Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of mixed and confusing economic signals from the world's largest economy where scoring own-goals is becoming an embedded feature of their economic management.

But first, there was an overnight Pulse dairy auction for both SMP and WMP and that delivered lower prices with the SMP price dropping -2.0% from the prior week's full dairy auction, and the WMP price down -1.1%

In the US, financial markets are quite hesitant because Trump is attempting to fire a non-loyal Fed governor for made-up 'integrity' reasons (pot-kettle-black). Because she in Black, and a woman, Trump's vengeance is particularly pointed.in this case and contrasts starkly with how he treats Powell (which is also personal and isn't good either.) She hasn't been charged with anything let alone convicted, and legal action over the Presidential 'letter' will now follow. She is resisting the bullying. The USD slipped and long dated UST bonds posted losses as market unease spread.

Overnight releases of American economic data was quite mixed. First, durable goods orders fell in July from June, down -2.8% and on top of the -9.4% fall in the June result. That takes the year-on-year July result to just a +3.5% rise, about what current inflation can account for. Non-defense, non-aircraft capital goods orders rose a little more than that, up +4.5% from a year ago, so that was positive. But they fell -8.0% in July from June.

The Richmond Fed factory survey in the mid-Atlantic states remained negative in August, although not as much as the outsized July retreat. Factories in this region have been doing it tough since March 2025. Cost inflation is hitting them hard as a result of having to pay the tariff taxes. The average growth rate of prices paid increased notably, while growth in prices received was nearly unchanged in August.

Yesterday we noted the negative Dallas Fed factory survey for Texas. Today the services survey for the same region was released and it reported a better expansion. But they reported the improvement as 'slight'.

There was also only a slight change in consumer sentiment reported by the Conference Board for August. Rising worries about jobs and income were offset by more optimistic views of current and future business conditions, they said. Overall, consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months. Tariff-taxes are a key reason there is no improvement in this survey. Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations picked up after three consecutive months of easing and reached 6.2% in August, up from 5.7% in July.

Once rare seven-year car loans are fast becoming the norm in the US. They’re often the only way buyers can afford new vehicles, with the average vehicle sale prices surging +28% in five years to approach NZ$85,000. And tariffs will make than much worse. Bloomberg is reporting that in Q2-2025, seven-year vehicle loans represented 21% of all new-vehicle financing. Six-year loans, at one time considered the upper end of the range, are now the most common, accounting for 36%. Some buyers are even now going for eight-year loans.

There was a large and well supported two year US Treasury bond auction overnight, resulting in a median yield of 3.60%, down from 3.87% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.

North of the border, Canada released some business activity data for July, and both metrics rose and by more than expected. Their wholesale trade was up +1.3% from +0.7% in June, driven by stronger vehicle sales. They manufacturing sales rose +1.8% in July, an improvement from +0.3% in June. Transportation equipment, and the energy sector, provided the key boosts.

Across the Pacific in South Korea, you may recall the huge jump in consumer sentiment in July after the peaceful resolution of the attempted executive coup there earlier in the year. The rule of law won. In August, that confidence level dropped sharply as things returned to normal. But to be fair is is still far higher than at any time in the past ten years - despite their ugly treatment by the Trump Administration.

In Australia, Australia Post has temporarily partially suspended postal services to the US. All such deliveries now require full customs duties and declarations making the trade impractical for small value items and substantial jeopardy for the shipper. The disruption to such courier services is spreading to most Asian countries now.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. 

The price of gold will start today at US$3,381/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.

American oil prices have fallen -US$1.50 to US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$67.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.6 USc and little-changed from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.3, and also little-changed from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,747 and down another -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.