Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnic Armenian enclave within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. In the early 1990s Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a bloody war resulting in Armenia's de-facto control of Nagorno-Karabakh.

For most of the last 30 years this was a frozen conflict with occasional flareups only fitful progress towards a diplomatic and political resolution. Then, in September 2020 Azerbaijan launched an offensive resulting in the rout of the Armenian army and the capture of large swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shaken up a ceasefire agreement and over the course of 2022, Azerbaijan has expanded its control of key strategic territories in the region.

According to my guest today Olesya Vartanyan there is a high risk that Azerbaijan may press its military advantage and resume a full scale conflict in the region.

Olesya Vartanyan is the International Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for the South Caucasus region. We kick off discussing a worsening humanitarian crisis in parts of Nagorno Karabakh, sparked by a blockade of a key corridor linking Armenia to key parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. We then discuss the trends in the conflict and diplomacy, including a hopeful move by the European Union to approve a civilian monitoring mission.