We hear why nutrition should never be considered when trying to reduce expenses on the ranch.  How are grass cattle selling at local auctions?  We hear news, markets, updates and more wrapped into this all new  episode of The Ranch It Up Radio Show. Be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcasting app or on the Ranch It Up Radio Show YouTube Channel.

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Flat is the new up, when it comes to the latest forecast of U.S. beef production, according to the latest analysis by Steiner Consulting Group, via its Daily Livestock Report.

It’s likely that beef production for this year will be  only 509 million pounds – 1.9% - lower than a year ago, the report said. That’s a sharp improvement from the expected 8% drop forecast a year ago. Meanwhile, the USDA held steady with its beef import forecast, anticipating a 12% rise, and its expectations for an 8% drop in beef exports. That means that the country’s supply of beef per capita is roughly unchanged, according to Steiner analysis. 

Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist recently wrote for meatingplace.com saying that U.S. beef trade continues to evolve in the face of a unique domestic cattle market situation.  Beef exports in February were down 1.3% year over year with the two-month total thus far in 2024 down 2.6%.  This follows a 2023 year over year decrease of 14.3% from record 2022 beef exports.  Beef exports in the first two months of the year are down year over year from most of the top markets; including number one Japan, number two South Korea, and number three China/Hong Kong.  Additionally, Canada, the number five market is down 2.0% thus far in 2024, along with number six Taiwan.  Mexico, which had been the number three market as recently as 2019, is currently the number four market but recovering.  Beef exports to Mexico were up in January and February.

Beef imports in February were up 23.8% year over year and are up 31.9% in the first two months of the year.  Beef imports this year are led by Brazil, who jumps out strongly to fill the “other country” quota early in the year, with shipments moderating after two or three months in the face of the over-quota tariff.  Imports from Brazil are up 41.8% year over year thus far in 2024.  Imports from Australia are up sharply so far this year.  Canada is the number two import source, slightly ahead of Australia and up 9.0 percent year over year.  New Zealand is the number four beef import source and is up 48.6 percent thus far in 2024.  

Beef exports continue to face headwinds as beef production decreases and beef prices increase in the U.S. market.  A generally strong U.S. dollar adds additional headwinds, making U.S. beef imports more expensive to international customers.  At the same time, decreasing domestic beef supplies in the U.S., coupled with higher prices, attracts additional beef imports, with the strong dollar adding additional incentive for beef imports.  As is typical, beef imports are heavily dominated by imports of lean processing beef to supplement decreasing supplies of non fed beef in the U.S.  Decreasing lean beef supplies, coupled with strong ground beef demand in the U.S. is pushing 90 percent lean prices (and ground beef prices) to record levels.  Fed beef (steer and heifer) production is declining, but the large percentage of yield grade 4 and 5 in feedlot cattle means that the supply of fatty (50 percent lean) trimmings is high relative to lean beef supplies and stimulating strong demand for domestic and imported lean processing beef to increase ground beef production.

DLCC Ranch:  April 20, 2024, Pierz, Minnesota

Four Hill Farm North Country Angus Alliance: April 21, 2024, Bagley, Minnesota

Spruce Hill Ranch: May 2, 2024, Bowman, ND

Churchill Cattle Company

Van Newkirk Herefords

Gardiner Angus Ranch

Cow Camp Ranch

Jungels Shorthorn Farms

Ellingson Angus

Edgar Brothers Angus

Schaff Angus Valley

Prairie Hills Gelbvieh

Clear Springs Cattle Company

CK Cattle

Mrnak Hereford Ranch

Frey Angus Ranch

Hoffmann Angus Farms

Topp Herefords

River Creek Farms

Upstream Ranch

Gustin’s Diamond D Gelbvieh

Schiefelbein Farms

Wasem Red Angus

Raven Angus

Krebs Ranch

Yon Family Farms

Chestnut Angus

Eichacker Simmentals & JK Angus

Windy Creek Cattle Company

Pedersen Broken Heart Ranch

Mar Mac Farms

Warner Beef Genetics

Arda Farms & Freeway Angus

Leland Red Angus & Koester Red Angus

Fast - Dohrmann - Strommen

RBM Livestock

Weber Land & Cattle

Sundsbak Farms

Hidden Angus

Wheatland Cattle Company

Miller Angus Farms

L 83 Ranch

U2 Ranch

Vollmer Angus Ranch

A & B Cattle

Carter Angus Farms

Roller Ranch

Montgomery Ranch

Jorgensen Farms

Robby Bondurant, Ph.D.

Willard Lemaster

Furst - McNess Company

https://www.mcness.com/

https://www.mcness.com/legacy-forward-beef/

@FurstMcNessCompany

Austin Henderson

Stockmen's Livestock

http://www.gostockmens.com/

@GoStockmens

@AustinDanJohn

Kirk Donsbach: Stone X Financial

https://www.stonex.com/  

@StoneXGroupInc   

Mark Van Zee 

Livestock Market, Equine Market, Auction Time

https://www.auctiontime.com/

https://www.livestockmarket.com/

https://www.equinemarket.com/

@LivestockMkt

@EquineMkt

@AuctionTime

Shaye Koester

Casual Cattle Conversation

https://www.casualcattleconversations.com/

@cattleconvos

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References

https://www.stonex.com/

https://www.livestockmarket.com/

https://www.equinemarket.com/

https://www.auctiontime.com/

https://gelbvieh.org/

https://www.imogeneingredients.com/

https://alliedgeneticresources.com/

https://westwayfeed.com/

https://medoraboot.com/

http://www.gostockmens.com/

https://ranchchannel.com/

https://jorgensenfarms.com/

https://www.dlccranch.com/

https://dailylivestockreport.com/dashboard

https://www.meatingplace.com/Industry/News/Details/114174

https://www.meatingplace.com/Industry/News/Details/114144