Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

Gold and silver rip to record highs while crude softens and soybeans slide, and we sort signal from noise across rates, tariffs, and safe-haven flows. Field reports from North Dakota reveal frost, disease, and wind shaping yields as cattle stays firm and DC stalls.

• safe-haven metals surging amid uncertainty
• rate expectations, Fed chatter, and 10-year hover
• crude softening as the real-economy signal
• tariff threats, rare earth tensions, and posturing
• soybean futures pressure vs improving North Dakota basis
• field updates on frost, foliar disease, and high winds
• government shutdown impact on payments and outlook
• cattle strength and screwworm control debate
• risk management with call re-ownership and timing

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

Tommy's Premium Subscription: www.agbull.com

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

Washington stalls while markets swing, and we map how a shutdown, China tensions, and a stronger dollar hit soybeans, sorghum, and cotton. We outline SDRP Stage Two, likely top-ups, funding routes, and why APH-based aid makes more sense than production-based payments.

• USDA reports paused and payments delayed under the shutdown
• SDRP Stage Two timing, potential top-ups beyond 35 percent
• RFS and 45Z delays and what that means for crush and SAF demand
• China’s zero U.S. soybean buys and Brazil’s expanding share
• Sorghum export losses, cotton price pressure, acreage shifts ahead
• Dollar strength as a headwind for U.S. exports
• Why APH-based aid would avoid double penalties for producers
• Long game: diversify markets, expand domestic crush capacity
• Market tape: oil on peace headlines, equities correcting, gold bid on de-dollarization

USDA farmer aid coming, but what and when?

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

Supply tightens even as front‑end cattle grow heavier and packers pace kills, creating a bullish medium‑term picture with choppy, risk‑heavy near‑term price action. We lay out why feeder highs may persist, how data gaps from the shutdown complicate decisions, and where heifer retention is starting to bite.

• counter‑seasonal decline in fed slaughter and record‑low August–September marketings
• heavier carcass weights and front‑end burdens into OND
• blended cutout rally then retracement with limited upside into holidays
• feeder highs, border closures, smaller calf crops, cheaper feed costs
• why 2014–15 comparisons fall short this cycle
• heifer retention signals and early cow herd bottoming
• government shutdown data gaps and trade flow shifts
• Brazil tariffs vs Australia/New Zealand supply
• risk management, hedging discipline, and margin awareness

Subscribe for premium access to future shows and slide decks: $25/month or $250/year. Email TG@AG Bull for today’s six slides. Call 1‑855‑737‑FARM to join the premium side.

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

Soybeans sit in a defined range with a clear midterm pivot at $10.32, while Tesla pushes a breakout path toward a higher channel target. We map the exact levels, timelines, and weekly closes that flip risk from cautious to constructive.

• continuation versus contract-specific charts and why it matters
• soybeans’ 1032 weekly pivot dropping seven cents per week
• downside magnet to 950s–970s base and timing into spring
• upside path to low 1080s on a weekly close above 1032
• Tesla’s prior breakout context and 524.64 five-year channel target
• the 469.54 near-term ceiling and 416.57 weakness trigger
• probable pullback zone 359.95–362.39 and containment logic
• practical if–then plans tied to weekly settlements
• where to watch daily chart updates on YouTube

Head over to YouTube, click on AG Bull Media, and then, of course, go over to Wicked Stocks on YouTube. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

Tommy's Premium Subscription: www.agbull.com

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

We break down how the shutdown stalls key USDA payments, why Obamacare funding is the leverage point in Congress, and what a two-phase farmer aid plan might look like. Markets absorbed a bearish stock surprise, China looms over soybean demand, and California greenlights E15 with a slow path to pumps.

• Senate rejects clean funding extension; Obamacare funding becomes leverage
• ECAP 14% paid; ARC/PLC paused; loans and disaster programs on hold
• Roughly half of the U.S. SDA staff furloughed; implementation bottlenecks
• Two-phase aid: White House trade payments first, broader economic aid later
• China purchase timing likely into next year; tariff revenue constraints
• USDA corn stocks surprise; markets show resilience amid thin data
• Possible delay of October crop report; Fed signals rate cut on softer jobs
• California approves E15; infrastructure and labeling push rollout to 2026
• Auto tariff relief chatter highlights wider trade-policy ripple effects

Call 1-855-737-FARM or visit www.agbull.com. “I got two free flags, three-by-five American-made flags we want to give away to the listeners of Wiesmeyer’s perspectives.” 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

Tommy's Premium Subscription: www.agbull.com

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

We welcome agricultural economist David Widmar from AEI.ag to unpack why corn acres keep moving west, how the corn–soy “factory” expanded, and why interest cost is the creeper crushing margins. We break down median farm income myths, the scale of solar on farmland, and fresh headlines about a proposed $10B farm aid package.

