In 2020 there were 1.8 million reported Covid deaths. So far this year, we’ve had 1.2 million. We’re currently seeing around 12,000 deaths a day across the world. But while some areas are seeing falls in numbers, others such as India are seeing a surge.

This week Tim Harford tries to answer the question: Will there be more global deaths this year from Covid 19 compared to last year?