Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news financial markets are sensing a turn lower in the giant US economy and a risk-off tone is spreading. Impending new tariff announcements there are casting a pall over everything.

First, despite another fall in long term mortgage interest rates, US mortgage applications were weak last week. They fell by -2% in the week following a -6.2% drop in the previous week. Applications to refinance a home loan decreased -5% to the lowest level in a month. But applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home rose +1%.

New American durable goods orders in February unexpectedly rose +0.9% from January, following an upwardly revised +3.3% jump that prior month. This February result was much better that the anticipated -1% fall. But year-on-year the gain was just +0.5% and the result was largely ignored by financial markets, partly because it isn't expected to signal any longer improvement. On-off defence aircraft orders (+9.3%) accounted for most of the gains. Non-defence, non-aircraft orders for capital goods were -1.2% lower in February than a year ago. Markets noticed that.

They probably also noticed the latest update of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking showing a current estimate of Q1-2025 economic activity shrinking at a -1.8% rate. This updated real-time estimate is unchanged from last week. It is also worth noting that the benchmark "Blue Chip Consensus" forecasts are starting to waver now too as the quarter comes to an end.

Across the Pacific, Singapore's industrial production took quite a tumble in February from January, enough to turn its year-on-year change from a +8% rise in January into a -1.3% decline in February. The month-on-month reversal was a very sharp -7.5%.

In Europe, the UK said their inflation rate dipped to 2.8% in February from 3.0% in January, marginally below market expectations of 2.9%, though in line with the Bank of England's forecast.

In the EU, facing security threats from Russia, and a US 'ally' that is pulling back and effectively encouraging Moscow, is saying every citizen should stockpile enough food to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours in case of crisis. Most EU states are sharply raising defence preparedness.

Australia is in its post-budget debate period. No announcement yet on an election date but it is widely expected over the next few days.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time. 

Wall Street has started its Wednesday session and dipping further by -1.2% on the S&P500 on a tech sell-off. The Nasdaq is down -2.1%. 

The price of gold will start today at just on US$3016/oz and down a net -US$10 from yesterday.

Oil prices are up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just und US$70/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$74/bbl. The new American tariff threats on using Venezuelan oil are disrupting supply.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are back up +10 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just over 53.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67, and up +20 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,866 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.1%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.