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We sprint through a year where metals spiked, bonds bristled, and policy moved markets as much as weather. We map the big shifts in grains, cattle, inputs, biofuels, trade, and the politics of food prices, then lay out what could drive demand in 2026.

• stocks rising while bonds flag risk
• silver surge and China’s export controls
• corn buoyed by exports despite big crops
• soybeans pressured by Brazil and timing
• wheat capped by global stocks
• cotton weakened on China demand
• cattle cycle tightness and shock events
• hog inventories tamping prices
• bird flu and vaccine trade implications
• sticky food inflation as political fuel
• SNAP fights and affordability fault lines
• GLP-1 drugs shifting sugar and alcohol demand
• MAHA focus on ultra-processed foods
• USDA reorg and service capacity strain
• input costs squeezing margins and machinery slowdown
• RFS, E-15, and 45Z delays clouding biofuels
• rail merger bid and logistics uncertainty
• rural healthcare costs and ACA credits
• labor reform tensions around H2A and year-round needs
• WOTUS reset pushing oversight to states
• OB3 tax permanence shaping farm planning
• cannabis reclassification and rural economics
• structural policy forces redefining ag beyond cycles
• pivot to domestic utilization for durable demand

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Thank you, Tommy G