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Episode #1050: A record number of U.S. consumers are skipping auto loans over rejection fears, EV history unfolded as BYD overtook Tesla in Europe and Google’s I/O 2025 keynote was a full-court press on AI innovation.

Show Notes with links:

• Consumer confidence in securing an auto loan is slipping fast. A recent survey by the New York Fed shows a record number of people aren’t even applying—because they assume they’ll be turned down. It’s a new high in pessimism.
  • 34% of potential borrowers didn’t apply for an auto loan in February due to fear of rejection—the highest since tracking began in 2014.
  • Loan rejection rates hit 14%, a major jump from just 1.5% a year ago.
  • Only 9.9% of consumers expect to apply for a loan in the next year, down from October's 11%.
  • Just 63% believe they could handle a $2,000 emergency expense—also a record low.
  • “The SCE Credit Access Survey points to an expected future tightening in credit conditions,” said the New York Fed.
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• China's BYD outsells Tesla in Europe for first time, report says | Reuters
• In a milestone moment for the European EV market, Chinese automaker BYD has outsold Tesla for the first time.
  • BYD logged 7,231 BEV registrations in Europe in April, topping Tesla’s 7,165—marking its first lead ever in the region.
  • The Chinese brand only expanded beyond Norway and the Netherlands in late 2022 but is now gaining fast.
  • Tesla faces pressure from a 13% Q1 sales dip, factory retools for the Model Y, and delayed rollouts of lower-cost trims.
  • Chinese-made EV registrations jumped 59% year-over-year in April despite EU tariffs.
  • “This is a watershed moment for Europe’s car market,” said Felipe Munoz of market research firm JATO Analytics.

• Google's I/O 2025 keynote was packed with AI firepower. From shopping with chatbots to making movies with prompts, Google is putting generative AI front and center. Here’s a quick recap of the announcements:
  • Gemini’s “AI Mode” is rolling out to all U.S. users, blending search, shopping, and smart summarization.
  • Project Starline evolves into “Google Beam,” bringing 3D video chat to HP-branded hardware.
  • New AI filmmaking app “Flow” uses Imagen, Veo, and Gemini to create 8-second video clips from prompts.
  • Project Aura introduces Android XR smart glasses co-developed with Xreal and eyewear brands like Warby Parker.
  • “We are shipping faster than ever,” said Google CEO Sundar Pichai, highlighting the company's accelerated pace in AI development.
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Episode #1049: Today we’re diving into Toyota’s bold software move with the redesigned RAV4 Hybrid, watching Tesla and Waymo duel for robotaxi dominance, and seeing how Home Depot is holding the line on prices as tariffs rattle retail

Show Notes with links:

• Toyota’s sixth-gen RAV4 Hybrid isn’t just sleeker—it’s smarter. As the first model to feature the all-new Arene operating system, the global bestseller is now a testbed for Toyota’s software-first future.
  • Arene is built by Woven by Toyota, the automaker’s in-house software arm and made up of three core components: Arene SDK (to build apps and features), Arene Tools (to virtually test them), and Arene Data (to collect and use real-world driver feedback).
  • In practice, that means Toyota can push OTA updates that improve safety systems like Toyota Safety Sense 4.0 based on global user data, often updating every few weeks or months, mirroring how smartphone OS updates roll out.
  • The SDK powers the new voice agent and center display; the data system creates a feedback loop that improves regional performance by learning from users in 180 countries.
  • “Software can be an added layer where we can evolve the car over time,” said Woven CTO John Absmeier. “We help your Toyota grow old with you.”

• Tesla and Waymo are tackling robotaxis from different angles—Tesla with bold camera-only tech, and Waymo with sensor-packed precision. But a real-world test in San Francisco handed one of them a clear win.
  • Waymo’s service, active since 2024, uses 29 cameras, 5 lidars, and 6 radars in Jaguar I-PACEs.
  • Tesla’s FSD Supervised software, tested in a Model 3, relies solely on eight external cameras—with its FSD Unsupervised version launching in Austin next month.
  • On winding SF roads from Twin Peaks to Chase Center, both systems performed well—until Tesla's FSD ran a red light at a busy intersection.
  • The Waymo delivered a confident, human-like ride, including a lane change that “seemed like it was just tired of waiting.”
  • “It's got New York cab driver energy,” said tester Alistair Barr of Waymo’s proactive driving style.

