Why are so many young Canadian families leaving Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal? Even after return-to-office mandates, the exodus from Canada's largest cities continues.

In this episode of Classonomics, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux explore the data behind Canada's urban migration trends and debate why affordability isn't the only factor driving people away. They discuss housing costs, crime and public safety, mental health, community, urban planning, and whether government policies are making sprawl even worse.

Topics covered:

• Why Canadians are leaving the GTA, Metro Vancouver, and Montreal
• Why return-to-office hasn't reversed the trend
• Housing affordability and the shortage of family-sized homes
• Crime, public safety, and quality of life in big cities
• Mental health, community, and life satisfaction
• Urban growth boundaries, the Greenbelt, and sprawl
• Why smaller cities are attracting young families
• What policymakers are getting wrong about housing and urban planning

Subscribe for more conversations on housing, economics, public policy, and the future of Canada.

Chapters: 

00:00 The Great Canadian Family Exodus
01:05 Mike's Biggest Prediction Miss
03:05 Why Millennials Are Leaving Cities
04:17 Is Toronto Becoming Too Chaotic?
06:22 Does Crime Make Families Move?
09:44 Are Small Towns Better for Mental Health?
11:57 Why Community Matters More Than Ever
14:32 It All Comes Back to Housing
15:35 The Greenbelt's Unintended Consequences
17:29 When Good Environmental Policy Goes Wrong
18:40 The Case for Evidence-Based Policy

Research/links:

Housing is a large part of the story. The OECD has examined this:

https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/05/oecd-economic-surveys-canada-2025_ee18a269/full-report/improving-housing-affordability_3d430d2e.html

As has Statistics Canada: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/241119/dq241119b-eng.htm 

Remote Work and Employment Dynamics under COVID-19: Evidence from Canada

 https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7971424/

Upjohn Institute: https://www.upjohn.org/remote-works-quiet-impact-rural-communities

C.D. Howe: https://cdhowe.org/publication/settling-new-normal-working-home-across-canada/ 

Social ties and quality of life, including lower rates of depression: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2025002/article/00003-eng.htm 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20376426/ 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-design/article-why-some-people-are-choosing-country-life-over-the-city/ 

Though evidence is nuanced: https://www.cmaj.ca/content/184/17/E889 

Crime and disorder:

https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/urban-violent-crime-report-comparing-crime-across-canadian-cities-volume-2/

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2025001/article/00005-eng.htm 

McDonald-Laurier Report: https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Urban-Violent-Crime-Report_Final.pdf 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/