Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 11/01/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the recent jobs report, with Professor Siegel noting that while the labor market shows signs of slowing, it remains strong enough to avoid immediate recession concerns. They also talk about potential Fed rate cuts and Siegel’s view that bond market conditions may reflect defensiveness around political uncertainties ahead of the election. (16:00) Jeremy is joined by WisdomTree colleagues Sam Rines, Chris Gannatti, and Jeff Weniger to discuss upcoming election implications for markets, insights from recent earnings, and the outlook for China. They cover sector-specific earnings impacts, especially within tech, automotive, and real estate, and examine evolving investor sentiment towards China. The conversation wraps with insights on AI investment trends and the importance of data security uses of AI in financial data, and his venture investments in early-stage tech companies.

Guest: Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product.

Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space

Jeff Weniger, CFA serves as Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. In his role, Weniger helps to formulate the firm’s stock market outlook by assessing macro and fundamental trends. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director, Senior Strategist at BMO, where he worked in the office of the CIO from 2006 to 2017. He served on the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee and co-managed the firm’s ETF model portfolios for both the U.S. and Canada. In 2013, at the age of 32, Jeff was chosen as the youngest member of BMO’s Global Investment Forum, which collected the firm’s top global strategists to formulate the firm’s official long-term outlook for investment trends and markets.

Follow Sam Rines on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines

Follow Chri Gannatti on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines

Follow Jeff Weiniger on X: https://x.com/JeffWeniger

Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 10/25/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel cover recent economic trends, highlighting a slight drop in jobless claims and strong third-quarter GDP forecasts. Professor Siegel notes market stability, a potential November Fed rate pause, and rising bond yields driven by election dynamics. (11:10) Jeremy continues with guest Howard Lindzon, co-founder of StockTwits and Social Leverage. They discuss the evolving “degenerate economy,” meme coins, and the role of companies like Google, Robinhood, and Coinbase in this speculative market space. Lindzon also shares insights on StockTwits’ growth, future uses of AI in financial data, and his venture investments in early-stage tech companies.

Guest: Howard Lindzon is a Canadian Author, financial analyst, technical analyst and super angel investor. Lindzon manages a hedge fund, serves as managing partner of the holding company Social Leverage, limited partner at Knight's Bridge Capital Partners, and is the co-founder of StockTwits.

Follow Howard on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/howardlindzon

StockTwits: https://stocktwits.com/

Social Leverage:https://www.socialleverage.com

Show from 10/18/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel discuss the latest market trends, starting with strong retail sales, the bond yield increases, and a solid third-quarter GDP outlook. Siegel highlights positive productivity growth and deposit expansion, suggesting that the neutral interest rate might be higher than expected. He also comments on upcoming midterm elections and their potential market impact. (10:00) Jeremy then turns to guest Phil Huber, Head of Portfolio Solutions at Cliffwater, who shares insights on the growing role of alternative investments. They delve into private markets, private debt, and the increasing interest in alternatives for portfolios, emphasizing the importance of diversification, liquidity management, and manager selection in these areas.

Guest: As both a wealth management practitioner and an investment-industry thought leader, Phil Huber, CFA, CFP®, is uniquely qualified in helping investors design, implement, and stick with evidence-based portfolios built to fulfill long-term financial goals and objectives. Phil is the Head of Portfolio Solutions for Cliffwater, a leading alternative investment adviser and fund manager. Prior to joining Cliffwater in 2024, Phil was the Chief Investment Officer for Savant Wealth Management, a multi-billion dollar wealth management firm. Phil has been involved in the financial services industry since 2007. He earned a bachelor’s degree in finance from the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. He is a member of the CFA Society of Chicago. He is the author of The Allocator’s Edge: A Modern Guide to Alternative Investments and the Future of Diversification. Phil has been featured by a number of media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, InvestmentNews, CityWire RIA Magazine, and Bloomberg TV.

