The 1839 Treaty on Belgian neutrality was a mere scrap of paper - that was the phrase which doomed Bethmann Hollweg, and Germany, to moral condemnation. It was the excuse which conquerors of all shapes and sizes had trotted out, when what they really meant was might makes right. Britain and the allies subsequently made great capital out of this faux pas, but this had led to some important questions - foremost among them being, did the German Chancellor actually say it?

In this episode, we journey to Berlin in the final hours of peace, when Edward Goschen, the British ambassador, delivers his master's seismic telegrams, warning of the imminent rupture between the two countries if Belgium was not left alone. It was an impossible request for Germany, then locked into the Schlieffen Plan, but the language used could at least cushion the blow. Unfortunately, Bethmann reverted to the most offensive posture, discounting Belgian sovereignty and effectively challenging Britain to respond. Goschen was on hand to record these interviews, but can his record be trusted, or was he just one of the latest propagandists to emerge from the British side?

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No matter what Britain did, it was impossible for Germany to evacuate Belgium. War was inevitable. Why, then, did most of Britain not even realise it?

The straightforward image we have in our minds of Britain taking a stand against the flagrant violation of Belgium is, in fact, a somewhat airbrushed picture. We may be surprised to learn that the British warnings to Germany failed to mention war, but this was less due to any cold feet, and more from a naïve hope that Germany would declare war on Britain. It may have been hard to imagine, but had Berlin not repeatedly shot itself in the foot diplomatically by this point? Why should she be expected to show some foresight now?

In fact, Germany was preparing the diplomatic ground with its few remaining allies, so British diplomats followed her there, to the Ottoman Empire, to warn against mobilisation. Lies remained a critical currency, as Austria and the Turks maintained an air of innocence. British agents reported from Japan, from the United States, from Italy, and elsewhere, building a picture of a world at war, eagerly awaiting Britain's entry into the lists. How could Britons fail to notice what was happening? The government, however incredible it might sound, was waiting for war, even if the midnight deadline hung like a dark cloud over the world. 

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Germany's invasion of Belgium had finally begun. After several anxious days of negotiations, warnings, and second guessing, Berlin was firmly set on its path. But what path was that? War had been declared on Russia and France, and now Belgium was in their warpath, but was their any wider strategy than that devised by Moltke? Indeed, diplomacy continued despite the shattered peace, and Berlin chased after two allies in particular - the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria.

In each case they would be successful, but what did it say about German policy that its own ally, Italy, had abandoned her? Condemnations could be lobbed at her from Berlin, but if its own ally wasn't believing the propaganda, that certainly suggested problems were on the horizon for Germany's PR machine. Perhaps that did not matter. If Belgium folded, France was next. But Belgium did not fold. She held out far longer and with far more tenacity than Moltke had expected. It was just one sign among many that the vaunted Schlieffen Plan was unlikely to go off without a hitch, and many more such signs were to come...

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In the evening of 3 August, Germany finally declared war on France. The war, Berlin insisted, was caused by hostile French acts, but most knew better. The Italians certainly did. In a series of painful communications between Berlin, Vienna, and Rome, Italian neutrality was crystallised. Austria could not give her the concessions she required, and the Italian people would fly to revolt rather than fight for the hated Habsburgs. But the Austrians had at least begun to reckon with the consequences of their actions - they accepted the German argument, that the war with Serbia would have to take a back seat to the showdown with Russia.

But the news was not all bad. The Ottoman Empire was moments away from finalising its commitment to the Central Powers, and Bulgaria was also amenable to the idea. Through this unlikely coalition, Germany prepared to take on the rest of the world. In London the signs were clear - Germany was planning something at Constantinople, and there was no time to lose. And yet, everyone had already lost. The failure of diplomacy is surely etched into our minds by now, but it does no harm to stress that what happened in the July Crisis was something much more, and much worse, than this.

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Finally, Sir Edward Grey was ready to make his case to the House of Commons. Parliament had been starved of news for a week, and the press had done their best to fill in the gaps, but the whole country was desperate for an update. What would the government do if the rumours were true, and Germany had invaded France? Was neutrality on the table? And what of Belgium, who was protected by a treaty? How would Grey rally the House to his side, and did it even matter if he could not, since the Cabinet had already been convinced of the need to act thanks to various pressures?

