Predicting the future is hard, so it's no surprise that we occasionally miss important developments.

However, several times recently, in the contexts of Covid forecasting and AI progress, I noticed that I missed some crucial feature of a development I was interested in getting right, and it felt to me like I could’ve seen it coming if only I had tried a little harder. (Some others probably did better, but I could imagine that I wasn't the only one who got things wrong.)

Maybe this is hindsight bias, but if there's something to it, I want to distill the nature of the mistake.

First, here are the examples that prompted me to take notice:

Predicting the course of the Covid pandemic:

• I didn’t foresee the contribution from sociological factors (e.g., “people not wanting to get hospitalized” – Zvi called it “the control system”).
  • As a result, I overpredicted [...]

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.