Follow Phil on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-huber

More Insights from Cliffwater: https://www.cliffwater.com/Insights

Direct Lending for the Long Run: https://www.cliffwater.com/ResourceArticle?docId=23740

Cliffwater Direct Lending Index:

https://www.cliffwaterdirectlendingindex.com/

Show from 10/11/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest inflation data, particularly focusing on the CPI, PPI, and jobless claims. Professor Siegel expresses mixed reactions, noting improvements in the PPI but concerns about other inflation indicators like car insurance and housing costs. He also mentions the market's resilience and optimism despite weaker data, particularly regarding inflation and jobless claims, and forecasts potential future Fed rate cuts. (9:00) Jeremy is then joined by Anna Rathbun, Chief Investment Officer at CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, who discusses the firm’s broad services and her perspective on economic data, including small business employment and inflation volatility. Rathbun emphasizes the uncertainty of the economic trajectory, explains the firm’s approach to portfolio construction, and shares insights into global markets, highlighting opportunities in India and Japan while cautioning against China. She also offers thoughts on U.S. geopolitical resilience and the potential for recession-driven tax policy shifts.

Guest: Anna is the chief investment officer for CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CBIZ IAS), a Registered Investment Advisory firm. Anna is responsible for overseeing the investment activities of CBIZ IAS through the CBIZ national Investment Committee. She helps to set the direction of the firm as a member of the Executive Committee.

Learn more about Anna at: https://www.cbiz.com/about-us/employee-directory/employee-details/anna-j-rathbun

Follow Anna on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anna-rathbun-cfa-caia-aa561689

Show from 10/04/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel open this week’s episode discussing the strong market report, noting gains in productivity despite a decline in hours worked, and the potential for a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed. Professor Siegel highlights the recalibration of long-term interest rates, predicting they may settle around 4-4.5%, and emphasizes the lowered risk of recession. (12:00) Jeremy is then joined by Yashwant Bajaj, founder and CIO of Four Ships Asset Management, for a special tribute to Ken Taheny, who tragically passed away. The conversation covers the outlook for Japan, its managed yen depreciation, and its geopolitical positioning in the global supply chain, particularly in semiconductors and other strategic sectors. Yashwant also shares insights into Japan's potential industrial revitalization and the challenges and opportunities facing the country.

Learn more about Yashwant at: https://www.four-ships.com/

Follow Yashwant on LinkedIn: https://sg.linkedin.com/in/yashwant-bajaj-68433053

Show from 09/27/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel discuss the latest market data, focusing on US economic indicators and the impact of monetary policy. Professor Siegel highlights the increase in M2 money supply, home price trends, and the PCE deflator, suggesting the Fed may continue to lower rates. He shares his outlook on the 10-year treasury yield, China's economic stimulus, and Japanese equities before signing off. (10:00) Jeremy continues with guest Tom Morgan, who shares insights from his experience on Wall Street, his interest in human behavior, and his transition to a more holistic approach to decision-making. Tom discusses the impact of left versus right brain dominance on investing and personal life, emphasizing the importance of balance and intuition. He also talks about his network, the Leading Edge, where he helps people explore new identities and enhance their intuitive decision-making.

Guest: Tom Morgan is a former financier and founder of The Leading Edge, a media platform and transformational community dedicated to sharing world-changing ideas and facilitating life-changing experiences.

Learn more about Tom at: https://www.theleading-edge.org/

Follow Tom on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-morgan-3a619372

Show from 09/20/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discussed the recent Federal Reserve meeting, with Professor Siegel expressing surprise that the Fed didn't raise rates by a quarter point despite strong data. He explained the Fed's recalibration in its approach, focusing on reaching the long-run neutral rate, which he estimates is around 3.5%. He also shared his expectations for gradual rate cuts over the next year and the potential impacts on stocks and bonds. (19:00) Jeremy continues with Alejandro Lopez-Lira from the University of Florida, who shares insights on his recent research using AI for stock prediction. They discuss the implications of large language models like ChatGPT on financial forecasting and market efficiency. Alejandro also talks about his new book, "The Predictive Edge," and delves into how AI and machine learning can enhance traditional financial models and portfolio strategies.

