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Washington stalls while markets swing, and we map how a shutdown, China tensions, and a stronger dollar hit soybeans, sorghum, and cotton. We outline SDRP Stage Two, likely top-ups, funding routes, and why APH-based aid makes more sense than production-based payments.

• USDA reports paused and payments delayed under the shutdown
• SDRP Stage Two timing, potential top-ups beyond 35 percent
• RFS and 45Z delays and what that means for crush and SAF demand
• China’s zero U.S. soybean buys and Brazil’s expanding share
• Sorghum export losses, cotton price pressure, acreage shifts ahead
• Dollar strength as a headwind for U.S. exports
• Why APH-based aid would avoid double penalties for producers
• Long game: diversify markets, expand domestic crush capacity
• Market tape: oil on peace headlines, equities correcting, gold bid on de-dollarization

USDA farmer aid coming, but what and when?

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Thank you, Tommy G