Market strategist Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund with $4.5 billion in AUM, joins Julia on episode 99 to explain why the U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. In this episode, Cecchini shares the three reasons why he’s taking a cautious stance and why it’s a matter of “when” rather than “if” we’ll see a recession.

Links:

https://www.axoniccap.com/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercecchini/

0:00 Intro

0:57 Macro picture/ remaining in the recession camp

2:29 3 reasons why we’re headed toward recession

4:19 American consumer

5:31 Equity markets

8:34 Credit markets 12:06 CMBS, the beginnings of a repricing

15:43 Vulnerabilities

18:08 Zombie companies

22:37 Fed outlook

26:00 How Cecchini got ahead of inflation

27:50 Long and variable lags question