When this episode goes live four days from now, Donald Trump will have been sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, after having served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.

Many countries around the world are closely watching to identify changes in US policy and assess their impact. China is one of those countries. As presidential candidate Donald Trump threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the United States. He also proposed revoking China’s Most Favored Nation trading status and banning China from buying US farmland. He pledged to curtail Chinese espionage and theft of intellectual property. On some occasions Trump praised Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and predicted that they would get along very well. In the past few months, Trump and Xi have been in communication through their representatives.

What approach will Beijing take toward Trump’s presidency this time around? Is China in a stronger or weaker position than it was in during Trump’s first term? What is the likely trajectory of US-China relations in the coming four years?

To discuss these questions, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, who is the Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies in the School of Foreign Service and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in US-China Studies at Georgetown University. He served seven years in President Obama’s NSC first as director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, and then as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Asia. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:00] Lessons Beijing Learned from Trump’s First Term 

[04:11] Perceptions on the Balance of Economic Power 

[07:30] China’s Reaction to American Tariffs

[09:39] China Hurting the United States without Hurting Itself

[11:48] Starting Anew with the Trump Administration 

[13:38] An Early US-China Meeting

[16:46] An Inverse Bilateral Relationship 

[18:56] China Helping with the War in Ukraine

[25:18] Chinese Use of Force Against Taiwan 

[29:22] US Alliances Under the Trump Administration

[35:00] What worries Evan Medeiros in the US-China relationship?