WTFinance

Interview recorded - 23rd of November, 2022

On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Brent Donnelly - President of Spectra Markets, an experienced currency, equity and futures trader, and author of two books on trading “Alpha Trader) and “The Art of Currency Trading”.

During our conversation we spoke about Key Macro trends Brent is watching, whether we have seen the end of dollar strength (for now), how Brent is looking to position himself and historical periods that this market reminds him of. I hope you enjoy!

Buy the books here - 

Alpha Trader - https://amzn.to/3VdUuKM
The Art of Currency Trading - https://amzn.to/3OxvYSh

0:00 - Introduction
0:20 - Key macro trends Brent is watching?
5:50 - People love the FED trade
8:25 - Pullback from Dollar strength and equity weakness?
12:50 - Hot property markets 
16:18 - Could debt serving risk become an issue in 2023?
17:20 - Key data points in the US for recession?
21:10 - What historical period does this market remind you of?
27:30 - How are you looking to position yourself?
38:10 - Any trends that aren’t getting enough trend?
41:40 - JPY
44:47 - One message to take away from our conversation?

Brent Donnelly has been trading currencies since 1995 and writing about macro since 2004. He is currently President of Spectra Markets. Brent is the author of Alpha Trader (2021) and The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected macro and FX daily called AM/FX. Over the course of his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in foreign exchange.

He has extensive experience trading currencies, FX options, stock index futures, NASDAQ stocks, and commodities. Brent is a respected macro thinker with the unique perspective of a senior risk taker. He has been quoted by or featured in the Economist, Real Vision, Epsilon Theory, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, and CNBC.

Before joining Spectra, Brent was a senior FX trader at HSBC, head of G10 Spot Trading at Citi New York and global head of G10 FX Trading at Nomura New York. He was also a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund in Connecticut for three years. He created and wrote a cartoon called ‘‘Daft Planet,’’ which aired on TV in Canada, and he dreams of one day winning the Man Booker Prize.

Brent Donnelly - 

Website - http://brentdonnelly.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent?
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brent-donnelly-98321187/
Spectra - https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 21st of November, 2022

On todays episode of the WTFinance I had the pleasure of speaking with Weston Nakamura, Former Goldman Sachs and Jefferies trader in Tokyo and currently Global Markets Editor at Real Vision. 

During this conversation we spoke about Weston's unconventional route into finance, unique methods of analysing markets, following capital, the importance of the BoJ & a catalyst for further bond market volatility. I hope you enjoy!

Weston has released multiple videos on the BoJ and his trading approach which I have share below - 

Why Global Markets are Addicted to the Bank of Japan - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9l2flhMSVE&feature=youtu.be

How the Bank of Japan Blew Up Global Markets in 2022 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0a9DuqhVvU

How to (and not to) Trade Geopolitical Risk - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvQkRhCpMkM

Trading Geopolitical Risk Part 2 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2XW_TG8LFI

If you would like to see more of Weston's and other finance content, you can get instant access to their daily briefing with the link below - 

https://www.realvision.com/WTFinance

0:00 - Introduction
0:44 - Weston’s unconventional route into finance
10:51 - What would have happened if he didn’t get a job?
13:00 - Unique method of analysing markets?
16:29 - Understanding what moves markets
19:25 - Motives/goals of capital
21:10 - Example of using this strategy
26:25 - Current Bank of Japan policies and why they are unique?
37:11 - Big pivot or just a small change in policy?
39:30 - What would influence high volatility?
42:45 - Catalyst for further bond market volatility?
44: 50 - Anything else Weston is keeping a close eye on?
48:30 - FTX and issues Weston has with Fintwit 
56:30 - My own opinion?
1:02:15 - One message to takeaway from our interview?

Weston is the Global Markets Editor at Real Vision, based in Tokyo. As a former listed derivatives trader at Goldman Sachs and hedge fund sales at Jefferies, Weston takes a global approach across asset classes including equities, rates, currencies, commodities and crypto through the lens of price action, cross-asset relationships, central banks and policy, along with other market drivers. 