• As tariffs squeeze the retail sector, Home Depot is leaning into its U.S.-based supply chain and scale advantage to keep prices steady—even as competitors like Walmart warn of price hikes.
  • Over half of Home Depot’s inventory is sourced domestically, with imports on the decline.
  • CFO Richard McPhail says no single foreign country will represent more than 10% of purchases within 12 months.
  • Q1 2025 revenue rose 9.4% to $39.9B, with average transaction values ticking up slightly to $90.71.
  • The company saw 394.8 million transactions, a 2.1% increase year-over-year.
  • “We saw continued customer engagement across smaller projects,” said CEO Ted Decker.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1048: Today we’re diving into Honda’s EV strategy rethink and dealer drama in California, a mid-May dip in wholesale used vehicle prices, and the growing reality that side hustles aren’t just extra—they’re essential.

• Honda is pumping the brakes on its aggressive EV strategy, cutting EV R&D investment by 30% and slashing its 2030 EV sales forecast by more than 1 million vehicles. Instead, hybrids are back in the spotlight.
  • Honda now expects just 700,000 to 750,000 EVs sold in 2030, down from 2 million.
  • EV R&D cut from ¥10T ($69B) to ¥7T ($48B); with 13 next-gen hybrid models to debut starting 2027 with improved fuel economy and cost.
  • “It has become increasingly clear that the environmental regulations... are becoming relaxed. I think the EV penetration period will be pushed back by about 5-6 years.” said CEO Toshihiro Mibe.
    • Meanwhile, California’s dealer association has issued a cease and desist letter to Sony Honda Mobility, challenging their direct-to-consumer sales strategy for the Afeela 1 EV.
    • American Honda claims no role in Sony Honda Mobility's sales plans.

• Wholesale used-vehicle prices dipped in the first half of May, giving back some of April’s unusually strong gains. The market shows signs of normalization, even as demand for used vehicles remains steady.
  • The Manheim Index fell to 205.9, down 1.1% from April but still up 4.4% YoY.
  • Three-year-old vehicles depreciated less than average, down just 0.6%.
  • Luxury and SUV segments led YoY gains; compact cars were the only group to decline.
  • EVs rose 2.0% YoY but saw a 2.0% drop vs April, steeper than non-EVs.
  • “As the tariff situation evolves and the frenzy of buying activity for new vehicles calms down, we expect wholesale pricing trends to remain more normal through Q2,” said Cox Automotive’s Jeremy Robb.

• Side hustles aren’t just a way to save for that vacation anymore—they’re becoming an economic necessity for many Americans. With living costs rising and economic uncertainty looming, millions are turning to extra work just to stay afloat.
  • 44% of Americans now report having a side hustle; 43% of them rely on it to pay for basic living expenses.
  • Bankrate data shows 71% earn under $500/month, with only 9% making over $2,000.
  • Top gigs include web design, video editing, ride-hailing, delivery driving, and even voiceover work.
  • Some are using side gigs to build AI-proof income streams in trades, tutoring, or specialized services.
  • NetCredit reports AI-based gigs on Fiverr average $44.50/day—low but growing fast.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1047: Kia’s veteran apprenticeship program is creating certified techs and stronger stores, while “American-made” is a lot harder to accomplish than it sounds. Plus, OpenAI is taking on software engineering with a new update.

Show Notes with links:

• Kia America’s Veterans Technician Apprenticeship Program is helping dealers find, train, and retain top-tier tech talent by giving veterans a fast path to certification—and the results are showing up in the service drive.
  • Launched in 2023, the program combines mentorship, on-the-job training, and a 30-day certification bootcamp.
  • Approved by the DOL and VA, it offers tax credits and GI Bill stipends to offset dealer costs.
  • 462 Kia dealerships have enrolled; 278 veterans—including 16 women—have been hired so far.
  • Participating stores report higher appointment volume, productivity, and lower tech turnover.
  • Speaking about program graduate Caleb Samsel, Anthony Catalanotto of Generation Auto Group said “He’s a leader. He says the right things. He does the right things. He’s always in his uniform. He’s always working hard. If someone can’t figure something out, he’s right with them.”

