BiggerPockets Money Podcast

120: Are FIRE Naysayers Bad at Math? Yes. with Michael Kitces


Listen Later

Michael Kitces joins us today to talk about Early Retirement - and how the recent stock market movement affects the FIRE Community and the 4% rule.

We spend a lot of time on the 4% rule - including this graph which illustrates what Michael discusses - basically, there is an ultra-high probability that you will come to the end of 30 years with MORE money than you started out with, and an extremely LOW chance you’ll spend it all. In fact, only one time does the retirement fund hit zero - and even that isn’t until year 31!

Since the FIRE Movement is based on the 4% rule, we wanted to hear from Michael, the Research Nerd Supreme, what he feels about it. “...historical safe withdrawal rates aren’t based on historical averages. They’re based on historical worst case scenarios.”

Yes, we’re seeing some pretty big movement in the market, and yes, it can make you think. This episode provides some pretty powerful reassurance that “every little thing, is gonna be all right.”

If you are worrying about your financial future, if you have money or want more, this powerful episode is a can’t miss, absolutely-must-listen edition of BiggerPockets Money.

In This Episode We Cover:

  • The origin of 4% rule
  • Three different time periods that trigger the 4% number
  • Safe withdrawal rates
  • Different 4% rule scenario
  • Bucket strategy
  • Key assumptions that start crapping up on modeling or evaluating the short term cash bucket
  • The right time to start looking at bonds
  • Constant mid-course adjustments
  • What a retirement red zone is
  • Bond tent strategy
  • Safe withdrawal rate research
  • Guardrail strategy
  • Smart money moves during this market
  • Dollar cost averaging
  • And SO much more!

  • Links from the Show

    • FinCon
    • Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data
    • Software Solutions To Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates
    • Online Data - Robert Shiller
    • The Ratcheting Safe Withdrawal Rate – A More Dominant Version Of The 4% Rule?
    • Yield Shield - Millennial Revolution
    • How Has The 4% Rule Held Up Since The Tech Bubble And The 2008 Financial Crisis?
    • Mr. Money Mustache
    • BiggerPockets Money Facebook Page
    • Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

      ...more
      View all episodesView all episodes
      Download on the App Store

      BiggerPockets Money PodcastBy BiggerPockets

      • 4.5
      • 4.5
      • 4.5
      • 4.5
      • 4.5

      4.5

      2,959 ratings


      More shows like BiggerPockets Money Podcast

      View all
      Afford Anything | Make Smart Money Choices by Paula Pant, Personal Finance Expert | Cumulus Podcast Network

      Afford Anything | Make Smart Money Choices

      3,569 Listeners

      BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast by BiggerPockets

      BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

      16,728 Listeners

      Money Guy Show by Brian Preston and Bo Hanson

      Money Guy Show

      3,268 Listeners

      The Stacking Benjamins Show by StackingBenjamins.com | Money Podcast | Cumulus Podcast Network

      The Stacking Benjamins Show

      1,997 Listeners

      Your Money, Your Wealth by Joe Anderson, CFP® & Alan Clopine, CPA of Pure Financial Advisors

      Your Money, Your Wealth

      811 Listeners

      ChooseFI by ChooseFI

      ChooseFI

      5,154 Listeners

      Earn & Invest by Jordan Grumet (Doc G)

      Earn & Invest

      453 Listeners

      BiggerPockets Business Podcast by BiggerPockets

      BiggerPockets Business Podcast

      692 Listeners

      Real Estate Rookie by BiggerPockets

      Real Estate Rookie

      1,823 Listeners

      The Personal Finance Podcast by Andrew Giancola

      The Personal Finance Podcast

      1,433 Listeners

      BiggerPockets Daily by BiggerPockets

      BiggerPockets Daily

      319 Listeners

      PassivePockets: The Passive Real Estate Investing Show by PassivePockets, Jim Pfeifer, and Left Field Investors

      PassivePockets: The Passive Real Estate Investing Show

      133 Listeners

      All the Hacks: Money, Points & Life by Chris Hutchins

      All the Hacks: Money, Points & Life

      1,622 Listeners

      Mile High FI Podcast by Doug Cunnington & Carl Jensen

      Mile High FI Podcast

      206 Listeners

      On The Market by BiggerPockets

      On The Market

      903 Listeners

      Catching Up to FI by Bill Yount & Jackie Cummings Koski

      Catching Up to FI

      354 Listeners

      The BetterLife Podcast by Brandon Turner and Cam Cathcart

      The BetterLife Podcast

      855 Listeners

      The David Greene Show by David Greene

      The David Greene Show

      706 Listeners