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We break down a light-cut USDA report, the surprise weight from “fringe” state yields, and why corn fell while soybeans slipped despite modest changes. We connect Brazil’s growing edge, cotton’s production jump, and lender warnings to policy pivots on tariffs and trade aid.

• Corn production trimmed, carryout still higher
• Fringe states offset I‑state cuts in corn
• Soybean exports ceded to Brazil and Argentina
• CONAB vs USDA gaps on Brazil output
• Cotton yield gains in Texas pressure prices
• Daily sales resume with big Mexico corn buy
• No repeat of a Great Grain Robbery scenario
• Lenders see rising credit stress and equity burn
• Cattle cycle tightness and policy signals
• Rates near 4 percent keep financing costly
• Tariff pivot on non‑produced imports eases inflation
• Trade aid likely, size and timing adjusted

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Thank you, Tommy G