Guest: Alejandro Lopez-Lira is an Assistant professor of Finance at Warrington College of Business, University of Florida. He holds a PhD in Finance from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. His research covers topics in Empirical Asset Pricing, Machine Learning and Textual Analysis.

Learn more about Alejandro at: https://alejandrolopezlira.site/

Follow Alejandro on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alejandro-lopez-lira-239525a9?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F

Show from 09/13/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss this week’s market movements, highlighting the implications of recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Professor Siegel emphasizes his expectation for a series of gradual rate cuts over the coming months, expressing concerns about the Fed’s pace of adjustments. (15:00) Jeremy continues the conversation with Wharton Professor Chris Geczy, who shares his insights on inflation, market dynamics, and his experiences with the intersection of AI and investment management. They delve into the implications of fiscal policy, the evolving role of AI in finance, and the importance of diversified investment strategies in today’s market environment.

Guest: Chris Geczy has been on the Finance Department faculty at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania since 1997. He is Academic Director of the Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research. He is also Academic Director of the Wharton Wealth Management Initiative at Wharton Executive Education. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and a Ph.D. in finance and econometrics from the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago (now the Booth School).

Learn more about Chris at: https://fnce.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/geczy/

Follow Chris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-geczy-ph-d-a69114

Show from 09/06/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest jobs report, noting it was weaker than expected but not disastrous. Professor Siegel also highlights concerns about the Fed being behind the curve, the impact of rising rates on the bond market, and his view on where the Fed funds rate should be. (12:47) Jeremy continues with guest Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Advisory Group, who shares insights on the economic impact of prolonged high rates and concerns about weakening market leadership. The conversation covers topics such as gold, central bank reserves, the challenges and opportunities in emerging markets, particularly Asia, and the risks surrounding U.S. debt and deficits. Peter emphasizes the importance of commodities in a diversified portfolio and the potential shifts in market leadership in the current macroeconomic climate.

Guest: Peter is the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, a $8B wealth management firm. He is also Editor of The Boock Report. He previously was the Chief Market Analyst for The Lindsey Group, a macro economic and market research firm started by Larry Lindsey. Prior to this, Peter spent a brief time at Omega Advisors, a New York-based hedge fund, as a macro analyst and portfolio manager. Before this, he was an employee and partner at Miller Tabak + Co for 18 years where he was recently the equity strategist and a portfolio manager with Miller Tabak Advisors. Peter graduated Magna Cum Laude with a B.B.A. in Finance from George Washington University.

Learn more about Peter at: https://www.cnbc.com/peter-boockvar/

Follow Peter on X(Twitter): @pboockvar

Show from 08/30/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market data, including recent jobless claims, the inflation outlook, and upcoming Fed decisions. Professor Siegel emphasizes the need for the Fed to lower rates to avoid unnecessary recession risks and comments on the stable but unimpressive economic performance. (09:08) Jeremy continues the discussion with guests Richard Oller and Jake Hollinger, who share insights on the real estate market, including rental trends stabilizing post-pandemic, the impact of interest rates on property valuations, and the challenges of negative leverage. They also explore the broader supply-demand dynamics in housing, potential policy solutions for affordability, and the evolving cultural shift towards renting over homeownership.

Guests: Richard, a lawyer by training, in 1985 founded the Wentworth Group (now First Service Residential) which over the next 15 years grew into one of the largest residential real estate management firms in the United States. In 2004 Richard aligned with his current partner, Jeffrey Goldstein, sharing the helm at Multifamily Management Services and Affiliates (MMS) and GoldOller.

As a founding member of GoldOller Real Estate Investments, LLC, Jakes serves as President and Chief Operating Officer. In this role, Jake directs new investments for the Goldoller portfolio and oversees management operations for all investments. Jake has over 15 years of experience working with real estate investments in acquisitions, development, finance, and management.

Learn more about Richard at: https://goldoller.com/the-go-team/

Learn more about Jake at: https://goldoller.com/the-go-team/

Follow Jake on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/bill-miller-cfa-a421075