Weston makes his own original video content for Real Vision with a focus on non-consensus views, analysis, themes, ideas and trades, often presented with a twist of his signature humour.

Weston Nakamura - 

Twitter - https://twitter.com/acrossthespread?
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/westonnakamura/
Website - https://acrossthespread.com/
Weston Videos - https://t.co/mGEVHIzbbP

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 17th of November, 2022

On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Bob Elliott, Former Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates and currently Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds.

During our conversation we talked about inflation, whether the Fed will pivot soon, how this is impact ting Europe and the potential for a secular shift. I hope you enjoy! 

0:00 - Introduction
0:21 - What are you currently paying attention to?
3:05 - Is inflation becoming sticky?
6:15 - Any comparisons to the past?
10:20 - Will the FED pivot soon?
12:15 - EU going to devalue against the dollar further?
14:30 - All linked to Italy?
19:06 - Any other macro trends?
23:05 - Nearshoring?
24:20 - Inflationary dynamic for longer?
27:35 - More room for value investing companies?
30:00 - What would have to happen to go back to 2019 markets?
32:40 - Shift from passive to active management overperformance?
35:45 - One message tot take away from our conversation?

Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital & private equity. 

Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha Fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for almost a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counselled some of the world’s foremost policy makers and institutional investor on economic and investing issues. 

Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. There he revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions. 

Bob holds a BA in History and Science from Harvard. 

Bob Elliott - 

Website - https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/bobeunlimited?s=21&t=bEWfVJjh6KcziPA0zpyEPA
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ttoillebob

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 24th of October, 2022

On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with John Williams, founder of ShadowStats, a website that calculates the “actual” inflation rate.

During our conversation we talked about what is wrong with our current measurement, why inflation may actually be 16%, whether gold moves with this measurement of inflation and more. I hope you enjoy! 

0:00 - Introduction
0:26 - What is wrong with our current measurement of inflation?
6:05 - Gold moving with inflation?
9:10 - When else did we experience this type of inflation?
11:35 - What was actual inflation like through the 2010’s?
13:00 - Any indicators to watch what real CPI might be in the coming months?
21:00 - How does the FED reduce Q1?
21:45 - Impact on precious metals
23:45 - One message to take away from interview?

Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.

John has been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting. 

One of his early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce.  Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked John if he could fix it. He realised the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for his client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless. 

That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. For a number of years he conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and his results led to front page stories in 1989 in the New York Times and Investors Daily (now Investors Business Daily), considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies.  

Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience.

Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients—large and small—including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. John has also have provided testimony before Congress. 

John Williams - 

Shadowstats- http://www.shadowstats.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/shadowstats?s=21&t=Sfk6z767icOb135AC_Kx0w

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

On todays episode of the WTFinance Podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at Goldmoney, Educator for sound money and demystifying finance and economics. 

During the interview we talked about why bank credit is so important, the risk of a potential fiat currency collapse, Bretton Wood 2.0 and the potential societal shift after the currency collapse. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
0:25 - Why is bank credit so important in our system?
8:25 - Lagged economic response to current issues
16:00 - Near collapse of UK bond market warning of future?
21:00 - Gold is money and the rest is credit
28:15 - Bretton Wood 2.0?
32:20 - Without Bretton Wood 2.0, what other system will come online in the West?
37:05 - Where does growth come from if we don’t increase bank credit?
44:20 - Societal shifts after currency collapses
46:20 - Could precious metals be confiscated?
50:35 - One message to take away from interview?

Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money through demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.

Alasdair Macleod started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.

Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.

For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macroeconomic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.

