Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news equity markets have cancelled yesterday's relief rally.

But first in the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 215,000, +7.7% higher than the week before, but identical to the same week a year ago. There are now just under 2 mln people on these benefits, up slightly from the 1.93 mln a year ago.

US CPI inflation fell to 2.4% in March, its lowest level since February 2021. Because this was data taken before the tariff chaos, it seems this may be the low point for the foreseeable future. Food was up +3.0% and rents were up +4.0%. Medical care was up +3.0%. However petrol prices restrained the overall rises, down -9.8%. Very low oil prices will keep a lid on the total even if other living costs rise much faster.

Today's UST 30 yr bond auction was well supported, but the median yield came in at 4.73%, up from 4.56% at the equivalent event a month ago.

The US government reported a budget deficit of -US$161 bln in March, a -32% decrease from the previous year, largely due to a calendar shift in benefit payments. Despite this monthly decline, the broader fiscal picture remains concerning, with the US Treasury reporting a -US$1.3 tln deficit for the first half of fiscal 2025, a +23% rise from the previous year. This marks the second highest deficit for the first six months of any fiscal year, trailing only the -US$1.7 tln gap in fiscal 2021. Tax cuts for the rich in this environment looks exceedingly irresponsible, especially if the tax rises on consumers via tariffs don't raise the outlandish sums forecasted.

Just how damaged the US government agencies have become, Musk's DOGE fired all the safety regulators that oversaw Tesla.

The April USDA WASDE report out overnight shows that US corn inventories are lower than expected. Beef exports are expected to fall on retaliatory tariff actions against the US and beef imports are expected to be lower too for the same tariff reason. The net result seen in lower prices for US producers. Lower prices for US milk producers too as exports shrink. US farmers will be net losers from the tariff hostilities.

Across the Pacific, Japanese producer inflation is rising, now its highest since mid-2023. Producer prices there rose +4.2% in March from the same month a year ago, above market estimates of 3.9%. It was their 49th straight month of producer inflation, with cost rising further for most components.

Taiwanese exports surged again in March, up +18.6% from a year ago and a record high for any month. A +8.5% rise was expected. That is two consecutive months of outsized expansion. April tariff actions may well affect this impressive result going forward, but if US customers have no alternative sources, the tariff taxes will fall on the buyer.

In China, they not only have to fight off the US tariff policies, they have a resurgence of domestic deflation issues. Their March CPI fell -0.1% when a +0.1% was anticipated. Their PPI fell -2.5% when a -2.3% retreat was anticipated. On the consumer price front, food prices are -0.6% lower than a year ago, of which beef prices fell -10.8% and lamb -5.4%. Milk prices fell -1.7% on the same basis. They want to shift to a consumer-based society, but in the meantime their existing export sector is going to take major hits which will affect consumption, and there seems little upside to consumer demand in the current circumstances. Their "over-capacity" is going to expose them. You wonder if they have any more appetite for capitalism's "creative destruction" than Western economies, who have proven to have virtually none.

And staying in China, Beijing's drive to turn its economy into a consumption-led one relies of Chinese consumers spending and buying. But the evidence is that they are as spooked by the trade war as anyone and have turned consumption-shy.

In March Australian inflation expectations fell to 3.6%, a four year low. But in April they jumped back up to 4.2% underscoring the ongoing uncertainty surrounding their domestic economic outlook and inflation trajectory in the face of fallout from the tariff war. Given they have both a jobs, and an inflation mandate, the RBA is in for a tricky period ahead with its policy choices.

Container freight rates rose +3% in the past week to be -23% lower than a year ago. Basically trans-Pacific rates firmed slightly while trans-Atlantic rates eased. Bulk freight rates fell a very sharp -21% in the past week to be -20% lower than year ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.40%, unchanged from this time yesterday.

Wall Street is currently down -3.4% on the S&P500 in its Thursday trade as the tariff-pause relief rally runs out of puff in the face of realities and reverses. 

The price of gold will start today at just on US$3162/oz, and up another +US$92 from yesterday.

Oil prices have fallen -US$2 from yesterday to be just under US$60/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$63/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc, up +120 bps from yesterday at this time and a three week high. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 66.5 and up +70 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,207 and falling, and down -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.