Our community is not prepared for an AI crash. We're good at tracking new capability developments, but not as much the company financials. Currently, both OpenAI and Anthropic are losing $5 billion+ a year, while under threat of losing users to cheap LLMs.

A crash will weaken the labs. Funding-deprived and distracted, execs struggle to counter coordinated efforts to restrict their reckless actions. Journalists turn on tech darlings. Optimism makes way for mass outrage, for all the wasted money and reckless harms.

You may not think a crash is likely. But if it happens, we can turn the tide.

Preparing for a crash is our best bet.[1] But our community is poorly positioned to respond. Core people positioned themselves inside institutions – to advise on how to maybe make AI 'safe', under the assumption that models rapidly become generally useful.

After a crash, this no longer works, for at [...]

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First published:
April 1st, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aMYFHnCkY4nKDEqfK/we-re-not-prepared-for-an-ai-market-crash

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.