Show from 11/17/23

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss their views on the Fed and inflation this week. CPI and PPI came in below expectation. The Prof states the economy is not falling apart but it should be watched closely. He believes the Fed should avoid raising interest rates at this time. Brian joins in to state he agrees with the Prof and to ask him about GDP and if productivity will help grow the trend. (9:32) Jeremy continues his conversation with Brian as they begin by discussing small cap value opportunities and what he does at Schafer-Cullen Capital. Brian gets into detail on why small caps generally outperform over the long term which benefits their portfolios. Jeremy asks Brian about small cap risks and where flows are headed. Brian talks about the outlook of real estate, the housing market and the love of consumer spending. Brian finishes by talking about utilities, his founder's book and an overview on the future of Schafer-Cullen.

Guest: Brian Drubetsky joined the Firm in 2013 and currently serves as the Firm's Co-Portfolio Manager on the Small Cap Value Equity strategy and is a member of the Investment Team. Previously, he was a Research Analyst at Manatuck Hill Partners and a Research Consultant at Spencer Capital, both long-short equity hedge funds. He also held Associate positions at Neuberger Berman and KPMG. Brian received his M.B.A. from Columbia Business School in 2009 where he participated in the Value Investing Program and graduated magna cum laude from George Washington University in 2002 with a B.B.A.

Learn more about Brian: https://www.cullenfunds.com/Brian-Drubetsky/

Follow Brian on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/brian-drubetsky-494a692

Show from 11/10/23

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week by discussing the Profs views on current market activity. He mentions some noteworthy changes in the job market, a jump in inflationary expectations, and which reports to watch for next week. He says it is way too early to predict what will happen in December. (5:59) Richard Bernstein joins the Professor and Jeremy at The Union League in Philadelphia to discuss many facets of the market today. Key topics from the interview include the equity risk premium, stocks versus bonds, small caps, what sectors RBA likes, and bond portfolios. Richard talks about where his firm stands and how they construct their portfolios. Richard states globalization is contracting and that the United States future lies in becoming independent again. They also discuss AI and long term interest set by the government.

Guest: Richard Bernstein is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC. As CIO, Mr. Bernstein is a member of the firm's Investment Committee which manages multi-asset, global equity, and fixed income ETF strategies for financial advisors and institutions.

Learn more about Richard: https://www.rbadvisors.com/our-people/

Follow Richard on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/richardbernstein

Show from 11/03/23

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week with a current market overview. Professor Siegel states that the market didn’t fare too well for lower rates. He goes over the current labor market report which has dropped. He discusses Powell and the market increases and decreases. The Professor confirms he still believes there is no fear of a recession. Productivity rebound could reverse the current market state. (10:01) Paul and Tim join Jeremy today to discuss the banks. Paul talks about TARP 2.0 and his view on troubled asset release programs. Tim joins the discussion adding his view on the current banking industry and where Fed funds are going. They talk about Fed loan programs, extensions and Fed insensitivity to the banking system. Tim covers risks related to interest rates and the differences between today and the past. Paul talks about what he does at Bridge Tree Partners and his day to day goals. Tim and Paul discuss their views on small and large banks.

Guests: Paul Graham is a programmer, writer, and investor. In 1995, he and Robert Morris started Viaweb, the first software as a service company. Viaweb was acquired by Yahoo in 1998, where it became Yahoo Store. In 2001 he started publishing essays on paulgraham.com, which now gets around 25 million page views per year. In 2005 he and Jessica Livingston, Robert Morris, and Trevor Blackwell started Y Combinator, the first of a new type of startup incubator. Since 2005 Y Combinator has funded over 3000 startups, including Airbnb, Dropbox, Stripe, and Reddit. In 2019 he published a new Lisp dialect written in itself called Bel.

Tim Coffey was a Vice President and Research Analyst at FIG Partners LLC, a premier investment banking and research firm specializing in community banks. Before joining FIG Partners, Tim was a Research Analyst at Green Street Capital Management. Prior to that, he covered the banking industry for several business publications in San Diego, California. Tim has more than 20 years of financial services experience. Tim received a B.A. degree in Economics from San Diego State University and both an M.B.A. degree and an M.S. degree in Financial Analysis from the University of San Francisco.

