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We unpack why China’s soybean purchase timeline keeps sliding, how the market is reacting, and who should be accountable. We dig into border biosecurity worries, beef policy levers, the coming Fed move, crop insurance changes, and a likely aid bridge to 2026.

• shifting claims on China’s soybean buys and missing signatures
• soybean futures weakness and market skepticism
• screwworm concerns and quieter agency updates at the border
• cattle rally versus talk of tariff cuts and import levers
• USMCA review signals, Mexico demand, and retaliation risks
• Farm Bill 2.0 delays and SNAP’s dominant share
• E15 year-round push, RFS volumes, and 45Z SAF uncertainty
• crop insurance rule changes and prevent plant buy-up removal
• rumored $12–14bn farmer aid and timing of payments
• high fertilizer costs, planting talk, and cash flow strain

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Thank you, Tommy G