Show from 04/05/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel report on another positive week in the market. The Prof notes the payroll report was strong. He was happy to see average hourly work increase. The Prof mentions to watch for CPI, PPI and commodity pricing in the coming weeks. Peter joins in quickly to state he isn’t as concerned as Professor Siegel about the commodity prices. He is worried about the labor market however. (16:26) Peter and Jeremy continue on to discuss Peter's notes on the odds of a global recession. Jeremy asks about the growth of M2 and if it ties into banking dynamics. Peter covers sectors he favors at this time given the state of the economy and his early prediction of a recession. Peter explains what a Macro Quant model is and how his team uses it. The two discuss where rates could potentially go moving forward given the strong restrictions at the time.

Guest: Peter is currently BCA Research’s Chief Global Strategist and Research Director. Since joining BCA Research in 2010, he has served as Managing Editor of The Bank Credit Analyst as well as helping to develop and launch BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer Service. Peter focuses on analyzing global economic and financial market trends. Prior to BCA Research, Peter worked as a Senior Global Economist with Goldman Sachs. Peter has also spent time in the research department of the International Monetary Fund. Peter has a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from McMaster University, a Master of Science from the London School of Economics, and a PhD in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Learn more about Peter at: https://www.bcaresearch.com/about-us/our-strategists/peter-berezin-gis

Follow Peter on X(Twitter): @PeterBerezinBCA

Show from 03/29/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this holiday special by discussing the ups and downs of this week's market. Above average PPI and CPI as well as low retail sales and housing reports balance out for a strong uptrend in the market. The Prof states that indicators do not point to inflation returning. (7:47) Chris joins Jeremy this week to talk about everything that’s happening with the banks. Chris starts off with his opinion on what the Prof had previously stated and the stock markets current position. Jeremy asks Chris about commercial real estate write downs and what the real issue might be there. Chris discusses what it will take to make changes to the bank industry and why major events create catalysts for improvement. Jeremy asks if the Fed can bail out the banks if they reduce rates. Chris comments on current housing prices and why prices remain high in some areas. Chris talks about the new index he is creating and the services he provides.

Guest: Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and author who lives in New York. He is Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and focuses on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors. Christopher is a contributing editor at National Mortgage News. He’s a general securities principal and member of FINRA. From 2014 through 2017, Christopher was Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, where he was responsible for ratings by the Financial Institutions and Corporate Ratings Groups. He was a principal of Institutional Risk Analytics from 2003 through 2013.

Learn more about Chris at: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Follow Chris on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen

Show from 03/29/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this holiday weekend with positive reflections on the market. Inflation numbers came out as expected. The Prof notes a surprise rise in personal spending and a decline in the housing prices. (7:20) Dan joins Jeremy and Chris Gannatti to discuss where we are in the current tech cycle. The group talks about the Metaverse, AI development and collaborations between Google and Apple. Jeremy asks if they think there will be competition in the infrastructure as time goes on. The three discuss the potential benefits companies get by investing in Nvidia. Dan and Chris also comment on overseas risks involved with tech and lack of demand from Asia.

Guest: Daniel Ives is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities since 2018. Dan has been a tech analyst on Wall Street for over two decades covering the software and the broader technology sector. He spent the first few years of his career as a financial analyst at HBO and then received his MBA in Finance before becoming a globally known technology equity research analyst and Managing Director with FBR Capital Markets for 16 years, focusing on the enterprise software/hardware sectors including cyber security, cloud computing, big data technology, and the mobile landscape. A major area of his research focus is electric vehicles and disruptive technology over the next decade.

Learn more about Dan at: https://www.wedbush.com/analysts/daniel-ives/

Follow Dan on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/daniel-ives-542321a8

Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe

Follow him on x(Twitter): @CGannatti

Show from 03/22/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss this week's market and Powels dovish announcement. The Prof states that the Fed believes trends are decreasing however he feels the economy is still moving along nicely. He notes that deflationary forces have begun to ease up. David joins to give his market opinion alongside the Prof as the two discuss their opposing views. (23:42) David continues with Jeremy to talk about how he forecasts the market with his business. Jeremy asks David about consumer sales and how it’s affecting some of the luxury brands. David touches on topics like the employment report, and recent comments from Bullard. He gives his case on why he loves the Japanese Market. David also talks about India as another alternative market to China.

Guest: David is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research. Prior to Rosenberg Research, David was Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. from 2009 to 2019. From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York. During this time, he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row. Mr. Rosenberg is a frequent contributor to major financial newspapers and publications in North America and makes regular TV appearances in the financial media. He received both a Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Learn more about David at: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

Follow David on X(Twitter): @EconguyRosie

Show from 03/15/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dig in this week on the most current market information, starting off by talking about the CPI and PPI outcomes. The Prof states the market seems to have bottomed out and is not going lower. Tom and Professor Seigel agree that the commercial real estate market has really suffered. (13:31) Jeremy continues on with Tom who gives us a breakdown of what Ready Capital is all about. Tom talks through a normal transaction cycle and explains bridge financing. He comments on how interest rates have impacted the commercial real estate market. Jeremy asks about commercial mortgage REITs and the discounts people are seeing. Tom also gives us more details on how their SBA loans work and what pressures he sees in the banking community.

Guest: Thomas Capasse serves as Chairman of our board of directors, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer. Mr. Capasse is also a Principal and co-founder of Ready Capital’s external manager, Waterfall Asset Management, LLC. Prior to founding our Manager, Mr. Capasse managed the principal finance groups at Greenwich Capital from 1995 until 1997, Nomura Securities from 1997 until 2001, and Macquarie Securities from 2001 until 2004. Mr. Capasse has significant and long standing experience in the securitization market as a founding member of Merrill Lynch’s ABS Group (1983—1994) with a focus on MBS transactions (including the initial Subprime Mortgage and Manufactured Housing ABS) and experience in many other ABS sectors. Mr. Capasse began his career as a fixed income analyst at Dean Witter and Bank of Boston. Mr. Capasse received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Bowdoin College in 1979.