Learn more about Paul: http://www.paulgraham.com/bio.html

Learn more about Tim: https://www.janney.com/meet-janney/people/timothy-coffey

Follow Paul on Twitter: @paulg

Follow Tim on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timothy-n-coffey-a4857b7

Show from 10/27/23

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start this week's discussion with mixed reactions. The market data is still strong this week according to the Professor. He mentions that the money supply is showing weakness and could be of concern for robust economic growth. He notes that agreements with car manufacturing companies will help keep plants running. He talks about the new speaker elected by the government and how that will affect the market. Michael joins the professor, discussing wage increases and inflation. (16:00) Jeremy continues on with Michael to discuss his career and his current role at Simplify. Michael goes into detail on what Simplify does and the irony of their company name. They discuss EFTs, betting on high rates, and the real estate market. Michael talks about the complexity of bonds changing allocations. He discusses his opinion on option market day trading and the futures market. Jeremy asks Michael about macro strategies and how he positions portfolios at Simplify. He also talks about the high yield market, credit default swaps, and the index.

Guest: Michael Green joined Simplify in April 2021 after serving as Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Logica Capital Advisers, LLC. Prior to Logica, Michael managed macro strategies at Thiel Macro, LLC. Michael founded Ice Farm Capital, a discretionary global macro hedge fund seeded by Soros Fund Management. From 2006-2014, Michael founded and managed the New York office of Canyon Capital Advisors, a $23B multi-strategy hedge fund based in Los Angeles, CA, where he established their global macro strategies, managing in excess of $5B of exposure across equity, credit, FX, commodity and derivative markets. Michael has been noted for his work as a public speaker and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.

Learn more about Michael: https://www.simplify.us/leadership#!michael-green-cfa

Follow Michael on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/michael-green-9a15142

Show from 10/20/23

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin by summarizing current rate reports that are being released. Professor Siegel doesn't think The Fed will raise rates on November 1st. Mid December will bring new unemployment rate reports to watch for. He states there may be some caution going into the fourth quarter but nothing serious yet due to interest rates. The market is under pressure but he thinks the stronger economy will bring in stronger earnings. Jack asks the Professor about bonds and at what point are the rates attractive as a long term investment. (11:00) Dave Goodson joins Jeremy Schwarts and Jack Farley as they discuss the Professor's thoughts. Dave goes in depth on his current view of the market. Jeremy asks about option adjusted spreads and if the government dysfunction contributes to lack of confidence. The group discusses real estate markets and the credit risks associated with it. Dave talks about the riskiest sections of the market right now and where he thinks the best return would be. They cover the current state of banking and the opportunities that came from the latest banking crisis.

Guest: Jack Farley covers traditional finance markets as the host of "Forward Guidance". Jack previously worked at Bloomberg, Dealbreaker, and Real Vision, where he hosted over 100 long-form interviews with investors, analysts, and financial professionals. Jack graduated from Brown University with a degree in economics, and lives in NYC.

Dave Goodson is a managing director, head of securitized fixed income and a senior portfolio manager for non-agency and agency mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities strategies at Voya Investment Management. Prior to joining Voya, he was a principal at an independent investment bank focused on asset-backed commercial paper transactions. Previously, Dave began his career as a vice president in Wachovia Securities’ asset-backed finance group, marketing and executing securitizations for the bank’s corporate clients. He earned a BS in management from the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Learn more about Jack: https://blockworks.co/speaker/jack-farley

Learn more about Dave: https://institutional.voya.com/investment-capabilities/single-sector/securitized-credit

Follow Jack on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jack-farley-40b394112

Follow Dave on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/david-goodson-7146245