Alasdair Macleod - 

Website - https://www.goldmoney.com/
Blog - https://www.goldmoney.com/research/legal-definitions-of-money-and-credit
Twitter - https://twitter.com/MacleodFinance
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alasdair-macleod-9494b27/

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Gregory Mannarino, “The Robin Hood of Wall Street” and Founder of Traders Choice. 

During our conversation we spoke about what is currently happening in the market, the currency problem, what the catalyst for the collapse will be and how to protect your wealth during this period. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction 
0:24 - What is happening in the markets?
1:35 - What is a price discovery mechanism?
3:05 - Main reasons that the stock market has increased over the last 40 years?
6:15 - What would Greg do as the FED chair?
7:30 - If it is a currency problem, why is the US Dollar strong?
9:25 - What is the catalyst for this collapse?
11:40 - Central Banks trying to keep the system going
14:45 - Faith isn’t enough anymore
18:35 - Why does the FED want control?
19:35 - Is there any way that the system doesn’t collapse?
23:05 - Bandaids preventing the inevitable
23:50 - Any assets that could protect individuals wealth?
26:00 - Inputs that go into indicator?
29:10 - One message to take away from the interview?

Gregory Mannarino, also known as "The Robin Hood Of Wall Street," is an active/full time trader of the capital markets with a world-wide following.

Born on July 22, 1965, he became interested in "Wall Street," like many others at the time, in 1987 after seeing the movie Wall Street with Michael Douglas. Around that time he was able to get an entry level position, then subsequently to the trading floor,  at the now defunct bank Bear Stearns, but within a relatively short time realized that working on Wall Street was not like the movies and moved on. 

He went on to get a medical degree and practiced medicine as a Physician Assistant beginning in 1996, now retired from practice. He also served in the United States Naval Reserve Medical Service Corps, having attained the rank of Lieutenant. Gregory even published a book on casino Blackjack strategies years later, and was banned from playing the game in Las Vegas casinos.

Gregory Mannarino - 

YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/c/GregoryMannarino
Traders Choice - https://traderschoice.net/

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

On todays episode of the WTFinance Podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of the ‘’Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’’.

During the conversation we talked about how the FED is destroying the economy, why inflation is out of control, whether we will see the rise of emerging markets and more! 

0:00 - Introduction 
0:40 - Is the FED destroying the economy?
6:10 - Was the FED too slow to react?
8:35 - Is this time different?
11:50 - This inflation has come from Fiscal & Monetary effects?
13:10 - Is the economy already collapsed?
14:50 - Why have we already had a crash?
17:40 - Dollar strength shielding US against higher inflation?
19:58 - US Stock Market vs EU Stock Market
21:25 - The rise of emerging markets?
23:10 - Interest rates at 8% in Europe?
27:05 - Will we see hyperinflation or any similarities to the Great Depression?
34:50 - Where are you positive about?
39:29 - One message to take away from interview?

Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude.

Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. 

In June 1990, he set up his own business, publishing a widely read monthly investment newsletter “THE GLOOM BOOM & DOOM” report which highlights unusual investment opportunities.

He is also the author of several books including “TOMORROW’S GOLD – Asia’s Age of Discovery” which was first published in 2002 and highlights future investment opportunities around the world. “TOMORROW’S GOLD” was for several weeks on Amazon’s best seller list and has been translated into Japanese, Korean, Thai and German.

Dr. Faber is also a regular contributor to several leading financial publications around the world.

A book on Dr Faber, “RIDING THE MILLENNIAL STORM”, by Nury Vittachi, was published in 1998.

A regular speaker at various investment seminars, Dr Faber is well known for his “contrarian” investment approach.

Marc Faber -

Website - https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/gloomboomdoom?lang=en
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/marc-faber-gloomboomdoom/?originalSubdomain=hk

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 27th of October, 2022

On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Dave "True Disbeliever" Collum, Professor of Organc Chemistry &leading thinker on markets and the larger world around us. 

During the conversation we talked about how are world has become more dangerous, the Ukraine/Russian conflict, the current state of China and impacts these macroeconomic events have on the market. 

