Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Trump (and Vance) are attempting to roll-back their aggression in the face of ugly financial market reactions and firm Chinese pushbacks. That cheered Wall Street and American investors, but others are watching the risks mount and have pushed precious metals prices up sharply.

Meanwhile, China said their exports rose +8.3% in September from a year ago. This is faster expansion that the +4.4% August growth, and took the monthly level to US$329 bln the most in seven months. And this was despite a -27% slump in exports to the US. The exports grew modestly to Japan and Korea, but to some key markets they rose more than +10%, like to Taiwan (+11%), ASEAN countries (+14%), the EU (+14%), and Australia (+11%). They raised their exports to New Zealand by more than +17% - and bought +2.6% more from us. It is a pretty impressive performance, it has to be said.

Of course, we don't have any American data to compare it with, the their last data for August showed their exports fell -1.4% from a year ago. American disengagement is a unique opportunity for China who so far are a net winner.

And it may get worse for the US. Their farm products are being substituted by other markets (Australia is a winner), and China's rare-earth export restrictions will put a growing share of American technology in a tough spot. Of course, it may also drive innovation to other components but so far there is little evidence of that happening at the scale needed. American companies seem to just be waiting for another TACO moment.

It is not all good in China. A new survey of local economists points out a clear slowing.

In India, their CPI inflation fell to 1.5% in September, down from 2.1% in August and below the expected 1.7%. This is their lowest inflation rate since June 2017. It is also below their central bank's 2% lower tolerance limit under its inflation-targeting framework. Leading the rate lower were food prices that fell -2.3%, the largest decline since a record -2.7% fall in December 2018.

This year’s Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to three economists (Israeli, French, Canadian) whose investigations showed that sustained economic growth does in fact come from innovation and 'creative destruction'.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. 

The price of gold will start today at US$4110/oz, up +US$94 from yesterday. (Silver is now just under US$52/oz, up proportionately more, but that may have more to do with a short squeeze in the London market.)

American oil prices are up +50 USc at just on US$59.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$63.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at just under 57.4 USc, up a bit more than +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.9, up +10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,683 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.