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Two days before SpaceX launches the largest IPO in history at a flat $135/share, our VC roundtable drops a scorcher: The top 1% of seed deals might actually be underpriced. Plus: the "Sequoia scam" dual-tranche controversy, tokens-for-equity deals, and whether Claude Fable 5 is a true step function.

Tomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures), Michael Downing (Castalia Capital), and Paige Doherty (Behind Genius Ventures) join Alex to go deep on Seed investing, startup economics, AI spend, and the impact of smarter AI on the founder journey.

Guest Links:

Tomasz Tunguz: https://x.com/ttunguz

Theory Ventures: https://theoryvc.com/

Michael Downing: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaeldowning/

Castalia Capital: https://castalia.capital/

Paige Doherty: https://x.com/paigefinnn

Behind Genius Ventures: https://www.behindgeniusventures.com

Show Links:

Anthropic’s IPO announcement: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec

OpenAI’s IPO announcement: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/

Bending Spoons F-1 filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2004711/000110465926071170/tm2613674-7_f1.htm

SpaceX IPO filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026040364/spaceexplorationtechnologib.htm

Brendan Foody’s post on Sequoia: https://x.com/BrendanFoody/status/2063470286515683759

Claude Fable 5: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5

OpenRouter data on Chinese models: https://openrouter.ai/rankings?view=day

Saronic: https://www.saronic.com/

MotherDuck: https://motherduck.com/

Nox Metals: https://noxmetals.co/

Timestamps:

0:00 Tomasz Tunguz, Michael Downing & Paige Doherty join

2:07 The SpaceX IPO and the IPO window

4:22 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!

6:30 The new bar: 10x growth (not 3x) to raise a great Series A

8:46 Net-new AI budgets

9:46 Squarespace: Turn your idea into a beautiful website! Go to https://www.squarespace.com/twist for a free trial. When you're ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.

11:09 How some founders are outgrowing venture capital

11:44 The power pendulum swings back to founders

12:46 SpaceX vs. OpenAI vs. Anthropic: Which IPO is most enticing?

19:53 Deel - Founders scale faster on Deel. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, get visas handled fast, and get back to building. Visit https://deel.com/twist to learn more.

26:07 Tokens-for-equity, GPU-hours-for-equity & the financialization of compute

28:35 Founders airing VC dirty laundry (napping VCs included)

29:56 Netsuite - The business landscape is very chaotic right now. That's why you need NetSuite, by Oracle. Get the free business guide Demystifying AI at https://Netsuite.com/TWiST

36:38 Claude Fable 5 first impressions: pricing, benchmarks & orchestration

45:42 Where value accrues: application layer vs. models vs. private data

1:00:06 Nationalization of AI labs: Bernie Sanders, Sam Altman & Trump agree?!

1:01:25 Portfolio spotlights: Saronic, MotherDuck, and Nox Metals

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Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland

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