0:00 - Introduction
0:30 - How have we gotten to this dangerous world we live in today?
2:20 - Shouldn’t be worried about East vs West?
3:16 - You are with us or you are against us
6:20 - Post Collapse of the Berlin War
7:40 - Most interesting thing in your research?
9:12 - How does this Ukraine/Russia conflict end?
12:30 - Best thing is a stalemate in Ukraine?
15:20 - Russian support in Ukraine?
22:30 - Russia is not a military superpower?
24:40 - Lots of complexities in life
25:45 - Opinion on the current state of China?
35:10 - Return to value investing over performance?
40:15 - Will we see a recession and impact on S&P500?
43:45 - Austerity or growth faster than inflation
48:55 - Issues with pipelines in North East US
52:48 - One message to take away from our conversation?

David Collum received a BS in biology from Cornell in 1977 and an MA, MS, and PhD in chemistry from Columbia University in 1980. Dave currently is the Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry at Cornell University. While at Cornell Dave has served as Director of Undergraduate Studies, Director of Graduate Studies, associate chairman, and chairman while running a research program in organic chemistry for forty years, which include collaborations with a host of large-cap pharmaceutical companies exemplified by Merck and Pfizer. In recent years he has become interested in the interface where politics and markets meet. He compiles an annual Year in Review, does several dozen podcasts per year, and occasionally stirs up trouble on more mainstream media sources.

Dave Collum - 

Twitter - https://twitter.com/davidbcollum?s=21&t=xvXQIRnoZm5mxXw68trHEQ

WTFinance -

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

On todays episode of the WTFinance Podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Doomberg - the famous green chicken highlighting the fundamentals missing from many economic and policy decisions, specifically in the energy markets. 

We talked about the overall energy market, how winter ends in Europe, why negative gas prices in Europe aren't telling the whole story, "War Profiteering" and the future of Nuclear. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
0:43 - Overview of the energy markets
3:48 - How does this winter in Europe end?
6:30 - Negative Natural Gas in Europe, will this save Europe?
12:55 - Challenge of getting energy to the right place
15:45 - Why will next Winter be worse in Europe?
18:05 - Are Energy Companies “War Profiteering”?
24:40 - Complexities behind refining 
28:25 - What drives market efficiencies in energy?
33:00 - Why Nuclear is the way forward and fears are misplaced
38:53 - One message to take away from our interview?

The group started writing Doomberg in May of 2021 to highlight the fundamentals missing from many economic and policy decisions, and it quickly grew to be one of the most widely read finance newsletters on Substack.

This publication is their passion, and the content is borne out of the team’s deep experience in heavy industry, private equity, and the hard sciences. Family offices and c-suite executives hired them to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems – they operate as though their subscribers share those same expectations.

Read their full bio here - https://doomberg.substack.com/about

Doomberg - 

Substack - https://doomberg.substack.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/DoombergT

WTFinance 

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/
Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Interview recorded - 22nd of October, 2022

On todays episode of the WTFinance Podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Michael Oliver, Founder of Momentum Structural Analysis.

During the interview we talked about Michael's investment strategy, the challenges the markets are currently experiencing, how precious metals may replace bonds as the safe haven asset in the US and potential for a continued strong US Dollar for the near future. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
0:20 - Michael’s investment strategy and flaws in traditional analysis
5:21 - What is currently happening in the markets?
9:45 - Commodity inflation 
18:05 - Precious metals replacing bonds at safe haven assets in the US
21:05 - How will increased volatility effect momentum investing?
25:05-  Any other assets other than commodities to watch?
30:50 - One message to take away from interview?

J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park.  He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s Mike began to develop his own momentum-based method of technical analysis.  He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash.  It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992 the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust  Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia.  Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical research.  He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

Michael Oliver - 

Website - https://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA

WTFinance -

Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfn
iTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4
Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas