War in Space

How does space power fit into German defence thinking, and has this changed since German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a ‘Zeitenwende’ in 2022?

When Chancellor Scholz addressed the nation shortly after the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a fundamental reconfiguring of Germany’s defence policy and budget was promised. The word Zeitenwende (‘turning point’) usually refers to the shift from one era to another, but two years on from his speech, much remains business-as-usual.

Joining us to discuss German defence in the space domain is Antje Nötzold, Assistant Professor at Chemnitz University of Technology and Associate Fellow at the Centre for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies at the University of Bonn. We analyse the country's sovereign capabilities and ambitions for space power.

We hear about the dangers of space debris all the time – the high velocities with which discarded or disused manmade objects travel around the Earth and the threat that high-speed impacts, even of small debris pieces, pose to satellites.

Technologies are currently being developed to mitigate this, including by the company Astroscale. Alex Godfrey, Business Development Manager at Astroscale, talks to us about the technical challenges of debris mitigation, as well as future missions and trends. We also discuss the inherent dual-use nature of these technologies and how debris mitigation can be used for nefarious purposes. The question is whether space security and future sustainability measures are doomed to always be at odds – can we keep space free of debris and sleep soundly at night, knowing that robotic arms are orbiting our satellites?

There is no pan-European approach to space. Instead, there is a diverse set of European actors, agencies and infrastructures that are making a mark on the final frontier.

Who exactly is involved in the various European space endeavours and what are their projects? Are the constellations of Copernicus and Galileo the limit of ambition or will we see further projects and a tie into NATO? Mathieu Bataille, Research Fellow and Lead on Security and Defence at the European Space Policy Institute, joins us to discuss these questions and more.

Keeping track of satellites requires space situational awareness (SSA). But how does one acquire this information, and how subjective is the data that we receive?

Sean Goldsborough, Business Leader at Raytheon NORSS, talks to us about the art of satellite tracking.

We discuss the difference between SSA and space domain awareness (there is a distinction!), how the technology underlies military applications, and how the data available could potentially be used for nefarious purposes – for example, by disguising the real nature of objects in space.

Space launches in 2024 are routine events – new satellites enter orbit on a weekly basis, and the industry is changing fast.

In this episode, we examine the increasing commercialisation of space and its implications, including how access to (relatively inexpensive) launch facilities has changed the satellite market, and how states and commercial companies are now working together to meet new demands. Dr Michelle Parker, Vice President, Space Mission Systems at Boeing Defense, Space & Security, joins us to discuss a legacy business that has adapted to new trends, and to survey the landscape of up-and-coming space technologies.

After three years of setting up and running UK Space Command, Air Vice Marshal Paul Godfrey joins us to discuss the lessons learned and explains why setting up the Command felt a bit like running a start-up. The discussion covers the road to integration, partnerships and why training with terrestrial alternatives to space services is important for the whole of the armed forces. Lastly, we discuss space's PR problem and how this could be solved in the future. Be part of the solution – listen in to find out more!

Does a state's power on Earth translates into influence in orbit – and vice versa? Dr Jana Robinson, Managing Director of the Prague Security Studies Institute, presents her research on what she calls the ‘ground-based space race’, where authoritarian states fund parts of the space economy in third countries to gain influence and shape their voting decisions. This is especially important as norms and values are still being discussed within the UN. We discuss these economic and financial threats and how they further shape values and norms in space. Finally, we talk about the soft power element of space: what does the future for international space cooperation hold given that the International Space Stationis being decommissioned after 2030?

Multilateral efforts to prevent an arms race in outer space have been going on for decades. The most recent efforts include a UN resolution that intended to solve existing gridlocks by getting states to discuss what responsible behaviours in space look like. The problem of dual use – using space assets for military purposes or as a weapon – will continue to make verification of the nature of assets difficult. However, responsible behaviours that promote transparency on how these assets are used can help reduce the risk of miscalculation in space. The UN resolution on responsible behaviours was put forward by the UK in 2020 and discussed in the forum of Open-Ended Working Groups (OEWG) until 2023. Dr Jessica West, Senior Researcher at the Canadian peace research institute Project Ploughshares, shares observations from the discussions at the OEWG and her assessment of what future efforts might look like. Tune in to find out why UN diplomats are the unsung heroes of peace and security, and what Geneva's food prices have to do with it all!

There is a persistent perception that space is a lawless place. Professor Steven Freeland, Emeritus Professor of International Law at Western Sydney University and Professorial Fellow at Bond University, joins us to explain why that is not the case. We discuss the current multilateral rules that govern orbits, as well as where additions may come in in the future, why they might be necessary and what obstacles are currently preventing us from reaching multilateral consensus. As well as this, we talk about the involvement of commercial actors in space and what benefit national space laws bring.

Orbits are getting busier, frequencies are taken up, collisions are becoming likelier and the resulting space debris is endangering satellites ... are we really running out of space in space?

John Janka, Chief Officer, Global Government Affairs and Regulatory at Viasat, discusses with us the various factors that make up space sustainability, including frequencies, physical space and effects on the atmosphere. We discuss what measures can be taken to avoid an overcrowding of the orbits and how methods such as fragmentation analysis can help predict the impact of a potential collision.