Show from 10/13/23

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the economic uncertainties, such as rising inflation, geopolitical risks, and potential government shutdowns. Professor Siegel believes that while there are warning signs, the data does not indicate an imminent recession, attributing low unemployment claims and expected seasonal economic boosts as positive signs. He also argues that inflation is better than official numbers suggest, citing alternative metrics considering lagging factors like housing costs in the CPI calculation. (12:22) Samuel Rimes agrees with Professor Siegel that the Fed is unlikely to change rates soon due to volatile data points affecting monetary policy. On the topic of energy and inflation, Rimes highlights how the global energy landscape has evolved significantly, allowing for quick shifts in supply chains, and notes that U.S. oil production has been surprisingly robust due to technological advances, which is keeping oil prices lower than one might expect given current geopolitical tensions. They discuss how temporary external pressures like deficits and liquidity should be watched. Regarding margins and investment strategies, Samuel points out that cost benefits arise from improved supply chains and moderated costs in commodities and labor.

Guest:

Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed.

Follow him on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samuelerines

Follow him on Twitter: @SamuelRines

Show from 10/06/23

Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz with his weekly review of the current market. They cover the most recent jobs report and the strength it’s suggesting. Prof. Siegel thinks that the only real hurt will be felt in the housing market. He doesn’t believe there will be a rate hike in November. They also talk about this weeks big drop in oil. He states that real GDP growth looks stronger going into 2024. (9:22) Daniel and Anton join Jeremy with Daniel starting off by talking about the increase in rates and the strength in the market. They discuss the impact AI technology will have on the increased productivity rates over the next 10 years. Jeremy asks them both how new technology will impact the inequality gap. They discuss roadblocks being experienced in increasing AI technology production. They talk about robotics and advancements in similar areas as AI grows. Jeremy brings up the topic of disruptive technology and how advancements can in fact hurt workers. They finish by talking about the government policies surrounding these tech enterprises.

Guests: Professor Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His research is on the economic effects of digital technologies, with a particular emphasis on the economics of artificial intelligence. He has recently worked on studies addressing the types of occupations that are most exposed to machine learning, measuring the value of AI skill sets to employer firms, and adjusting productivity measurement to include investments in intangible assets. His research has been published in various academic journals and featured in outlets such as The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Harvard Business Review, and Sloan Management Review. Much of his work involves applying cutting-edge data science techniques to analyze datasets from financial market data sources, online resume sites, and job postings.

Anton Korinek is a Professor at the University of Virginia, Department of Economics and Darden School of Business as well as a Nonresident Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Research Associate at the NBER, a Research Fellow at the CEPR and the Economics of AI Lead at the Centre for the Governance of AI. He received his PhD from Columbia University in 2007 after several years of work experience in the IT and financial sectors. He has also worked at Johns Hopkins and at the University of Maryland and has been a visiting scholar at Harvard University, the World Bank, the IMF, the BIS and numerous central banks.

Learn more at: https://oid.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/rockdi/#

https://www.korinek.com/

Follow Daniel on Twitter: @danielrock

Follow Anton on Twitter: @akorinek

Show from 9/29/23

Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz beginning with some more data this week on the market. He feels the economy is doing very well, especially after the trade report came out. A government slowdown may challenge the strength of the market, but the numbers are strong. He talks about his article on Barron’s. They dive into the future of housing and the job market as well. (10:11) Howe joins Jeremy to talk about the private market index and the group he’s a part of that makes data a bit easier to attain. The index is updated once a week for anyone to view. He discusses the ability to compare the private and public markets using these reports. Howe explains how they chose who to include on their index and why. Howe and Jeremy discuss the private market's current state and how it compares to the public market. He explains how transactions are made through Forge as well as who the buyers typically are using the platform. Howe talks about vision for what this index can do in the future.

Guest: Howe Ng leads data and analytics at Forge overseeing the research & development of market insights, investment research and product analytics. Howe has more than 18 years of buy-side institutional asset management experience. He previously held roles in systematic active equity portfolio management and ETF product strategy at BlackRock and additional leadership roles at Nipun Capital and Barclays Global Investors.