• new collaboration with AEI.ag and how we met
• lessons from Escaping 1980 and boom-bust rhymes
• corn acres shifting west and state-level patterns
• price signals that favored corn over soybeans
• the expanded corn–soy acreage “factory” capacity
• rising “other” costs: interest, insurance, electricity, repairs
• difference between accounting and economic profit
• why median farm income reads demographics, not distress
• commercial producer concentration and debt service reality
• potential $10B aid: funding paths and dilution risk
• solar projects on farmland: fast growth, small national share
• practical risk management for higher-for-longer rates

“By the way, thank you for subscribing to the Ag Bull YouTube channel.” 
“Also, if you would like a copy of these charts, just email us, TG at AG Bull.”

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

Tommy's Premium Subscription: www.agbull.com

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

Record-tight feeder supplies meet record-heavy carcass weights and a falling cutout, creating a tense setup where front-end inventories swell just as seasonal patterns should ease. We unpack the Mexico border closure, regional cash spreads, demand risk at record retail prices, and the surprise shift in futures positioning.

• impact of Mexican border closure on feeder supplies
• divergence between Southern Plains and Northern on-feed inventories
• placements down, marketings down, front-end supplies up
• record carcass weights and feeder leverage erosion
• blended cutout’s sharp August rally and September slide
• Nebraska premium flipping to a discount versus Kansas
• consumer demand at record retail beef prices
• hogs open interest topping cattle and what it implies
• cheaper feed from larger corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies
• macro overhang from a possible government shutdown

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

We track Iowa’s move from a quiet August into a real selling season, where auction volume doubles and pricing barely flinches despite cheaper corn and higher costs. We dig into why equity-rich owners keep the floor firm, who’s under pressure, and how stimulus chatter could ripple through rents and bids.

• August to September shift in auction volume
• How more acres “test” price stability
• Mitchell County sale at $24,400 per acre
• Minimal year-to-date price decline despite lower corn
• Drivers of listings: divorce and financial stress
• Why stress volumes remain small and get absorbed
• 84% of Iowa farmland with no debt
• The haves vs have-nots among operators
• Cash rents holding steady against rising inputs
• Potential effects of stimulus and a federal shutdown
• How to access Land Talker Monthly and Land Hero
• Land Talker TV interviews and upcoming content

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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

Tommy's Premium Subscription: www.agbull.com

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

Farmers face financial hardship as a government shutdown looms while simultaneously promising relief payments through tariff funds known as "Trump Bucks." The situation highlights the dysfunctional relationship between agricultural policy and political gridlock in Washington.

• Government likely to shut down at midnight Tuesday due to lack of agreement on continuing resolution
• Administration proposes using tariff funds for direct farmer payments, but requires congressional approval
• Section 32 funds (30% of tariff revenues) typically used for commodity purchases for nutrition programs
• Cattle markets experienced extreme volatility after comments about potential heifer retention incentives
• Argentina temporarily lowered export taxes, causing China to purchase 35 loads of soybeans
• Basis levels vary widely across regions, from 80 cents under in southern Minnesota to $1.60 under in North Dakota
• Harvest beginning in northern regions with favorable weather and good yield expectations
• Government shutdown would delay all agricultural reports including the upcoming stocks report
• Commodity markets showing potential inflationary signals as gold approaches $4,000 and silver hits $45-46
• Farmers would prefer market-based solutions like year-round E15 rather than direct payments

Sign up for our weekly e-newsletter FarmNut News at rrfn.com for ongoing updates on agricultural policy and markets.

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits. 

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.

Tommy's Premium Subscription: www.agbull.com

AgBull Audio and Video Links

Apple Music

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

Trade policy tensions create ripple effects across agricultural markets as Trump promises aid while China boycotts U.S. farm products. Secretary Rollins presents a five-part agricultural plan while a potential government shutdown threatens to disrupt essential services.

• Trump promises aid to farmers as a "bridge" until tariff policies take effect, though amount and timing remain unspecified
• Treasury Department's $20 billion bond swap with Argentina inadvertently facilitated China's purchase of 35 vessels of Argentine soybeans instead of American ones
• USDA Secretary Rollins announces $2 billion in "top-up" payments through ECAP, increasing allocation factor from 85% to 99%
• Rollins firmly states no plans for direct payments to the beef cattle industry to avoid market distortion
• Potential government shutdown would allow mandatory farm payments to continue but would prevent October crop production reports
• Input costs remain a major concern with fertilizers up 37%, fuel 32%, labor 47%, and interest payments 73% since 2020
• Food prices continue to rise, particularly beef, adding pressure on consumers and contributing to inflation concerns
• Gold, oil, and agricultural commodities show strength, potentially signaling inflationary pressures ahead

Visit [email protected] to receive Jim's agriculture policy newsletter.

Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.