35 West

Texas is greatly affected by tariffs, trade, and travel across the U.S. southern border. Matthew Rooney, director of the Economic Growth Initiative at the George W. Bush Institute in Dallas, gives us the view from the Lone Star State. He also explains border infrastructure, supply chains, and the long-term economic effects of trade barriers on North America. He and Richard also trade predictions on the art of an immigration deal before the 2020 elections.

Democrats now run the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Does it matter for Latin America? According to former Bush official José Cardenas, apart from Trump’s Wall there is remarkable bipartisan consensus on what needs to be done in hotspots like Venezuela, Nicaragua, and even Central America. On migration and border security, Cardenas argues against a “Fortress America” mentality if we want to preserve a dynamic economy. Finally, he predicts the eventual assimilation of Latin American voters into both major parties.

Arguably no state is more politically important than Florida, which has become an electoral microcosm for the whole country. But Hispanic voting patterns in the Sunshine State - and the definition of Hispanic - is very different. Ana Quintana, an expert at the Heritage Foundation, explains the results of the 2018 midterms on statewide races. She and Richard also discuss the importance of the immigration issue to Mexican voters, and the effect it will have on both parties for the 2020 campaign and beyond.

Mexico’s government has surrendered its monopoly on the use of force, while large Mexican companies exert one in the marketplace. So argues Francisco González of SAIS in this week’s episode of 35 West. Along the way, Francisco covers 50 years of Mexican politics, Mexicans’ support for democracy, and the prospects for reducing violence and the flow of drugs to the U.S. Finally, he predicts stability in the US-Mexican political relationship, at least until the Mexican midterm elections in 2020.

January 10, the date a new presidential period begins, represents an unprecedented opportunity for the international community to help halt Venezuela’s collapse. Despite the refusal of nearly 50 countries to recognize the May 2018 Venezuelan presidential elections, Nicolas Maduro plans to be sworn in. The implications of so many nations not recognizing Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate president after January 10 have yet to be determined. CSIS Senior Advisor Mark Schneider and Venezuela expert Antonio de La Cruz join CSIS’ Moises Rendon to discuss the political, diplomatic and legal implications moving forward.

New leaders in Mexico and Brazil may mean big changes to their respective energy sectors. Energy expert Lisa Viscidi of the Inter-American Dialogue says a Mexican delay on offshore bidding could have a major impact, but that Brazil is likely to maintain the status quo. Finally, Venezuela may eventually run dry, given the massive investment required to reverse declining oil output.

Cryptocurrency use is increasing amongst everyday Venezuelans. The Maduro regime has been tightening controls on the economy and continues to reject humanitarian aid. However, independent cryptocurrencies (as opposed to regime-controlled petro) are enabling censorship-resistant peer-to-peer digital cash transactions. Alejandro Machado, Founder of Open Money Initiative, joins CSIS’ Moises Rendon.

Current international pressure on the Venezuelan regime has not been enough to help restore the country’s democracy – at least, not yet. Venezuela is enduring the worst humanitarian crisis in the region, which is having an overwhelming impact on neighboring countries, including unprecedented waves of migrants and refugees. Fernando Cutz, a former National Security Council advisor at the White House, joins Moises Rendon for a discussion on what options are left for helping Venezuela.

Caravans from Central America. They were big news for a while, now not so much. But they are sure to return to the front pages. Manuel Orozco, Director of Migration at the Inter-American Dialogue, joins Richard for a discussion on what is causing Hondurans, Guatemalans, and Nicaraguans to leave their countries. He argues that bad governance, not just gang violence, is a big contributor. Do U.S. policymakers have any good options?

Gone are hopes for a swift congressional ratification of USMCA with the House returning to the Democrats in January. Is Canada worried, and if so, why? Christopher Sands of Johns Hopkins University is back to help us empathize with our northern neighbors, as well as the changes in the post World War II global order.