Mexico, the United States, and Canada are hosting the 2026 World Cup, and it isn’t clear whether that or the ongoing negotiations over the USMCA free trade agreement is higher stakes for North America. The July 1 deadline for the three North American countries will shape the future of nearly 2 trillion in trade and determine whether the countries renew the agreement for another 16 years or let the clock run down towards expiration in 2036. The stakes are real and the story is more complex than it has ever been with a trade deal.

In this episode, Diego Marroquín Bitar sits down with William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl Chair emeritus with the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business. Together, they unpack the dynamics of the review, and the different negotiation strategies employed by the three countries. They also evaluate some of the most likely scenarios for the review, ranging from the potential risk of withdrawal to a surprise agreement that emerges in the fall of 2026.