Grey was tasked with answering many of these questions, but there were many that he did not answer, and a surprising amount that he did not say. In this episode we give Grey's speech in the Commons - and the subsequent reactions - their proper attention. In a day suffused with monumental, watershed moments, not limited to Germany's declaration of war on France, Grey's speech represented the public culmination of a struggle which had gone on in private for several weeks. His seventy minute speech set the tone for what was to come, and effectively spelled out that Britain was bound to transform this European war into a world war.

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The German ultimatum to Belgium had roused the Brussels government and rallied the nation, but other than this, much was still unclear by the early afternoon of this Bank Holiday Monday. News of Belgium's determination to resist took a surprisingly long time to arrive, but more than that, how long was Germany willing to wait? Had she already begun her invasion of Belgium? Was she already at war with France? Doubts reigned supreme over what would happen next, but one man in particular was in dire need of clarity.

British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey was due to give his speech to the House of Commons imminently, but before he could, there was a lot of housekeeping to work through, to ensure that his transformative speech occurred in the best possible circumstances. At the very least, the Cabinet was no longer murmuring about a division, and those who decided to resign kept their choice quiet for now. Much would depend on the next few hours of this eventful day, but as had been the case so often by now, Berlin did much of Grey's work for him.

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The German army was firmly in control of German policy, but its next steps were obvious to any contemporary with even the slightest grasp of the situation. The detour into Belgium had been flagged long in advance by the French, and could only be looked at in one way. The solution, though not officially announced in Berlin, was to manufacture a wide range of rumours of French border violations into a kind of justification. This was brought to its logical conclusion, as the Germans tried to claim - with a straight face - that they needed to invade Belgium, because the French were about to invade there too, so it was essential for German security.

Who could possibly believe such a naked set of lies? Remarkably, the rumour mill was so effective, that it was persuasive enough within German society, and among German officials. Countless communiques emphasised the defensive nature of Germany's offensive actions, and chastised other Europeans for their lack of understanding. Berlin could try to create this alternative reality, but in truth the Schlieffen Plan was the real driving force behind their actions, and other powers could clearly see this truth. Yet, in a policy which was as cynical as it was cringeworthy, Berlin persevered, insistent to the end that offence was defence, and the invasion of Belgium was an urgent matter of national security.

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Even as Moltke examined Germany's strategic options, the world was turning against Germany. Berlin pressed its case by pointing out the Russian sins of dishonesty and pre-emption, but was anyone listening? Britain's diplomats in Berlin, St Petersburg, and Vienna had had enough. The news from Luxemburg was a clear sign of things to come, and even if they were sympathetic to the Kaiser's position, the German response was viewed as an overreaction. Declarations of war came from Berlin and Vienna, not Paris and St Petersburg, and this was bound to drown out any pleas about technicalities.

To make up for this, German officials began reporting with increasing frequency on rumours and conjecture, dressing up impossible stories about outrages and violations as proof of Russian and French responsibility. But this only made their hole deeper, and even as Berlin cried foul, it was actively moving the ball forward, into Belgium. The imperatives of the Schlieffen Plan meant the ruin of Germany's reputation, and forced German officials to cling to the delusion that the eventual triumph would all be worth it - even while they opened Pandora's Box, and unleashed the madness of a great war upon the world.

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While Germany covered itself in infamy, the German ambassador in London did his best to maintain the fragile Anglo-German relationship. His mission was ultimately doomed, but no one could accuse Prince Max Lichnowsky of failing to try. An avid Anglophile and advocate of closer ties between the two countries, Lichnowsky continued to hope that his masters in Berlin could be persuaded that it was worth making a sacrifice in the war effort, if it meant Britain stayed out of the war.

Unfortunately for him, Berlin did not agree, and had effectively written Lichnowsky off as having gone native. Lichnowsky would not spare his masters from criticism, and would insist until the end of his life that Germany had been the agent of its own misfortunate, while he was just one of many casualties.

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