Learn more about Thomas at: https://readycapital.com/professionals/thomas-capasse/

Follow Thomas on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/tom-capasse-6470782

Show from 03/08/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin by discussing this week's exciting market moves. The Prof says this week’s employment report is very good, revising the shocking report from January. He continues by diving into the Nvidia stock and his 10 year prediction confirmation. (11:17) Art joins Jeremy to discuss everything oil and energy. He begins by talking about energy blindness and energies overall underrepresentation in economic importance. Jeremy asks about natural gas, its excess production and Europe's involvement. The two discuss the Bakken break-even, if technology will increase production and drilling wells too close together. Art also talks about renewables and policies we are exploring that might not be the best.

Guest: Art Berman is an energy consultant with 40 years in petroleum geology and a degree in Middle Eastern history. His comparative inventory approach is a guiding light for traders, investors, and policymakers. Art is an adjunct lecturer at the University of Houston, an expert witness, and a keynote speaker. His clientele spans from ambitious investors to globe-spanning corporations.

Learn more about Art at: https://www.artberman.com

Follow Art on X(Twitter): @aeberman12

Show from 03/01/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin with an old saying “make the trend your friend”. The Prof gives us a detailed look at this week's market data. He continues talking about the interview he listened to of Austan Goolsbee. (11:41) Jeremy is joined by Jared as they discuss his book and current opinions on today's market. Jared goes into detail about his book on personal financing and why he decided to write about a stress free balanced approach rather than extreme suggestions. Jared emphasizes the fun of making more money instead of cutting expenses. He covers many topics from the housing market to car purchases and how it affects personal finances. Jared also covers student loans, saving and investing, holding onto gold and why bitcoin doesn’t work with his model.

Guest: Jared Dillian is a writer, author, DJ, and speaker. His newsletters include The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals, and We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards, which is about everything that is depraved, especially finance, culture, music and sex. His books include Street Freak, All the Evil of This World, Those Bastards, and No Worries.

Learn more about Jared at: https://www.jareddillian.com/

Follow Jared on X(Twitter): @dailydirtnap

Show from 02/23/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel jump right in to talk about the blow out week for tech. The Prof touches base on the job markets decrease and the mention of rate cuts by the Fed. Nvidia brought the entire tech stock back up this week with their demand for semiconductors. The Prof does not think that this is a bubble and that the evaluation of Nvidia is correct. (9:35) Jeremy is joined this week by Charles, CIO of Syz Group. The two continue by discussing the rise in tech in comparison to past tech bubbles. Jeremy asks Charles about the ESG mentality and if it needs to change. Charles gives his opinion on the Russia/Ukraine situation and how it may play out over the next few years. Jeremy dives into the sentiment of investing in Chinese stocks. Charles also discusses the state of currency around the world and bitcoin.

Guest: Charles-Henry Monchau joined Bank Syz from FlowBank, where he was Chief Investment Officer and Chief Commercial Officer. Prior to this, he had been CIO of Al Mal Capital (Dubai Investments), Head of the Asset Allocation Team for the EMEA region at Deutsche Bank and held various C-level positions in Geneva, Zurich, Dubai, Nassau and Paris. Charles-Henry has an Executive MBA from IE Business School and an MSc in Finance from HEC Geneva. He is also a CFA, CMT, CAIA and CIIA charter-holder.

Learn more about Charles at: https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news/bank-syz-appoints-chief-investment-officer

Follow Charles on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096

Show from 02/16/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel begin this week's episode discussing the big data on inflation. The Prof gets into detail on the reports, giving us an indepth look at the current market. The two also talk about the explosive moves in Small-Caps. (7:47) Jeremy is joined by Chris to talk about banks and the current situation in America. Chris talks about whether he would prefer to be net long or net short. The two discuss their opinions on big banking crisis issues from the past. Chris talks about the politics behind solving the banking problems and its troubled history. Jeremy brings up where Chris would rate banks in America and what issues they currently have today. Chris also deep dives into mortgages, the current home market, as well as the index he’s created and the services he provides.

Guest: Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and writer who lives in New York. He is Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and focuses on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors. Christopher is the author of several books, is contributing editor at National Mortgage News, and edits The Institutional Risk Analyst. He appears in a variety of other publications and media. Chris is a member of the Economic Advisory Committee of FINRA and is a Senior Advisor at J.V.B. Financial Group in New York.

Learn more about Chris at: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Follow Chris on X(Twitter): @rcwhalen

Show from 02/09/24

Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel start off by talking about the light market week. The Prof notes that next week will be much bigger following the release of many important reports. He is confident that if the Fed continues to see the data slowing, they will lower rates. The Prof goes into detail on the tech market, the excitement around AI and how it has been trending recently. (9:59) Daniel joins the conversation with Jeremy to discuss dividends in this AI driven world. Jeremy asks Daniel about historical dividend by-backs and pivotal moments that caused people to turn away from them. Daniel talks about growth versus dividends. He explains how harvested capital gains are not the same as dividends. Jeremy asks Daniel about what types of yields he prefers to see in the markets. Daniel mentions geopolitics, his opinion on investing worldwide and his disapproval for government intervention in by-backs.

Guest: Daniel Peris, Ph.D., CFA oversees dividend-focused portfolios for a major US asset manager. Before transitioning into asset management, Peris was a historian focused on modern Russian history.

Learn more about Daniel at: https://strategicdividendinvestor.com/about-the-author/

Follow Daniel on X(Twitter): @HistoryInvestor