The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars.

A long-term structural trend—surging retirements—is keeping the unemployment rate from rising drastically even during short-term cyclical deterioration in the labour market.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:

• The mechanisms of how record retirements keep the unemployment rate low over the medium-term.

• Why the U.S. arguably needs more new workers than it needs new jobs.

• How these structural forces will play out with near-term cyclical forces (like a labour market deterioration).

• How immigration policy in Canada has blunted—but not fully eliminated—the cost of population aging.