valuable insights into today’s market dynamics.

Some of the most insightful investment conversations start with a single question: “What do you believe that most of your peers disagree with?” In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive into 11 controversial investing takes—from QE and technical analysis to macro obsession and fee structures. You’ll hear nuanced perspectives from top investors who challenge conventional wisdom, and you might even find yourself rethinking your own beliefs.

🧠 This is a fast-paced, thought-provoking ride through the investment ideas most likely to start a debate at your next finance happy hour.

Topics Covered:

• Why QE may always be inflationary (Andy Constan)

• The case for separating advice fees from asset management fees (Rick Ferri)

• Why trimming and adding to positions might be a waste of time (Chris Mayer)

• A defense of free trade in a protectionist world (Jared Dillian)

• Why turnover isn't always a bad thing (Travis Prentice)

• Multidisciplinary investing vs. deep specialization (Cameron Dawson vs. Katie Stockton)

• When it’s OK to override your quant model (Joe Gubler)

• The trap of emulating famous investors (Rupert Mitchell)

• The entertainment vs. value tradeoff of macro (David Giroux)

• Rethinking shareholder primacy in today’s political landscape (Peter Atwater)

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro & Why QE is Inflationary (Andy Constan)
07:20 - Separate Fees for Advice & Management (Rick Ferri)
11:00 - No Trimming or Trading Around Positions (Chris Mayer)
15:30 - AI Will Be a Net Positive (Andrew Cohen)
19:00 - The Case for Free Trade (Jared Dillian)
23:30 - Turnover Isn't Always Bad (Travis Prentice)
27:00 - Multidisciplinary Investing (Cameron Dawson)
31:00 - Investing Solely on Technicals (Katie Stockton)
34:00 - Overriding the Quant Model (Joe Gubler)
41:00 - Don’t Try to Be the Next Buffett (Rupert Mitchell)
44:00 - Macro Doesn’t Always Add Value (David Giroux)
48:00 - Shareholders Don’t Come First Anymore (Peter Atwater)

In this special episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Bogumil Baranowski to reflect on one of the most emotional and historic moments in financial history: Warren Buffett’s surprise announcement at the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. With commentary from voices who were in the room—and some who weren’t—we explore what it felt like, what it meant, and what comes next for Berkshire and Buffett’s legacy. Featuring clips from John Candeto, Adam Mead, Eric Markowitz, and Ted Merz, this is both a tribute and a thoughtful discussion on culture, succession, and enduring business values.

Topics Covered:

The emotional weight and historic nature of Buffett’s resignation

Firsthand reactions from inside the room at the Berkshire meeting

Why Buffett’s delivery was masterful—and why it mattered

Reflections on the unique culture of Berkshire and its shareholder community

The Buffett “shield” and what it means for Greg Abel and Berkshire's future

Why more companies don’t emulate the Berkshire approach

The role of tradition in building enduring businesses

Personal stories of shareholders whose lives were changed by long-term compounding

In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the profound impact of passive investing with one of the most provocative thinkers in the space—Mike Green. Mike has developed a framework that challenges traditional market assumptions, shedding light on how seemingly "passive" investment flows might be actively reshaping markets, valuations, and even systemic stability. Using clips from our interviews, Mike breaks down complex ideas with clarity, humor, and critical insight. This is a must-watch for anyone who wants to understand the hidden mechanics behind modern markets—and what they mean for your portfolio.

Topics Covered:

Why passive investors aren't truly passiveThe systemic risk behind the growth of index investingHow passive flows distort price discovery and market behavior

The QDIA effect and its unintended consequences

The breakdown of correlation between value and growth stocks

Why international markets continue to underperform

Mike's thoughts on unemployment data and the gig economy

The real lesson investors should take from all this

What individual investors can realistically do about it

In this episode, we dive deep into the fundamentals of retirement planning with one of the most respected researchers in the field—Wade Pfau. Wade is known for blending rigorous academic research with real-world financial advice. We explore his groundbreaking ideas on the 4% rule, sequence of returns risk, annuities, income frameworks, and his innovative Retirement Income Style Awareness (RISA) model. Whether you’re planning for retirement or advising others, this episode delivers valuable frameworks and perspectives you can apply immediately.

**Topics Covered:**

* Why the 4% rule is a U.S. artifact—and where it doesn’t work* The importance of sequence risk and how early retirement returns dominate long-term outcomes* Wade’s “Four Ls” of retirement planning: Lifestyle, Longevity, Liquidity, and Legacy* The limitations of fixed withdrawal strategies and the value of variable withdrawal rules* The misunderstood role of annuities and why risk pooling matters* How RISA helps investors match their personality and preferences to the right retirement strategy* The power of flexibility and focusing on what really matters in retirement

In this episode, we dive deep into some of the most thought-provoking ideas from two of the most original minds in investing: Ben Hunt and Grant Williams. Through a curated selection of powerful clips, we explore how markets have transformed from mechanisms of capital allocation to platforms of narrative and speculation. Ben and Grant challenge conventional wisdom, question the stories we tell ourselves about investing, and propose frameworks for navigating a radically different market landscape going forward. Whether it's the evolution of CEO incentives, the lifecycle of narratives, or why staying rich is harder than getting rich, this episode is packed with timeless insights.

Topics Covered:

Why what worked for 40 years may not work anymore

The market as a political utility and what that really means

The disconnection between stock prices and real businesses

How narratives shape market behavior and prices

The language of growth vs. value in investingThe CEO’s evolving role as a storytellerUsing the narrative lifecycle as an investment framework

Speculation vs. investing and how to tell the difference

How Ben Hunt applies the minimax regret framework to life decisions

In this episode, Jack and Matt revisit one of the most debated topics in investing: the fate of the classic 60/40 portfolio. Drawing on insights from some of the smartest minds in finance—Bob Elliott, Adam Butler, Warren Pies, Rick Ferri, Jared Dillian, Andrew Beer, and Cliff Asness—they explore whether the traditional stock/bond mix still makes sense in today's environment or if investors need to rethink diversification, risk, and portfolio construction entirely. With perspectives ranging from strong defenses of simplicity to sophisticated alternative strategies, this episode is a deep dive into what investors should consider in building resilient portfolios going forward.

Topics Covered:

Why the 60/40 portfolio worked—and why it might not anymore

The impact of inflation, liquidity, and regime change on asset allocation

Risk parity and quadrant-based frameworks for understanding market environments

The argument for real assets: real estate and commodities

An overview of the Awesome Portfolio and its performance profile

The rise of managed futures and how they improve diversification

The psychology of investing in alternatives (and sticking with them)

Rebalancing and the importance of sizing when adding alternatives

Cliff Asness on high-volatility alternatives and long-term risk-taking

How to think through alternatives as your portfolio grows