May 16, 2026

Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | The Bull needs to be Fed

45 minutes

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We break down why markets feel whippy right now, from wheat supply shocks and trade headlines to fertilizer costs that keep sneaking back into every margin conversation. We keep coming back to one driver we can’t ignore: rising interest rates and Treasury yields that set the tone for everything from hedging to farm finances.
• cotton, soybeans, corn, and wheat reacting to summit expectations and profit taking
• why markets can peak on bullish news and bottom on bearish news
• USDA NASS winter wheat estimates surprising the trade and tightening stocks
• North Dakota dust storm and wind damage risk for spring wheat and replant decisions
• Trump-China summit takeaways including tariff frameworks, shipping costs, and beef plant registrations
• year-round E15 clearing the House and the Senate path staying uncertain
• the RFS waiver fight and why assumptions matter for ethanol and biodiesel demand
• Mexico pork restrictions focused on specific products and what it means for packer margins
• USMEF export study showing how beef and pork exports add value to corn and soybeans
• fertilizer hearing highlights, domestic production timelines, and oil price pressure
• beef import tariff plan delayed after backlash
• Kevin Warsh taking the Fed as CPI, PPI, and Treasury yields push “higher for longer”
• Iran conflict risk feeding energy inflation and spilling into ag inputs
• Corteva outlook on gene editing and hybrid wheat as a real productivity lever
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