Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news gold is soaring on US missteps, and oil is falling as demand falters while supply is rising fast.

Overnight US data was mixed. August pending home sales came in a little better than expected, up +4.0% from July, but only up +3.8% from year ago levels which themselves were relatively stunted. Less than 20% of American realtors expect the next three months to improve.

But the Dallas Fed factory survey reported a sharpish turn lower, a second consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. But they still have growth, just far less. New orders dipped again. Costs continue to rise faster than selling prices.

The chances of a US federal government shutdown are rising with compromise no longer in anyone's vocabulary. Trump thinks no-one will blame him for his intransigence.

And apparently, the next US tariff target is movie production - something both Australian and New Zealand creative industries will look at with trepidation.

Singapore reported their producer prices rose. They grew by +1.1% in August from a year ago, after a -2.4% drop in the previous month. And this was their first producer price inflation since March 2025.

Later today, China will release its August PMI data, the key releases before their Golden Week holiday break that starts tomorrow.

In India, industrial production rose +4.0% in August from a year ago, slowing slightly from the upwardly revised 4.3% growth rate in July, but less than the expected +5% increase. Still, the result continued a reasonable first half of the year, showing that initial tariffs by the Americans did not have a significant immediate impact on their industrial activity.

But today's big news will be the RBA's upcoming rate review. Analysts expect no change at 3.6%. Financial markets are of the same view with nothing priced in to secondary market wholesale rates. But the RBA will be weighing the impact of relatively strong labour markets, good economic growth, low budget deficits and a strong fiscal impulse, along with rising CPI inflation touching 3.0% in August. Waiting could leave them with a harder-to-control inflation problem, although to be fair, no-one expects a rise today even if many think it would be warranted and wise.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, down -5 bps from yesterday.

The price of gold will start today at US$3830/oz, up +US$72 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver had yet another big spurt, now almost at US$47/oz. This latest surge puts the US gold stockpile at Fort Knox and the NY Fed now worth more than US$1 tln.

American oil prices are down a sharpish -US$2 at just over US$63/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$67.50/bbl. With global demand wavering, the planned OPEC increase, plus the resumption of Iraqi oil from their Kurdistan region has traders talking about a glut.

The Kiwi dollar is at just over 57.8 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -25 bps at 87.9 AUc and that is the lowest in three years. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, down -10 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,795 and up +3.2% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at under +/- 1.8%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.