Learn more at: https://forgeglobal.com/

Follow Howe on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/howeng

Show from 9/22/23

Jeremy Schwartz asks Prof. Siegel his views on the current weekly market activity and his reaction to The Fed. (8:05) Jeremy joins Matt and JC live from the Future Proof Festival to talk about Halo Investing and the markets. JC starts off by explaining how they approach the market and read trends. He talks about the latest presidential climate and how it could affect the market into the future. JC continues with his view on current market dynamics. Matt joins in by highlighting what his clients are experiencing during this market activity at Halo Investing. JC continues with his opinion about the dollar's impact on trends, regional banks and common mistakes investors make. Matt talks more about Halo, its platform and its structured notes. He discusses perception of notes and how he handles the key challenges. Matt continues to discuss the education of notes and how they can help clients make better investments. Jeremy announces the collaboration between Halo and Wisdom Tree. Matt and Jeremy talk about the collaboration, its uses and the excitement they both have for this new project together.

Guests: JC Parets is the founder of Allstarcharts.com and is one of the most widely followed Technical Analysts in the world. In 2008, JC earned his Chartered Market Technician designation (CMT). His work has been featured regularly on Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, ABC, CNN, Wall Street Journal and many other financial media outlets around the world. JC specializes in finding the most opportunistic risk vs reward propositions while at the same time bringing a top/down approach to the marketplace whose wide spectrum is rivaled by few. In 2017, JC Launched Technical Analysis Radio, a podcast dedicated to Technical Analysis and the Technicians who practice it.

Matt Radgowski has extensive work experience in the financial industry. Matt currently serves as the Chief Operations Officer at Halo Investing, a position they have held since 2022. Prior to this, they worked at Morningstar, where they held various roles including Head of Advisor Solutions from 2020 to 2022 and Chief Operating Officer, Investment Management from 2013 to 2020. Before joining Morningstar, they served as the Managing Director at Horizon Investments from 2012 to 2013. Matt also held the positions of Managing Director at Wilshire Associates from 2006 to 2012, Vice President at Ibbotson Associates from 1999 to 2006, and Regional Vice President at Aegon from 1996 to 1999. Matt attended the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign from 1992 to 1996, where they earned a Bachelor's Degree in Accounting.

Learn more at:

https://haloinvesting.com/

https://allstarcharts.com/about/jc-parets/

Follow Matt on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/matt-radgowski-8852b2b7

Follow JC on Twitter: @allstarcharts

Show from 9/15/23

Prof. Siegel joins Jeremy Schwartz with a breakdown of a very big week for the market. He does note an increase in inflation but it shouldn’t result in an increase for next week. He also discusses the large rise in oil, noting long lines at gas stations and the impact the rise will have. He previews the upcoming week with a prediction that it will be hawkish. He finishes with a quick comment about the Arm IPO. (12:03) Professor Robert Novy-Marx starts off by talking about his educational past and how he got into his finance career today. He gives us his thoughts on value research and why he has confidence in it as a factor. He also details that the underperformance of value stocks is due to sector tilts. Jeremy asks Robert about his thoughts about the research on intangible assets and tech investments that are not capitalized. He goes into detail on the difference between gross profits versus net income. They discuss how Robert will be presenting at the Wharton School’s Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research at its 2023 Frontiers in Quantitative Finance Conference next friday. He talks about the paper he will be presenting called Reversals and the Return to Liquidity Provisions.

Guest: Professor Robert Novy-Marx earned the Fama/DFA Prize for the best capital markets/asset pricing paper in the Journal of Financial Economics (2012 and 2013), the Smith-Breeden Prize for the best capital markets paper in the Journal of Finance (2011), the Spängler IQAM Prize for the best paper in the Review of Finance (2011), and the Mill's Prize for the best paper in Real Estate Economics. Novy-Marx is also a former professional triathlete, a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research and taught at the Booth School of Business before coming to the Simon School.

Learn more at: https://simon.rochester.edu/digital-measures-faculty/robert-novy-marx

Follow Robert on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/robert-novy-marx-b931a6174