People look at the past and assume it predicts the future, yet it does not. Past events, like current ones, were influenced by randomness or luck, and they are stripped of the daily noise that influenced decisions and events at the time. Life is nonlinear which leads to chance events, so luck plays a big role. When considering a past event in politics, investments and business, look at the costs of the alternative rather than the outcomes. Think in terms of expected value, in other words, because probabilities are meaningless unless you know the magnitude of the outcomes. The bottom line is that people make emotional choices and not rational ones.