• Despite political pressure and patriotic branding, building a truly American-made vehicle is still more fantasy than factory reality. Ford’s latest Expedition highlights just how global even U.S.-assembled vehicles remain.
  • The Expedition is assembled in Kentucky, but only 58% of its parts are North American, with key components like engines and semiconductors still coming from overseas.
  • Automakers say sourcing 90% U.S. content could raise vehicle prices $10K–$20K, pricing out many buyers.
  • Past vehicles reached 90%+ U.S./Canada content; today’s tech and globalization make that rare.
  • “We can move everything to the U.S., but if every Ford is $50,000, we’re not going to win,” said Ford CEO Jim Farley.

• OpenAI is expanding its capabilities in one of AI’s most competitive frontiers: software engineering. Its new Codex agent is designed to handle complex coding tasks autonomously and at scale.
  • Codex performs tasks like writing code, fixing bugs, running tests, and reviewing codebases.
  • Built on the new codex-1 model, optimized from OpenAI’s o3 reasoning architecture.
  • Available to ChatGPT Pro, Team, and Enterprise users during a research preview.
  • Competitors like Anthropic’s Sonnet models still lead developer adoption, but the field is evolving quickly.
  • “It is a fundamentally new way of working,” said OpenAI VP of Engineering Srinivas Narayanan.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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We're live from Friday morning at ASOTU CON.

Last night, we closed with a keynote that shared our stories of how we got into the industry, and encouraged the industry to go and be leaders in their stores and communities.

THANK YOU to everyone who came up to us and shared your story, and shared your hope for the future.

This industry is built different.

See you Monday!

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Welcome to Day 2 at ASOTU CON!

Paul, Kyle and Michael recap Day 1 and talk about some of the things they've overheard on the show floor and on stages.

Day 2 is shaping up to be amazing! See you tomorrow!

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Paul, Kyle and Michael hit the Content Corner to record a quick show before ASOTU CON 2025 kicks off officially. Follow all the action on social media!

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1043: We’re coming to you live from ASOTU CON 25! Today we’re diving into Volkswagen and Uber’s plan to launch ID. Buzz robotaxis by 2026, TikTok’s surprising power in driving car sales, and what it all means for the future of mobility and marketing. 

Show Notes with links:

• Volkswagen and Uber are teaming up to bring self-driving ID. Buzz microbuses to U.S. streets. Testing starts this year, with full-scale deployment in Los Angeles by 2026.
  • The electric, retro-styled ID. Buzz will serve as the vehicle for Uber’s upcoming autonomous ride-hail service.
  • Human-supervised testing begins in 2025, with LA as the launch city and national rollout planned.
  • VW’s MOIA subsidiary will handle the autonomous tech and platform integration.
  • The deal aligns with VW’s push into urban mobility and Uber’s interest in expanding robotaxi options.
  • “Volkswagen is not just a car manufacturer—we are shaping the future of mobility,” said VW’s Christian Senger.
• TikTok’s latest whitepaper dives deep into how the platform influences car buying decisions, debunking the myth that it’s just for dances and pranks. With affluent users and a cultural grip, TikTok is revving its engine as a legit force in automotive marketing.
  • TikTok drives 9.4% of all digital-driven inquiries despite a smaller ad spend.
  • Outperforms other digital channels with 90% higher ROI vs. online video and 12% better than other digital platforms.
  • Full-funnel campaigns see 14% more inquiries and 62% better efficiency with longer, balanced spends.
  • TikTok’s cultural influence makes or breaks brand equity, especially post-sale.
  • “A brand’s failure to fulfill its promises in this post-purchase phase can hurt brand equity seven times more than a positive encounter can benefit it.”

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Today Paul is the last man standing in the studio as the entire crew is on their way to ASOTU CON 2025. He sets the stage of what to expect over the next week and tells you how to be a part of the event even if you can't be there this year. 

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/

Shoot us a Text.

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/

JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/